Wisconsin Megathread

[Mr.Phips]

I will be adding some maps and data on the Wisconsin State Legislature here soon!

Id love to see maps of the Wisconsin legislature, especially the Assembly.  I know that in 2010, Republicans somehow picked up a bunch of seats in districts that went for Obama with 60%+ of the vote in 2008.  There was even one that Republicans picked up that went 68% for Obama. 

Since the districts were changed around so much in the 2011 redistricting, this state is really hard to follow.  Did these Republicans survive reelection or were these seats made better for Repubicans somehow?

[Mr.Phips]

What are the best pickup opportunities for Senate Democrats in the coming years? If they're guaranteed to lose Senator Lehman's seat next year, that would give them a baseline of 14 seats to start off with, I assume.

The Schultz seat would probably be a near gimme if he retired.  Pretty much all of the swingy seats are held by Republicans with the exception of Dave Hanson. 

[Mr.Phips]

Senate District 3

Counties: Milwaukee 
Three Largest Entities: Milwaukee, West Allis, and Greenfield
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 41,753 (69.04%)/ Romney 18,076 (29.89%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 38,066 (65.64%)/ McCain 19,059 (32.87%)
Swing: 6.38% Democratic
Trend: 13.35% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+10/D+7

Representative: Tim Carpenter

Party: Democrat
Last Election: Tim Carpenter 23,401(61.09%)/ Annette Krznarich 14,796 (38.36%) 
Serving Since: 2003
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly
Education: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Bachelors)/ University of Wisconsin-Madison (Masters)
Birthday: N/A
Place of Birth: St. Francis, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes:  The interesting to note about this Safe Democratic seat is that it contains the highest percentage of Hispanics in any Senate seat in Wisconsin. A majority of the Hispanics in Milwaukee is of Puerto Rican dissent, but the number of Mexicans in the city is growing.  Hispanics make up 40.5% of the district. That number is expected to grow larger in the future and could possibly become the plurality by 2020. I would guess that that next Senator from this district would be Hispanic.

Assembly District 7

Counties: Milwaukee
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 16,372 (57.00%)/ Romney 11,957 (41.63%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 16,033 (56.44%)/ McCain 11,892 (41.86%)
Swing: 0.79% Democratic
Trend: 7.76% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+1/D+3

Representative: Daniel Riemer

Party: Democratic
Last Election: Uncontested (There was a write-in campaign by former Rep. Peggy Krusick, who lost to Riemer 2 to 1 in the primary, that failed miserably)
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Chicago
Birthday: 12/10/1986
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is an interesting district as Daniel Riemer, 26 years old, was able to defeat Rep. Peggy Krusick at a 2 to 1 margin. I am surprised that the Republicans didn’t run a candidate in this district in the general election, as it is only D+1. This will be one to watch in 2014 as you have a young Freshman, running in a close district and there is probably still some bad blood from knocking out a 20 year incumbent. 

Assembly District 8

Counties: Milwaukee
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 11,922 (86.64%)/ Romney 1,748 (12.7%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 9,644 (81.79%)/ McCain 2,019 (17.12%)
Swing: 9.27% Democratic
Trend: 16.24% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+27/D+28.5

Representative: Jocasta Zamarripa 

Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested 
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Birthday: 3/8/1976
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This Assembly District has the highest percentage of Hispanics in Wisconsin at 65.8%. Interesting historical fact is that this used to be a predominantly Polish area in Milwaukee. The make up of this district and the 9th was the result of the lawsuit Baldus et al  vs. Brennan et al. The court ruled that there needed to be one district were Hispanics could have a representative of their choosing rather then having the ability to influence two different districts. 

Assembly District 9

Counties: Milwaukee 
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 13,459 (74.81%)/ Romney 4,371 (24.30%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 12,389 (69.63%)/ McCain 5,148 (28.93%)
Swing: 9.81% Democratic
Trend: 16.78% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+15/D+12

Representative: Josh Zepnick

Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested 
Serving Since: 2003
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Bachelors)/ University of Minnesota-Twin Cities (Masters)
Birthday: 3/21/1968
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This districting also has a fairly large Hispanic plurality at 47.8%. It would not be surprising if a Hispanic wins this district whenever Rep. Zepnick chooses to retire.

Still hungry!!!

