I told you guys the Dem wave is building. Maybe next time you'll listen.
Secondly, if there's a really a democratic gubernatorial wave, then we'd expect incumbents such as Nikki Haley, Susana Martinez, and Terry Branstad to be in more trouble. We'd expect Walker and Snyder to be in Lean D races. We'd expect people such as Coakley and Hickenlooper to be close to safe, and we'd expect people like Malloy and Crist to be in far better shape. In order for a wave to occur, you need a strong uniform effect across the country, not just a desirable effect in a few select races.
This is correct, in my opinion. But I’ll amend it just a bit by pointing out the fact that Walker and Snyder may indeed find themselves in D-leaning races now. But that has more to do with localized influences and less to do with the national environment. It is why I could see, for example, Tillis losing in North Carolina and the GOP still winning the Senate, or Hickenlooper losing even in a non-wave election. In Colorado, North Carolina, Michigan, and Wisconsin—and Kansas, too--a lot has happened over the last couple of years that creates a whole new political environment that is
almost insulated from the national one.
The catch, though, is that it isn’t completely insulated. A moderate GOP wave will probably save the seats of Walker and Snyder. I tend to think that this will be a stronger than expected GOP year, and I think that over the next several weeks a lot of truly wild things will happen in the gubernatorial races. The Senate races are pretty much set—will IA, CO, NC, and AK continue drifting to the right; will Pryor keep it close in AR; will GA and LA stay competitive? But there are probably at least ten gubernatorial races—at minimum a whopping 20% of the country—that could truly go in either direction right now.
Given the fact that a divided Washington has made governors even more important in terms of the policy direction of the country, the GOP could actually win the Senate this year and still have an absolutely terrible year by losing key governorships in the Midwest and failing to make key pick-ups.
