Who wins the election?

[SnowLabrador]

Lean Trump.

[°Leprechaun]

I think that it is a tossup so I voted "other"

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden

[ShadowRocket]

Biden, by less than 2020 but still managing to hold on.

Same here.  2020 minus GA is my current guess.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I think the election is leaning in Biden's favor, and that if current trends continue, he gets a version of Olowakani's 303 map, and that even if the EV is closer, his vote margin in key states is larger than in 2020 by a good deal. That's because  Donald Trump is an obectively awful candidate for any reasonable human being (which most Republicans are not). While I think Joe Biden has done as well with his term as any human being could have (and better than most would have), he is not seen as a particulary popular or successful President. Yet he remains a far, far superior choice to Donald Trump.
 
BUT there are very many "grey swans" stacked up against Biden  - things where we don't know if they will happen, but if they do happen, they will damage his chances badly. Examples include:

-a personal health crisis
-Trump dying (and being replaced by anyone short of Kristi "Puppykiller" Noem)
-domestic unrest or a major disaster abroad (and we're halfway to both of these, now)
-an economic crash
-a natural disaster with bad optics
(a natural disaster with good optics is one of the few grey swans that could help him)

I have no way to provide detailed odds, but I think "events continue without shocking changes and Biden wins solidly" is the single most likely outcome. Call it 55%. That's followed by "one or more low probability events happen the reduce Biden's vote to the point where Trump wins". Call that 40%. Then there's the truly unexpected stuff, which is about 5%.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

I think the election is leaning in Biden's favor, and that if current trends continue, he gets a version of Olowakani's 303 map, and that even if the EV is closer, his vote margin in key states is larger than in 2020 by a good deal. That's because  Donald Trump is an obectively awful candidate for any reasonable human being (which most Republicans are not). While I think Joe Biden has done as well with his term as any human being could have (and better than most would have), he is not seen as a particulary popular or successful President. Yet he remains a far, far superior choice to Donald Trump.
 
BUT there are very many "grey swans" stacked up against Biden  - things where we don't know if they will happen, but if they do happen, they will damage his chances badly. Examples include:

-a personal health crisis
-Trump dying (and being replaced by anyone short of Kristi "Puppykiller" Noem)
-domestic unrest or a major disaster abroad (and we're halfway to both of these, now)
-an economic crash
-a natural disaster with bad optics
(a natural disaster with good optics is one of the few grey swans that could help him)

I have no way to provide detailed odds, but I think "events continue without shocking changes and Biden wins solidly" is the single most likely outcome. Call it 55%. That's followed by "one or more low probability events happen the reduce Biden's vote to the point where Trump wins". Call that 40%. Then there's the truly unexpected stuff, which is about 5%.

This is literally where I’m at RN

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The polls are just silly instead of polling Congressional races WV, OH, MT S seats or MT G they keep polling the same 303 states

Now they say Ds have a chance in WV because of Shrewsbury, we don't know how Brown is doing against Moreno and Tester is 3 pts down to Sheehy.

It's gonna be some version of the 319 map with NC but Biden is gonna get to 270

SL, Lakin are just hacks that Pred Trump winning

Zogby has Biden leading in PA and MI 48/45 MC polling Trump ahead in the big three is just no sense because they have Trump up 10 in NC instead of 5

[Eraserhead]

Trump 51%/Biden 49%. It may flip flop again by next week.

As boring and sad as this election is in some ways, it does appear that the general has the potential to be incredibly close.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The only thing that country gets out of it to Trump benefits is a pardon of Fed not state prosecuted and he can be prosecuted for state crimes

If Ds win the FILIBUSTER is gone

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The only thing that country gets out of it to Trump benefits is a pardon of Fed not state prosecuted and he can be prosecuted for state crimes

If Ds win the FILIBUSTER is gone

No poor person wins if Trump gets reelected his massive tax cuts for rich

[Tekken_Guy]

The lead has been flip flopping on this poll nonstop. It would be funny if it ends up an actual tie.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The lead has been flip flopping on this poll nonstop. It would be funny if it ends up an actual tie.

Pollsters just wantta assume the negative that Trump wins but Trump is a racist

[MR DARK BRANDON]

The lead has been flip flopping on this poll nonstop. It would be funny if it ends up an actual tie.

Most 2024 election thing ever

[Duke of York]

Trump is going to win.

[bagelman]

Both sides are trying to blow it. Trump is being dragged through the courts and remains deranged and conniving, while Biden comes across as very old and tired. Trump has the upper hand in polling, relevant as in the past two election there were major polling errors in his favor, but it's not even summer yet.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=589547.0

For reference when this question was asked last Biden led substantially.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Both sides are trying to blow it. Trump is being dragged through the courts and remains deranged and conniving, while Biden comes across as very old and tired. Trump has the upper hand in polling, relevant as in the past two election there were major polling errors in his favor, but it's not even summer yet.

Either way

this is an election that the one who ends up losing it had no business losing it.

[MarkD]

Biden, unfortunately. I intend to support an independent candidate like Evan McMullin.