Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[Tender Branson]

After Gov. Franz Voves (right) stepped down today, Michael Schickhofer (35 years old, left) will become the new Vice-Governor of Styria and is also likely to become the new state SPÖ party leader:

[Tender Branson]

New ATV/Hajek Austria Trend poll confirms the FPÖ in first place and a slide for the SPÖ:

28% FPÖ
25% ÖVP
23% SPÖ
15% Greens
  6% NEOS
  1% TS
  2% Others (KPÖ, Pirates, etc.)

Do you think the following parties are capable for a government role ?

59-39 yes - ÖVP
52-47 yes - SPÖ
43-55 no - FPÖ
37-62 no - Greens
22-75 no - NEOS

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20150611_OTS0069/atv-oesterreich-trend-fpoe-klar-auf-platz-1-43-halten-strache-partei-fuer-regierungsfaehig

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile the FPÖ-debacle here in Salzburg is getting deeper and deeper:

After Strache has ousted basically the whole FPÖ-leadership in Salzburg last night ("The night of the long knives" or "Knittelfeld 2.0"), Karl Schnell is now calling Strache a "dictator".

It should be noted that Karl Schnell was one of Jörg Haiders first followers and became FPÖ-party leader in Salzburg in the early 1990s, served for more than 20 years and has the backing of more than 80% of the state-FPÖ.

Yet Strache decided to throw him and all others out of the party yesterday. Schnell has said that he might create his own list for the 2018 state election, which would split the FPÖ into 2 pieces with ca. 10% each ...

[Tender Branson]

Damn ... what an interview (Schnell brutally attacking Strache):

http://salzburg.orf.at/news/stories/2715622

(For everyone who's a German speaker, plz watch ... )

[Tender Branson]

STATISTICS Austria has released the final population data for 2014 today and it shows the biggest population increase since the Balkan Wars in the early 1990s, and 2015 is on track already to break all records:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.statistik.at/web_en/press/102660.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.statistik.at/web_en/press/102646.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.statistik.at/web_en/press/102657.html

...

[Tender Branson]

There is also a massive demographic gap between Western Austria/Vienna and Eastern/Southern Austria.

Western Austria (Vorarlberg, Tyrol, Salzburg, Upper Austria) and Vienna all have high birth rates and low death rates, which results in a big birth surplus.

In Western Austria, this is due to the population being active and outdoorsy, while in Vienna this is due to high fertility among immigrants.

Southern and Eastern Austria have low birth rates and high death rates, because their populations are much older, experience outmigration of young locals to cities and few immigrants coming in.

Vienna has the highest birth rate at 11 per 1.000 people, closely followed by Vorarlberg, Salzburg, Upper Austria and Tyrol. Burgenland is lowest with 8/1.000

Vorarlberg has the lowest death rate at 7 per 1.000 people and it gets higher the further east you go. Burgenland once again has the highest death rate (11).

Western Austria also has the highest life expectancy with 85 years for women and 80 years for men, which is 1 year higher than Austria as a whole.

If we combine these factors, Western Austria is not only younger than the Austrian average but also the fastest growing besides Vienna and suburbs:

[Kevinstat]

Meanwhile, under much pressure/criticism/protest, Chancellor Faymann (SPÖ) and the broader federal SPÖ-leadership has agreed to let state SPÖs enter coalitions with the FPÖ, but maintained a federal "ban" on working with them.

Many SPÖ-members are now quitting party membership because of this, incl. former MPs. They call it "unbearable" that the SPÖ is working with the FPÖ.

All of this of course is terrible news for SPÖ prospects in the Vienna state election in 4 months, where the FPÖ is on track to cross 30% (+4%) and the SPÖ likely to drop to 35% (-9%).

On the other hand, FPÖ-leader Strache is now showing the biggest self-confidence ever [...]

His goal is now to win a stunning Vienna upset and force mayor Häupl (SPÖ) to step down ...

Another day with big and fast-changing political developments:

[...]

* Salzburg: Overnight, Austrian FPÖ-leader Strache has expelled the whole Salzburg-FPÖ leadership from the party (state FPÖ-leader Doppler and state-FPÖ parliamentary club leader Schnell). Also, 5 of the 6 state MPs for the FPÖ remain loyal to Doppler/Schnell and will be expelled as well, like 1 federal MP for the FPÖ and one BR (Bundesrat). The reason for the massive turmoil in the Salzburg-FPÖ was months of backstabbing, bad climate and intrigue. Strache now pulled the ripcord as a last resort, but the trouble won't end here because the FPÖ is now basically split and the expelled ones could create a new right-wing party. This is bad news for Strache, after having 2 weeks now with very positive news (elections wins in Bgld. and entering the government there and massive gains in Styria).

