Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[MaxQue]

Ridings to watch.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/in-quebec-election-three-way-races-could-make-the-difference/article4448511/

I doubt than Bonaventure could be described as a riding to watch.
It's quite safely Liberal, for me.

[MaxQue]

La Presse has encouragement for LBB.

Well, he runs for PQ, so, they encourage him, considering their political position.

[MaxQue]

So not really an independent candidate then eh?

So i figured this would happen: Francoise David to represent QS in the debates, smart move and i called it

http://tvanouvelles.ca/lcn/infos/national/archives/2012/07/20120731-205902.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Strange. To the last news, TVA wanted 3 debates, with Libs, PQ and CAQ only.
The other channels aren't agreeing, through.

[MaxQue]

It's not like I disagree with your assessment of the choices, I certainly wouldn't be enthused about voting for any of the three parties (but I'd hold my nose and vote PQ, as the least-worst, despite being a federalist)

That's exactly my position.

[MaxQue]

CAQ promised to delete all waiting in hospitals in two years, without giving any details.
They really think people will be that dumb to believe that?

[MaxQue]

Legault is taking a risk with Duchesneau.
I don't see Duchesneau obeying to a party line and to someone.

[MaxQue]

The bigger problem is his lack of a university degree.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-quebec-2012/201208/06/01-4562815-bureau-blouin-trop-jeune-pour-etre-ministre-dit-marois.php

How come? It's insulting for the working-class.
Well, I agree on Marois on this one, but not with your point.

EDIT: By the way, one minister, Norm MacMillan has no university degree.
There is no information if Lise Thériault (Labor Minister) has one, too.

[MaxQue]

In a normal world, Charest would be prosecuted for buying votes and improperly spending the taxpayers' money. It's ridiculous. And, for me, it is insulting. He raises tuition because "we need to be fiscally responsible", yet, he offers to spend ridiculous amounts of money on silly things.
It's vote-buying and it should be illegal.

Marois and nationalism. Nothing special there, she repeats what she is saying since months. Shouldn't swing anymore towards her, neither against her.

Legault promises more services and less taxes, which is dubious. Even if I agree than the non-progressive health tax should be scrapped.

[MaxQue]

Why in Quebec do the Conservatives and NDP not run candidates?

Because the federal and provincial parties are separate and different.
There is no official link between federal and provincial Liberals since the 60's.
The provincial Liberal leader is a former Conservative federal leader.

Tommy: Henri-François Gautrin (Verdun). François Gendron (Abitibi-Ouest) is a PQ MP, the father of House, being an MNA since 1976.

[MaxQue]

A Forum poll for the National Trash Post, is saying PQ 34 PLQ 32, CAQ 24.

[MaxQue]

Tommy: Henri-François Gautrin (Verdun). François Gendron (Abitibi-Ouest) is a PQ MP, the father of House, being an MNA since 1976.

Gautrin was never involved with any provincial wing of the NDP in Quebec...he was the leader of the Quebec section of the federal NDP back in the 70s when Lewis and then Broadbent were leaders.

If my memory is right, the Quebec section was the provincial wing, then.

[MaxQue]

Why hasn't the NDP created a Quebecois provincial party for the National Assembly?

They did two times, both times it was took over by nationalists.
And right now, it would only strenghten the right by dividing the left again.

[MaxQue]

Quebec doesn't have community service hours requirements in high school?

In public schools, usually no, but it depends of the programs.
IB does, for example. The strange program I did in middle school, too (10 hours to do in Grade 8 ).

[MaxQue]

Some reasons why there is no NPDQ... yet

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Democrats+consider+resurrecting+provincial+party+Quebec/7090600/story.html

The main problem is than a large part of NDP voters are independantists.

[MaxQue]

Just heard that on radio.
CROP poll

PQ 34, PLQ 27, CAQ 25.

[MaxQue]

Yes i think their is a market but right now you have the PLQ who owns anything federalist, and has been getting away with attracting the "progressive" federalist vote

No. I know a number of NDP members planning to vote PQ (and QS) to get Charest out.

[MaxQue]

Outremont has to be another left leaning federalist riding, for obvious reasons. (It was the NDP's best riding in Quebec in 2006, and again in 2008 (obviously).

Also, one can also look at the 2011 elections as an indicator (somewhat). Best NDP seats in Quebec were both in the Outaouais.  Both Gatineau (Chapleau provincially) and Hull are fairly federalist, and fairly left wing. So, an NDPQ should target NDG, Outremont, Hull and Chapleau.