[Mr.Phips]

Senate District 3

Counties: Milwaukee  
Three Largest Entities: Milwaukee, West Allis, and Greenfield
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 41,753 (69.04%)/ Romney 18,076 (29.89%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 38,066 (65.64%)/ McCain 19,059 (32.87%)
Swing: 6.38% Democratic
Trend: 13.35% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+10/D+7

Senator: Tim Carpenter

Party: Democrat
Last Election: Tim Carpenter 23,401(61.09%)/ Annette Krznarich 14,796 (38.36%)  
Serving Since: 2003
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly
Education: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Bachelors)/ University of Wisconsin-Madison (Masters)
Birthday: N/A
Place of Birth: St. Francis, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes:  The interesting to note about this Safe Democratic seat is that it contains the highest percentage of Hispanics in any Senate seat in Wisconsin. A majority of the Hispanics in Milwaukee is of Puerto Rican dissent, but the number of Mexicans in the city is growing.  Hispanics make up 40.5% of the district. That number is expected to grow larger in the future and could possibly become the plurality by 2020. I would guess that that next Senator from this district would be Hispanic.

Assembly District 7

Counties: Milwaukee
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 16,372 (57.00%)/ Romney 11,957 (41.63%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 16,033 (56.44%)/ McCain 11,892 (41.86%)
Swing: 0.79% Democratic
Trend: 7.76% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+1/D+3

Representative: Daniel Riemer

Party: Democratic
Last Election: Uncontested (There was a write-in campaign by former Rep. Peggy Krusick, who lost to Riemer 2 to 1 in the primary, that failed miserably)
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Chicago
Birthday: 12/10/1986
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is an interesting district as Daniel Riemer, 26 years old, was able to defeat Rep. Peggy Krusick at a 2 to 1 margin. I am surprised that the Republicans didn’t run a candidate in this district in the general election, as it is only D+1. This will be one to watch in 2014 as you have a young Freshman, running in a close district and there is probably still some bad blood from knocking out a 20 year incumbent.  

Assembly District 8

Counties: Milwaukee
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 11,922 (86.64%)/ Romney 1,748 (12.7%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 9,644 (81.79%)/ McCain 2,019 (17.12%)
Swing: 9.27% Democratic
Trend: 16.24% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+27/D+28.5

Representative: Jocasta Zamarripa  

Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested  
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Birthday: 3/8/1976
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This Assembly District has the highest percentage of Hispanics in Wisconsin at 65.8%. Interesting historical fact is that this used to be a predominantly Polish area in Milwaukee. The make up of this district and the 9th was the result of the lawsuit Baldus et al  vs. Brennan et al. The court ruled that there needed to be one district were Hispanics could have a representative of their choosing rather then having the ability to influence two different districts.  

Assembly District 9

Counties: Milwaukee  
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 13,459 (74.81%)/ Romney 4,371 (24.30%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 12,389 (69.63%)/ McCain 5,148 (28.93%)
Swing: 9.81% Democratic
Trend: 16.78% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+15/D+12

Representative: Josh Zepnick

Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested  
Serving Since: 2003
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Bachelors)/ University of Minnesota-Twin Cities (Masters)
Birthday: 3/21/1968
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This districting also has a fairly large Hispanic plurality at 47.8%. It would not be surprising if a Hispanic wins this district whenever Rep. Zepnick chooses

Wait a minute.  Why would a district where Romney only got 42% of vote be "competitive" for Republicans in 2014 while seats that gave Obama a percentage in the high 40's only be competitive for Democrats in a "wave" and with an open seat. 

It looks like AD-07 is trending Dem and is about D+6.  Republicans are not winning a seat like that even in a 2010 like envrionment.  Even Kerry probably won there for God's sake. 

[Mr.Phips]

Using a state average PVI is deceptive.  Wisconsin is about D+3 when compared to the national average, meaning that by using your system of state PVI's, an R+1 district is actually going to be Dem tilting when looking at the big picture.  I would suggest switching to using national averages, rather than Wisconsin statewide averages for your PVI's.

[Mr.Phips]

Kind making some noise.

http://www.wpr.org/node/1063446

Not that he wouldn't be a good candidate, but his seat would basically be a free pickup for Republicans most likely.

Lol, no.

[Mr.Phips]

Evers and Holtz advance.  Evers had 60% even before Dane had been counted.

http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/tony-evers-lowell-holtz-advance-in-state-superintendent-race/article_b4a02654-0402-521a-91bf-c863d488c1be.html

Why do they waste money on a runoff when a candidate has 50%+?