2017 French Presidential Election

[parochial boy]

The other thread seems to have dissapeared (?) but today was quite important as the final candidates to have obtained 500 signatures have been declared; there will be 11 candidates standing in the first round (with numbers of signatures_:

ARTHAUD Nathalie   637   
ASSELINEAU François   587   
CHEMINADE Jacques   528   
DUPONT-AIGNAN Nicolas   707
FILLON François   3635   
HAMON Benoît   2039
LASSALLE Jean   708   
LE PEN Marine   627   
MACRON Emmanuel   1829
MELENCHON Jean-Luc   805
POUTOU Philippe 573

click here

Ouest France also has a pretty cool map where you can see where each candidate got their signature here

feel free to delete this if the old thread is about to make a comeback...

[Tender Branson]

Did someone delete the main thread or what ?

[DavidB.]

Haha, now I know how I lost about 50 posts overnight.

[Hash]

I was not active at the time that I guess the thread vanished - sometime quite late last night - so I'm at a loss as to what happened to it.

[Zinneke]

I was not active at the time that I guess the thread vanished - sometime quite late last night - so I'm at a loss as to what happened to it.

[hint]Its a good opportunity to do a rundown of the candidates on the front page of this thread [/hint]

[windjammer]

Well, who was the creator of the former thread?

[Zanas]

I think I was the OP from the other thread, but I don't know what happened.

[Antonio the Sixth]

...well, that is weird.

[MAINEiac4434]

Bizarre.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I think I was the OP from the other thread, but I don't know what happened.

https://web-beta.archive.org/web/20170108204647/https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?PHPSESSID=867b6895b62569a2c676d095a1d165cc&board=12.0

yes, you definitely were OP.

This is definitely a fault of the forum though - it's happened before where good discussion is permanently lost because of an accidental delete by mods or an OP.

[parochial boy]

I think I was the OP from the other thread, but I don't know what happened.

https://web-beta.archive.org/web/20170108204647/https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?PHPSESSID=867b6895b62569a2c676d095a1d165cc&board=12.0

yes, you definitely were OP.

This is definitely a fault of the forum though - it's happened before where good discussion is permanently lost because of an accidental delete by mods or an OP.

All those posts argung about whether Macron is left wing or not, just dissapeared

[Antonio the Sixth]

I think I was the OP from the other thread, but I don't know what happened.

https://web-beta.archive.org/web/20170108204647/https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?PHPSESSID=867b6895b62569a2c676d095a1d165cc&board=12.0

yes, you definitely were OP.

This is definitely a fault of the forum though - it's happened before where good discussion is permanently lost because of an accidental delete by mods or an OP.

All those posts argung about whether Macron is left wing or not, just dissapeared

I was quite proud of a few of mine.

[rob in cal]

  Well, obviously the culprit is Russian hacking.

[kyc0705]

I think I was the OP from the other thread, but I don't know what happened.

https://web-beta.archive.org/web/20170108204647/https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?PHPSESSID=867b6895b62569a2c676d095a1d165cc&board=12.0

yes, you definitely were OP.

This is definitely a fault of the forum though - it's happened before where good discussion is permanently lost because of an accidental delete by mods or an OP.

All those posts argung about whether Macron is left wing or not, just dissapeared

Does... does this mean we’re going to have that whole discussion over again?

[Figueira]

So, how likely is it that Macron is the ultimate winner?

[Tirnam]

If you look in the last two presidential election the polls around the 20th March were very close to the actual result.

A few example:
2012 (Ifop, 20th March): Hollande 28%, Sarkozy 27.5%, Le Pen 17,5% (second round: Hollande 54%). That was pretty close to the actual result
2007 (Ipsos, 22nd March): Sarkozy 30.5%, Royal 25.5%, Bayrou 18.5% (second round: Sarkozy 53%). Very close to the actual result

Of course 2002 is a perfect counterexample.

Now this election is particular:
-Abstention is, at this day, projected to be massive
-Many people who will vote are quite undecided (around 40% could change their minds)
-For the first time there will be 3 debates before the first round (the first is tomorrow). The debates could mobilize more people to vote and change the dynamics of the race.

