CO-Senate: Mark Udall (D) raises $1.1 Mio. and has $2.5 Mio. cash-on-hand

[Tender Branson]

Udall Reports $2.5 Million For 2008 Senate Race

(AP) WASHINGTON Colorado Democratic Rep. Mark Udall said he's raised more than $1.1 million in the past three months for his 2008 Senate campaign.

Campaign manager Mike Melanson said Udall now has almost $2.5 million in the bank.

The campaign released the totals Tuesday in advance of the Federal Election Commission's July 15 deadline.

Melanson said the total is "impressive," but said there's still a long way to go.

Udall is the 2nd District congressman who wants to replace the retiring Republican Sen. Wayne Allard.

Some analysts consider the race one of the Democrats' best chances to gain a seat in the Senate.

http://cbs4denver.com/politics/local_story_191170651.html

[Tender Branson]

Cue Rawlings in....

It seems Bobby Schaffer will start the race with a 2 Mio. cash disadvantage and I´m not even sure if he cracked 500.000 in the second quarter ...

[Tender Branson]

Created a poll

[Tender Branson]

Mark Udall, that dumb hick-looking son of a bitch, well on his way to becoming my least-favorite senator.

Man. Go crawl back into your rightwing earth hole rather than insulting a man who could be your Senator for the next 30 years to come.

Btw: Udall looks more like an ancient wise Greek Senator - not like a hick.

But I wouldn´t expect a reasonable statement from someone who supports the party of a chimp ...

[Tender Branson]

I see that Rawlings has voted, because we have one single person who thinks that Schaffer will win.

Who are the other two?

Possibly Vanderblubb and another right-winger (Naso, Phil, DWTL ?) ...

[Tender Branson]

I don't necessarily think Schaffer will win (I voted Udall in the poll), but I don't think Udall is the mortal lock that just about every Democrat here seems to think he is.

I'd put him at a 6:5 favorite.

I've been saying he isn't a lock but it's still an uphill battle for Schaffer. Schaffer has to run a really good campaign and he doesn't have the track record of doing so. He was trashed by The Beer Guy. Notice how Udall has been slowly moving toward the center for a bit now. After some of the things Schaffer has said, it's going to be hard for him to rapdily move to the center. One thing that could harm Udall is if the "Boulder Liberal" label sticks.

It´s not that Udall will win by a big margin next year - I think it will be in the 50-55% range. He will do slightly worse than Salazar in 2004 I think, but had Salazar run in 2006, he would have won Ritter-like. Udall is more liberal - 2008 is no 2006 - Therefore the result will possibly be:

Udall: 52%
Schaffer: 47%
Others: 1%

[Tender Branson]

BTW: Schaffer raised $717.000 in the 2. quarter and had $683.000 Cash-on-Hand.

Better than the 500.000 I expected ...

[Tender Branson]

Cue Rawlings in....

Schaffer raised 710,000 in just six weeks.  That puts him on pace to smoke Udall in fundraising.  Schaffer will win.

I think both will raise about 1.5-2 Mio. in the 3rd quarter, but it´s hard to make any projections on fundraising acceleration and if Schaffer will outraise Udall at all in this quarter. Udall accelerated from 300.000 in the 1st to 1.1 Mio. in the second, Schaffer would have to outraise him by 3.8 Mio. to 2 Mio. in the 3rd to make it 50-50 cash-on-hand.

I see that Rawlings has voted, because we have one single person who thinks that Schaffer will win.

Who are the other two?

Possibly Vanderblubb and another right-winger (Naso, Phil, DWTL ?) ...

Thanks for throwing me in with a crew that believes the GOP wins every race. 

I've stated that this seat is gone for over a year, maybe longer.

Sry then. But the seat isn´t gone yet. It will be a close race to watch and everythings possible ...