Meanwhile the FPÖ-debacle here in Salzburg is getting deeper and deeper:

After Strache has ousted basically the whole FPÖ-leadership in Salzburg last night ("The night of the long knives" or "Knittelfeld 2.0"), Karl Schnell is now calling Strache a "dictator".

It should be noted that Karl Schnell was one of Jörg Haiders first followers and became FPÖ-party leader in Salzburg in the early 1990s, served for more than 20 years and has the backing of more than 80% of the state-FPÖ.

Yet Strache decided to throw him and all others out of the party yesterday. Schnell has said that he might create his own list for the 2018 state election, which would split the FPÖ into 2 pieces with ca. 10% each ...

I wonder if Burgenland Gov. Hanz Niessl now regrets forming a coalition with the FPÖ, or if federal SPÖ leaders regret not doing {something, more} (whichever applies) to stop it.

Also, would Franz Voves still be Governor of Styria and (not imminently stepping down, if he hasn't already) state SPÖ leader if Niessl had renewed his party's coalition with the ÖVP?

Also, why didn't the SPÖ and Greens form a coalition in Burgenland after the SPÖ lost its majority in 2010?  They had a 19-17 majority between them (SPÖ 18, Greens 1).  If this year's election had gone badly for the coalition, the SPÖ could have switched to a coalition with the ÖVP and had it be a change, rather than a continuation of a just-rebuked status quo with Niessl obviously didn't like.  The Greens had lost ground in 2010 so perhaps that was a factor, plus perhaps the fear that the ÖVP would retaliate by forming a coalition without the SPÖ if they ever regained the ability to.  Or had the SPÖ even governed along during the 2005-2010 term or had they been in coalition with the ÖVP like the Lower Austria ÖVP is with the SPÖ today?  That could help explain why they kept governing with the ÖVP after 2010.

What party/parties was/were the SPÖ's coalition partner(s) in Burgenland in the 2000-2005 term?  (SPÖ-Greens had a 19-17 majority then as in 2010-2015.)  It must have been the ÖVP from 1991 (maybe earlier) to 2000 as only the SPÖ, ÖVP, and FPÖ had seats in the Landtag in that period.

When did Burgenland get rid of Proporz?

Okay, I'm done with my questions for this evening.

[Cranberry]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Quite possibly. Certainly Niessl entering a coalition with the FPÖ took all the pressure from the ÖVP that they would possibly have experienced had they played the "FPÖ-card" without a SPÖ/FPÖ coalition in the Burgenland. The Styrian SPÖ would definitely had a better position to argue against a hypothetical ÖVP/FPÖ coalition in Styria, now they were forced to watch and do nothing, or, like Schützenhofer, go into coalition talks with the FPÖ themselves. Voves had too much of a spine for that, so he got punished for that, if you want so.


I'll (or Tender will) answer your other questions later today, too little time right now

[Tender Branson]

I'll (or Tender will) answer your other questions later today, too little time right now

Please you, because I'm at work and have to order stuff for the next 2 months.

[Cranberry]

^ No problem. Have fun with that

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The Burgenland had Proporz until this election. I believe this is answering your questions, as with Proporz all the options you mention are impossible / irrelevant as the make-up of the state governments is determined by default by election results.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Because of Proporz, no real coalition partners, but always three ÖVP Landesräte / state government "ministers", as well as one from the FPÖ from 1996 to 2000. To isolate him from any important decisions, he was given the newly created resort "ropeway organisation", ironical as the Burgenland is a flat land with no ski resorts and maybe in total two ropeways (if even that much )

[Kevinstat]

Thank you for answering most of my questions, Cranberry.  The remaining one, about whether Gov. Niessl and/or the federal SPÖ regret forming a coalition with the FPÖ/changing the by-laws to make it "legal" for a state SPÖ to form such a coalition (beyond what is required in the states that still have Proporz) in light of the FPÖ's internal troubles that might have blunted their momentum (and in light of how intense the backlash has been within the SPÖ base)... that's a question for which the answers could probably only be guessed at.

