Australia General Discussion

[BaconBacon96]

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2014/12/22/top-achievement-minister-women-was-carbon-tax-repeal-pm-says

...

...I don't even.

[BaconBacon96]

I think he wants to throw Labor off guard with this early date.

[BaconBacon96]

This is also real.

http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jan/26/prince-philip-angus-houston-named-australian-knights

And I told my mother she must have misheard when she said she heard it on the radio. Jesus Christ.

[BaconBacon96]

Mal Brough urged to challenge Tony Abbott for leadership -- if the election today goes badly, that is.

That's rather out of left field. I don't imagine there's been any polling done on him. He's also got that Slipper controversy hanging over his head.

[BaconBacon96]

Mal Brough urged to challenge Tony Abbott for leadership -- if the election today goes badly, that is.

That's rather out of left field. I don't imagine there's been any polling done on him. He's also got that Slipper controversy hanging over his head.

No, he's not doing to win.

He'd be doing a tester run, to show Abbott's weakness.

Ah huh. Well I look forward to seeing how weak he really is.

[BaconBacon96]

Given the result, Brough looks like he could go ahead with that challenge.

[BaconBacon96]

My prediction- After a stalking horse challenge from Mal Brough, Tony will resign. Then Bishop will be elected party leader unanimously with Turnbull as deputy. Swift, painless transition in time for the NSW poll in March.

^^^

This. Hockey will also be dumped as Treasurer and replaced with Turnbull.

[BaconBacon96]

Quite possibly. While obviously Turnbull might not sit well with much of the Liberal base, it's not as if they have anyone else to vote for.

What Bishop has going for her is her perceived strength on foreign policy, as in her handling of the MH17 disaster and ISIS.

[BaconBacon96]

For the reasons outlined by Polnut, plus the fact that Turnbull and Bishop have always been personally more popular than Abbott are why I think Abbott's going to go.

If they get rid of Hockey too, they can reduce the extent of their cuts and other unpopular economic policies.

[BaconBacon96]

What a farcical situation. The Administrator should dismiss the lot of them and call an election now.

[BaconBacon96]

Turnbull's just done a 'Politics in the Pub' thing on the Central Coast. Apparently he was blatantly flaunting his Prime Ministerial credentials.

[BaconBacon96]

Pyne was asked on the Today show if Abbott had the numbers. He stumbled and refused to say.

This is very telling, IMO.

[BaconBacon96]

Well looks like Bishop ain't running. Turnbull on the other hand ain't denying anything.

The question is, can they get the numbers for the spill motion? I'm not convinced they have them yet.

[BaconBacon96]

Overthrowing party leaders seem to be extremely easy, and unusually common, in the Australian system. Have their ever been any proposals to reform the rules (i.e., requring a full conference, party members vote, or simillar, rather than jut a majority of MPs)?.

Party members voting is now the policy of the Australian Labor Party, although MPs have weighted votes so they still have influence. It takes a month or so for the whole process.

[BaconBacon96]

Suggestions that the party meeting might be brought forward to Monday, to avoid an especially embarrassing Question Time. 

Wouldn't that reduce the time the dissidents have to lobby MPs and Senators to vote for the spill though? Perhaps that's the idea.

[BaconBacon96]

Does anyone know what time on Tuesday the meeting is scheduled?

[BaconBacon96]

Sky News reporting that Lawrence Springborg has been elected Leader of the Queensland LNP (again).

[BaconBacon96]

Turnbull has appeared outside his house and declared he supports the PM. Surely this means the spill motion will collapse tomorrow.

EDIT: He did leave open the possibility of running if the motion succeeds but surely this a blow to the spill's momentum.

[BaconBacon96]

Sinodinos is definitely the kind of politician who would orchestrate this kind of thing. I find it hard to believe this is purely a backbench revolt.

The smart thing for Turnbull to do if becomes PM would be to call an election within a short time of taking office, to catch Labor off guard and to get a new mandate for what will undoubtedly be a rather different Cabinet with somewhat different policies. It wouldn't even need to be a double dissolution it would just need to be soon, before his honeymoon period ends.

[BaconBacon96]

Indeed Abbott looking worried.

I was thinking about another issue that hasn't really been addressed. If Turnbull becomes leader and PM by a few votes that isn't exactly a resounding endorsement for him either. Can we trust a government led by him to be stable, even if the polls support him? I'm not sure if we can.

[BaconBacon96]

Anthony Albanese talking about a motion of no confidence if Turnbull becomes PM tomorrow...that's just silly Anthony.

[BaconBacon96]

Momentum for the spill motion seems to have grown extraordinarily over the past day. I'd be very surprised if it gets under 40 votes.  The chances of Abbott being dumped now have grown greatly. Either way, Abbott's position will be pretty much near untenable.

[BaconBacon96]

A little bit better for Abbott than I thought it would be in terms of votes. This is only going to prolong the drama though. This is far from over.

[BaconBacon96]

The question now is how long does Abbott last now? Six weeks? Three months? Six months? This can't continue indefinitely.

[BaconBacon96]

The party is already back in chaos. You've got Luke Simpkins out saying the GP Co-Payment is gone, while the senior ministers are saying otherwise.

Either way it looks bad. Ridiculous.