2010 State Elections in Germany

[KuntaKinte]

A new Forsa poll has CDU/CSU-FDP at only 38%. That is the lowest share of vote for the "centre-right" in a Forsa poll since March 2000, on the peak of the cdu contributions scandal.

Union: 32 ( -3 from the last Forsa poll)
SPD: 27 (+3)
FDP: 6 (-1)
Greens: 16 (+1)
Left: 11 (-1)
Others: 8 (+1)

Black-Yellow: 38:54
Red-Green: 43:49
Black-Green: 48:44

[Middle-aged Europe]

NRW update:

SPD/Greens/FDP and SPD/Greens/Left have both failed. Seems like Grand coalition now.

[minionofmidas]

Roland Roland Roland

Gone Gone Gone


Chose a date of his own making before the party could turn on him. Just-as-dreadful Volker Bouffier to succeed.

[Tender Branson]

Just-as-dreadful Volker Bouffier to succeed.

Is he a French ?

[Franzl]

Bouffier is great

[minionofmidas]

I always figured he was probably a descendant of Huguenots, but never tried to check.

He was born in Gießen and is a Protestant, so...

[Middle-aged Europe]

After the sudden resignation of Horst Köhler, the Federal Assembly has to elect a new president within 30 days, starting today.

CDU and FDP still hold a majority in the Assembly so the next president will be probably from the CDU again.

In the meantime, the current president of the Bundesrat (and mayor of Bremen) Jens Böhrnsen (SPD) will serve as acting head of state.

[minionofmidas]

Not news anymore, just unreported here.

But a traffic light in NRW is once again an option.

[minionofmidas]

Decentish blog article on the meeja Gauck campaign (in German, sorry).

http://mspr0.de/?p=1366

I don't agree that a Gauck win would mean the formal end of the coalition within a short time, of course.
Though it might well prove a "this government will never be popular again" point a la Bush late 2005.

[Tender Branson]

The Merkel government is dropping to record lows ...

New Infratest dimap poll released today:

CDU/CSU: 31% (-3)
SPD: 29% (+6)
Greens: 16% (+5)
Left: 12% (nc)
FDP: 6% (-9)
Others: 6% (nc)

Government: 37% (-12)
Opposition: 57% (+11)

[Tender Branson]

2 new Presidential polls by Forsa and Infratest dimap:

Joachim Gauck (SPD/Greens): 40-42%
Christian Wulff (CDU/CSU/FDP): 31-32%
Luc Jochimsen (Left): 3%

Germans want opposition president in blow to Merkel

German voters prefer the opposition's candidate for president -- an anti-communist activist from East Germany  -- to Angela Merkel's choice, a poll showed on Wednesday, dealing a fresh blow to the chancellor.

The Forsa survey showed Joachim Gauck, proposed for the largely ceremonial post by the Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens, won the support of 42 percent of Germans asked, compared with 32 percent for conservative Christian Wulff.

A special assembly, made up of lawmakers from the Bundestag lower house and an equal number of delegates appointed by Germany's 16 states, will elect a new president on June 30 after last week's shock resignation of Horst Koehler. He quit after he was criticized for saying foreign military action by the German army also served economic interests.

The vote is shaping up as a big test for Merkel who has been dogged by falling popularity, policy spats in her center-right coalition and accusations of weak leadership both domestically and within the euro zone during the global debt crisis.

A failure by Merkel to push through Wulff, the 50-year-old smooth-talking conservative premier of the state of Lower Saxony, would be widely viewed as a major defeat for her.

Merkel's coalition of conservatives and the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) have a majority in the assembly but victory is not certain, especially in view of the public and media mood.

Der Spiegel weekly and top-selling Bild am Sonntag back Gauck, a former Protestant pastor who played an important role in the democracy movement in the communist East. After reunification he won respect when, as head of the archives of the loathed Stasi East German secret police, he oversaw the release of files to victims.

One problem for Merkel is that the assembly delegates chosen by German states are unpredictable as they are not formally aligned to parties.

In addition, some FDP members from eastern German states have said they will not necessarily back Wulff, even though the FDP leadership has given him its blessing.

This is partly a result of growing anger in FDP ranks at the behavior of Merkel's conservatives.

Last month Merkel unceremoniously ditched tax cuts her party had agreed with the FDP in a coalition deal signed just six months earlier. The FDP had fought the election on tax cuts.

She also let the Bavarian conservative Christian Social Union (CSU) torpedo her FDP health minister's plans for a major health reform last week.