No, no, no. The NDP voting area in federal Outremont is the Mile End and the west of the Plateau. Which are in provincial Gouin and Mercier. The provincial Outremont only contains the wealthy and Jew Outremont and the immigrant Côte-des-Neiges.

[MaxQue]

Ahh. How does QS do in Mile End then? That area is at least somewhat federalist, no?

That's the best area of Mercier for QS, Liberals are second (while they are 3rd in the rest of the riding).



Mile End is the Western area (North-West for a Montrealer, given the rotation of the cardinal points on Montreal everyday life).

[MaxQue]

Riding polls since the beginning.

Sherbrooke (http://www.lapresse.ca/la-tribune/actualites/201208/10/01-4564008-cardin-mene-par-15-points-dans-sherbrooke.php), Segma-La Tribune-NRJ-Rouge FM:
PQ 46, PLQ (Charest himself) 31, CAQ 11, QS 6, Green 2, ON 2

Granby (http://www.lapresse.ca/la-voix-de-lest/actualites/201208/10/01-4564211-francois-bonnardel-largement-en-avance.php), Segma-La Voix de l'Est:
CAQ 49 (incumbent), PQ 24, PLQ 16,

Dubuc (http://www.radio-canada.ca/sujet/elections-quebec-2012/2012/08/16/001-dubuc-sondage-segma.shtml), Segma-Le Quotidien-NRJ-Rouge FM:
PQ 44, PLQ(incumbent) 32, CAQ 18, QS 4

[MaxQue]

Léger-QMI poll, reported on radio.
PQ 33, PLQ 28, CAQ 27.

[MaxQue]

Outremont has to be another left leaning federalist riding, for obvious reasons. (It was the NDP's best riding in Quebec in 2006, and again in 2008 (obviously).

Also, one can also look at the 2011 elections as an indicator (somewhat). Best NDP seats in Quebec were both in the Outaouais.  Both Gatineau (Chapleau provincially) and Hull are fairly federalist, and fairly left wing. So, an NDPQ should target NDG, Outremont, Hull and Chapleau.

So potential trargets would be NDG, Gouin, Hull, Chapleau... i'd also include Sainte-Marie - Saint-Jacques, Laurier-Dorion (current QS targets; both left one very urban, very Trinity-Spadina; the other more ethnically mixed, poorer). I'd also say it might be worth to look at some Northern ridings like the Abitibi's, Ungava... they could be worth an effort. The only time the CCf won was when they won Royn-Noranda (correct me if i'm wrong)

Rouyn-Noranda and Ungava are perhaps worth it, the 2 Abitibi aren't (one is very rural and agricultural, the other has plenty of high paying jobs based on mining and who are afraid of hurting mining industry and liberal professions).

[MaxQue]

http://www.segmarecherche.ca/Sondages.html

They are the one who did Sherbrooke and Granby.
They apparently polled the 5 Sagnenay-Lac-Saint-Jean ridings.

So, since they contain all the results for all parties:

Sherbrooke:
PQ 46, PLQ-Charest 31, CAQ 11, QS 6, ON 2, Green 2

Granby:
CAQ-incumbent 49, PQ 24, PLQ 16, QS 7, Green 3, ON 1

Lac-Saint-Jean:
PQ-incumbent 59, CAQ 18, PLQ 17, QS 3, Green 1, ON 1

Chicoutimi:
PQ-incumbent 53, PLQ 21, CAQ 19, QS 5, ON 1

Dubuc:
PQ 44, PLQ-incumbent 32, CAQ 18, QS 4, ON 1

Roberval:
PQ-incumbent 53, PLQ 26, CAQ 14, QS 5

Jonquière:
PQ-incumbent 51, PLQ 20, CAQ 17, QS 6, Green 2, ON 1

[MaxQue]

It mentions a Léger poll from a year ago, 34% would be willing to vote for a NDP Quebec. I went to look for it and it was the ADQ (surprinsingly) and QS voters who were the most receptive.   

Not surprising at all. A part of ADQ (and CAQ) wants change, so they'll vote for any party which brings change. Those voters voted NDP federally, too.

[MaxQue]

Why doesnt she get to be in the 1 on 1 debates?

Because they are left-wing and than TVA belongs to the same group than the Sun newspapers.

[MaxQue]

isn't like there's anyone defending Anglo rights among this gang.

Obviously, defending the people who oppressed us for decades isn't a vote getter with French people.