Why Trump could legitamately do well with African-American voters. (user search)
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  Why Trump could legitamately do well with African-American voters. (search mode)
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Poll
Question: What percentage of African-American voters do you think would go to Trump?
#1
20%+
 
#2
19%
 
#3
18%
 
#4
17%
 
#5
16%
 
#6
15%
 
#7
14%
 
#8
13%
 
#9
12%
 
#10
11% (The percentage Bush got against Kerry)
 
#11
10%
 
#12
9%
 
#13
8%
 
#14
7%
 
#15
6% (The percentage Romney got against Obama)
 
#16
5%
 
#17
4%
 
#18
3%
 
#19
Purple heart%
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 244

Author Topic: Why Trump could legitamately do well with African-American voters.  (Read 12619 times)
hopper
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,414
United States


« on: June 05, 2016, 06:30:45 PM »

Trump might do terribly with Blacks voters, but there is no Republican who would have done better than him.
Well Kasich for one could have gotten 12-15% of the Black Vote.
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hopper
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,414
United States


« Reply #1 on: June 05, 2016, 06:36:20 PM »

It doesn't matter, African Americans are only 12.6 % of the US population. So he can win and get 0 % of the black vote and still win.
No, Ohio and Virginia Romney lost because of the Black Vote in 2012. If Romney could have gotten 10% of the Black Vote in both states he could have carried them. Instead he got 6% of the Black Vote in VA and 4% in OH. In 2004 Bush W. won 15% of the Black Vote in Ohio and won 13% in Virginia.
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hopper
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,414
United States


« Reply #2 on: June 05, 2016, 06:45:05 PM »

I predict Trump will win 8% of the Black Vote.
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hopper
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,414
United States


« Reply #3 on: June 05, 2016, 06:53:30 PM »

So, I decided to go beyond all this excellent #analysis and look at some actual data.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/184547/clinton-favorability-strong-among-black-americans.aspx

Turns out Clinton is super popular in the AA community with an 80-12 approval rate while Trump is super unpopular with an approval rate of 20-68. And before someone says that's good for a Republican it was actually the largest negative margin of all Repbulican candidates and the absolute approval was similar to that of Bush, Christie, Huckabee, Paul, Santorum.

It has his approval rate as bad among blacks as among Hispanics, 81-15.

That Gallup poll is from a year ago. Don't you have a more recent poll?

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hopper
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,414
United States


« Reply #4 on: June 05, 2016, 07:06:14 PM »


There are a number of blacks who view Hispanic immigrants as competition for jobs and are not turned off by Trump's immigration stances.  More than some folks think. 

You are absolutely correct many Blacks are not turned off by his immigration stance. Rather they are turned off by his racism. It's possible to want to shut down illegal immigration without being a racist asshole like Trump. If you Republicans did that maybe you would have a chance. As a legal immigrant whose parents went through the process (I was a kid) I don't carry any water for illegals. But when you people start demonizing these people unfairly, you bet I'll come to their defense. Don't unfairly demonize people. It might not be good politics in the primary but it is in the general. Moreover, and most importantly, it's what a decent person would do.


Not correct.   Blacks haven't figured that out yet.  If they did they would have already started to leave the Dem's already.
 
When Trump says " make America great again' and the dishonest digesting media shows nothing but old white men with long hillbilly beards in the crowd, to us blacks we see that as "make America white again". 


Well "Make America Great Again" is a slogan that is used to make America more economically prosperous. Its has nothing to do with race/ethnicity. With that said I wouldn't vote for Trump because of his rhetoric towards Mexican Men with the rapist comment.
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hopper
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,414
United States


« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2016, 07:10:19 PM »

Yeah I guessed a few months ago that Trump would receive 8% of the Black Vote but I want to revise that down to 4% of the Black Vote now.
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hopper
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,414
United States


« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2016, 07:16:11 PM »

I think that Trump would get around 12% of the black vote. You guys have to remember that Bush got 11% of the black vote against Kerry, and Trump is a much better fit for black voters because of the reasons I listed.



Bush got 11% before the surge of new African-American voters following Obama's candidacy (see the rise in black turnout from 2004 to 2008, 2012). The blacks who gave Bush 11% are probably still voting GOP; the difference is that they're now being drowned by other blacks who just entered the electorate.
No there was an increase in Baby Boomer Black Women voting(the 45-64 year old age range) in 2012.
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hopper
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,414
United States


« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2016, 03:23:51 PM »


From a Republican perspective though, it was worth a shot. Their percentage of the Black vote was already a statistically insignificant part of the overall electorate, so they had nothing to lose by trying something new.
No its not an insignificant part of the electorate. The Black Vote won Obama Virginia, and Ohio in 2012 and maybe Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
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