Since then, a war of words has erupted with an FDP lawmaker likening the CSU to a destructive "wild sow" only for a senior CSU politician to accuse the FDP of being a "bunch of clowns."

The Forsa poll also showed support for the FDP slumping to 5 percent, down 2 percentage points from the last poll and nearly 10 percentage points since September's election.

It also for the first time put Merkel behind charismatic Defense Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg in personal ratings.

The debate over the president has reflected badly on Merkel.

Not only has strong support for Gauck raised questions about her judgment in proposing a career politician like Wulff but she also faces attack for playing a part in Koehler's departure.

Critics say her failure to defend him from media criticism contributed to his decision to quit, especially as he had been Merkel's personal choice for president back in 2004.

Media have also reported that Wulff's nomination was a blow to Merkel whose first choice, Labour Minister Ursula von der Leyen, was blocked by conservative state premiers.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE65825T20100609

[minionofmidas]

They didn't poll Frank Rennicke?

[minionofmidas]

Just for hilarity's sake...

infratest dimap poll of Berlin, state vote intentions (election is in 2011)

SPD 25 % CDU    25 % Greens    23 % FDP    5 %  Left    17 % other 5 %     

[Middle-aged Europe]

I've got to admit that the Northrhine-Westphalian SPD's course of action makes no sense whatsoever.

They have now offically ruled out any option they had:
- a coalition with Greens and Left
- a coalition with Greens and FDP
- a coalition with CDU
- a minority government with Greens
- early elections

This means that the current CDU/FDP government stays in office indefinitely, without having a majority in parliament. Please tell me that there's a strategy behind this...

[DL]

I've got to admit that the Northrhine-Westphalian SPD's course of action makes no sense whatsoever.

They have now offically ruled out any option they had:
- a coalition with Greens and Left
- a coalition with Greens and FDP
- a coalition with CDU
- a minority government with Greens
- early elections

This means that the current CDU/FDP government stays in office indefinitely, without having a majority in parliament. Please tell me that there's a strategy behind this...

My German is a bit rusty, but from what i read in the German papers it doesn't sound like the SPD "ruled out" all of those combinations, but rather that the talks broke down in each case. The reality is that the SPD is in the strongest position to lead a government and that no government can be formed without them - unless of course the CDU and FDP made a coalition deal with the Linke Party (not likely lol). I think they are playing the other parties off against each other until someone breaks under the pressure and agrees to a deal with the SPD that is on the SPD's terms.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The reality is that the SPD is in the strongest position to lead a government and that no government can be formed without them - unless of course the CDU and FDP made a coalition deal with the Linke Party (not likely lol).

Or the Greens change their mind on Jamaica at some point. The SPD must be pretty confident that it won't happen. Granted, it's definitely less likely than in Saarland or Hamburg.

I think they are playing the other parties off against each other until someone breaks under the pressure and agrees to a deal with the SPD that is on the SPD's terms.

I'd say the SPD tried a similar approach in Hesse. It ended in early elections which were won by CDU and FDP. Granted, much had to do with the impression that the SPD had broken (or lied about) their promises concerning a cooperation with the Left there. And the SPD had failed twice in installing a SPD/Green/Left government rather spectacularly.

Still, the SPD is playing a risky game. I see two dangers:

- The SPD could be perceived as unable (or unwilling) to from a government, despite the fact that they had three or four options to choose from.

- If this happens, the SPD could take the blame for letting Northrhine-Westphalia hang in a limbo for several months or even a year.

[Middle-aged Europe]

After the termination of the SPD/Green/FDP talks the Greens are now pissed that the SPD doesn't even want to try to install a SPD/Green minority government in NRW. Strategy and motives (if existent) of SPD leader Hannelore Kraft are still unclear. It almost seems as if she's already burnt out only a month after the state election.

In general, German politics are kind of depressing at the moment. Roland Koch resigns (not that I'll miss that SOB), Horst Köhler resigns, Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg was apparently thinking about resignation, the Merkel government is more concerned with being at each others' throats than anything else, and now Hannelore Kraft doesn't even want to govern NRW anymore. The political elite either consists of people who just don't feel like it anymore or who are actively working to bring their own party down in a somewhat masochistic way. Must be a good time for anarchists.

Well, at least the Greens are keeping their things together. Which still astonishes me. They're almost like an island of sanity and tranquility. But they're"only" polling at 15-18% so that doesn't change much about the overall situation. And compared to the rest of the bunch even the Left Party is in a very good shape. The Left appears to be the second-most stable party... how did it come to that?