Macron's voters were the most undecided voters a few weeks ago, that's no longer the case, but it's still between 50%-40% of them who could change their votes. That's why a poll yesterday indicated that Macron could be as low as 13.5% but as high as 35% in the first round.

For me I think that the probabilities of a Macron victory are around 60%

[Tirnam]

The TV set for tomorrow's debate

[DL]

People keep repeating that 40% of Macron voters could still change their minds. That may be true in theory and in response to a polling question. But in reality if a "soft Macron" voters actually did have second thoughts about Macron, where would they go? Who would they switch to? LePen? I don't think so...Fillon? Seems unlikely at this stage...I suppose some could drift back to Hamon...but apart from that where would they go?

[Lord Halifax]

People keep repeating that 40% of Macron voters could still change their minds. That may be true in theory and in response to a polling question. But in reality if a "soft Macron" voters actually did have second thoughts about Macron, where would they go? Who would they switch to? LePen? I don't think so...Fillon? Seems unlikely at this stage...I suppose some could drift back to Hamon...but apart from that where would they go?

They could simply abstain.

[DL]

Macron's voters tend to be more educated and politically aware...I can't see them abstaining en masse. And "how likely are you to change your mind about who to vote for?" Is a very different question from "how likely are you to cast a vote at all?"

[parochial boy]

On the old thread (RIP) there was a bit of discussion about the way young people were voting, and whether (or not), they were more inclined to vote FN than the rest of the population.

IFOP have now actually done some polling specifically of 18-25 year olds.

Key points are on pages 12 (first round) and page 15-16 (second round), but:

In the first round
Le Pen - 29% (2.5% better than all of France)
Macron - 28% (3% better)
Hamon - 15% (1% better)
Mélenchon - 14.5% (3% better)
Fillon - 11% (8% worse)

In the second round
Macron - 63%
Le Pen - 37%

Macron does 2.5% better than the whole of France. Out of a bunch of second round options, Mélenchon actually beats Le Pen 64-36; and Fillon by only 53-47.

So in conclusion, younger voters seem slightly more inclined to support Le Pen; but significantly more inclined to support the two left wing and one alleged left wing candidates.

[mgop]

i really can't see 63-37 in second round. most of fillon supporters will probably vote for le pen in the runoff and many of melanchon also.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

i really can't see 63-37 in second round. most of fillon supporters will probably vote for le pen in the runoff and many of melanchon also.

According to the last Ifop poll 43% of Melenchon voters will abstain, or blank vote on the second round, 45% will vote for Macron and only 13% would vote for Le Pen, and only 31% of Fillon voters will vote for Le Pen

[mgop]

i really can't see 63-37 in second round. most of fillon supporters will probably vote for le pen in the runoff and many of melanchon also.

According to the last Ifop poll 43% of Melenchon voters will abstain, or blank vote on the second round, 45% will vote for Macron and only 13% would vote for Le Pen, and only 31% of Fillon voters will vote for Le Pen

but if this negative campaign against fillon continues, more of his supporters will vote for le pen.

[Tirnam]

Also if 40% of Macron's voters could change their minds that's because he is polling high. It's more easy for Fillon to have a strong electorate when he is only at 19%.
Macron could lose some votes to Hamon and maybe Fillon, he could still win more from Hamon, 40% of Hamon's voters could also change their minds.

i really can't see 63-37 in second round. most of fillon supporters will probably vote for le pen in the runoff and many of melanchon also.

According to the polls only 5 to 10% of Mélenchon's voters would vote for Le Pen in a Macron/Le Pen runoff. A majority of them could abstain but not vote for Le Pen. I'm not even sure they will abstain, in the left the will to defeat Le Pen is stronger than abstention.

Odoxa poll, for France 2

Macron: 26.5% (-0.5 since March 3rd)
Le Pen: 26% (+0.5)
Fillon: 19% (=)
Hamon: 12.5% (-1.5)
Mélenchon: 10.5% (+0.5)

Second round
Macron 64% (+3), Le Pen 36%
Fillon 57% (-0.5), Le Pen 43%