Anyway, here's next week's SPIEGEL cover ("STOP IT!"):

[DL]

What I find remarkable in German politics is how when  the "grand coalition" was formed in 2005 everyone said it could never last and that it was a recipe for disaster etc...but in the end it lasted a full four years and by the end of it Merkel was just about the most popular chancellor in post-war German history.

Then she finally got what she always wanted - a clear majority for a black/yellow "bumblebee" coalition with the FDP (watch out what you wish for - you might get it!). Everyone thought this would be easy street for Merkel since her CDU and the FDP are both right of centre parties that tend to see eye to eye on most things anyways - plus by being by far the biggest party in the coalition - the CDU now has most of the cabinet positions etc... and yet....ever since the bumble coalition took power - it has been straight downhill for Merkel. Now she is ridiculously unpopular getting some of the worst ratings ever for a CDU leader. It turns out that it was easier to get along with the SPD than it is with the FDP.

Can any Germans here explain what happened? 

[Middle-aged Europe]

What I find remarkable in German politics is how when  the "grand coalition" was formed in 2005 everyone said it could never last and that it was a recipe for disaster etc...but in the end it lasted a full four years and by the end of it Merkel was just about the most popular chancellor in post-war German history.

Then she finally got what she always wanted - a clear majority for a black/yellow "bumblebee" coalition with the FDP (watch out what you wish for - you might get it!). Everyone thought this would be easy street for Merkel since her CDU and the FDP are both right of centre parties that tend to see eye to eye on most things anyways - plus by being by far the biggest party in the coalition - the CDU now has most of the cabinet positions etc... and yet....ever since the bumble coalition took power - it has been straight downhill for Merkel. Now she is ridiculously unpopular getting some of the worst ratings ever for a CDU leader. It turns out that it was easier to get along with the SPD than it is with the FDP.

Can any Germans here explain what happened?  

Uh, well, fiirst of all, Merkel and Westerwelle aren't leaders. That didn't affect the Grand coalition so much because a Grand coalition needs a moderator and not a leader. Merkel is a good moderator, but a bad leader. And Westerwelle is more of a demagogue than a actual leader. He's good at holding speeches and staging events more than anything else.

In addition, both parties probably have drifted apart between 1998 and 2009. The FDP became more and more stubborn and tenacious with their "lower taxes! government is bad!" ideology during their decade as opposition party. At the same time, the CDU has undergone process a social-democratization (as some conservative critics call it) during Merkel's term as chairwoman... especially during the four years of Grand coalition.

So we have a coalition led by a moderator and a demagogue who are pursuing diametrically opposed goals, at least to some extent. Everything's a bit dysfunctional.

[minionofmidas]

And the Limburg-Weilburg district FDP officially calls for Westerwelle's head.

[KuntaKinte]

News from North Rhine Westfalia:

After weeks of very strange tactics of the Social Democrats, they now finally decided to build a minority government with the Greens. If they don't mess it up, Hannelore Kraft should be minister president before July the 13th.

[Middle-aged Europe]

News from North Rhine Westfalia:

After weeks of very strange tactics of the Social Democrats, they now finally decided to build a minority government with the Greens. If they don't mess it up, Hannelore Kraft should be minister president before July the 13th.

Yeah, Kraft must have given in to the pressure from the Greens and the federal SPD. After everything that happened (or rather not happened) I'm not sure anymore if she's the right one for the job though. But it's either her or Rüttgers.

[Tender Branson]

Merkel Job Approval down to 40% now, with 60% disapproving.



Defense Minister Guttenberg is the most popular, with a 68-26 approval rating.

Westerwelle is the least popular, with a 20-74 approval rating (LOL).

Current voting intention for the Bundestag:



Direct vote for President:

[Tender Branson]

The composition of the electoral college is now complete:

Bundestag & States:

CDU/CSU: 496
SPD: 333
FDP: 148
Greens: 129
Left: 124
Free Voters: 10
NPD: 3
SSW: 1

Total: 1244

Bundestag:

CDU/CSU: 239
SPD: 146
FDP: 93
Left: 76
Greens: 68
Free Voters: -
NPD: -
SSW: -

Total: 622

States:

CDU/CSU: 257
SPD: 187
Greens: 61
FDP: 55
Left: 48
Free Voters: 10 (Bayern)
NPD: 3 (2 Sachsen, 1 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern)
SSW: 1 (Schleswig-Holstein)

Total: 622

[Tender Branson]

They didn't poll Frank Rennicke?

The Liedermacher ?

I can already predict how many votes out of 1244 he´ll get:

3

PS: Yeah, I would also like to see him included in the polls. Don´t think he could get more than 3% or so.