Looking at the portions of Tender's posts from June 9, June 10 and June 11 that I quoted in my last post, it certainly seems like the SPÖ (both in Burgenland and federally) might be breathing a sigh of relief right now if they and the ÖVP had taken the risk (and it is a risk, I know) of continuing to relegate the FPÖ to the role of an opposition party throughout the country in which they had been thriving (and surging in the polls).  And as I someone said, the FPÖ may still benefit nationally from being an opposition party because Burgenland is such a small state.

[Cranberry]

Thank you for answering most of my questions, Cranberry.  The remaining one, about whether Gov. Niessl and/or the federal SPÖ regret forming a coalition with the FPÖ/changing the by-laws to make it "legal" for a state SPÖ to form such a coalition (beyond what is required in the states that still have Proporz) in light of the FPÖ's internal troubles that might have blunted their momentum (and in light of how intense the backlash has been within the SPÖ base)... that's a question for which the answers could probably only be guessed at.

Looking at the portions of Tender's posts from June 9, June 10 and June 11 that I quoted in my last post, it certainly seems like the SPÖ (both in Burgenland and federally) might be breathing a sigh of relief right now if they and the ÖVP had taken the risk (and it is a risk, I know) of continuing to relegate the FPÖ to the role of an opposition party throughout the country in which they had been thriving (and surging in the polls).  And as I someone said, the FPÖ may still benefit nationally from being an opposition party because Burgenland is such a small state.

I'm sorry, I must have missed that question. The thing is, this whole Salzburg FPÖ thing is more or less just affecting Salzburg, you don't really hear that much of that outside Salzburg, and I would say it has little to no effect on the other state's state FPÖs and the national one. Tender is a bit overemphasizing on that, it's just logical that he in Salzburg will hear much about that, but it's not really an issue in the rest of Austria.

And yes, the national FPÖ will most probably continue to play the same role they did before they were in government in the Burgenland, the latter is just far too small to have much effect on that. And also, never forget the golden rule of Austrian politics: regardless of what happens, the FPÖ will profit

[Tender Branson]

Unique Research poll for "Profil":

Do you support or oppose TTIP ?

24% support (4% strongly support, 20% somewhat support)
61% oppose (36% strongly oppose, 25% somewhat oppose)
15% undecided

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20150613_OTS0003/profil-umfrage-grosse-mehrheit-der-oesterreicher-gegen-ttip-abkommen-eingestellt

[Tender Branson]

The thing is, this whole Salzburg FPÖ thing is more or less just affecting Salzburg, you don't really hear that much of that outside Salzburg, and I would say it has little to no effect on the other state's state FPÖs and the national one. Tender is a bit overemphasizing on that, it's just logical that he in Salzburg will hear much about that, but it's not really an issue in the rest of Austria.

There are 3 scenarios in which the current Salzburg-FPÖ dispute could end up badly for them:

(ranked from best to worst scenario for the FPÖ)

1 - federal elections in 2018: if the Salzburg-FPÖ splits into two lists, with each getting around 13%, it would shave off about 0.5-0.8% from the federal FPÖ-result. Not really the end of the world.

2 - state elections in Upper Austria and Vienna this year: if the internal Salzburg struggle continues for the next months, Strache could be seen as "damaged and not in control of his own party" by some FPÖ-voters even in these 2 states which have nothing to do with Salzburg. Could shave off 1-2% of the potential FPÖ-vote in these states.

3 - state election in Salzburg in 2018: Of course the worst case for the FPÖ. If Karl Schnell does not step down completely from state politics and remains an active force with some loyal backers, then there might be 2 FPÖ's with around 8-12% each and that could make coalition building interesting after the state election.

[Tender Branson]

Breaking News:

Karl Schnell to create a FPÖ 2.0 in Salzburg next week.

This means the FPÖ here is officially split into 2 pieces.



http://derstandard.at/2000017447037/Karl-Schnell-gruendet-Partei-in-Salzburg

5 of the 6 state MPs for the FPÖ will join him with the new party, as will all 2 Salzburg-FPÖ MPs in the Austrian Parliament and the lone Bundesrat for the FPÖ from Salzburg.

Schnell still has huge backing from long-time FPÖ-members, which means his party is likely here to stay for the next few years.

This is getting really hilarious, especially because Schnell recently called Strache an "insane dictator" and "in need of a psychologist" ...

[Tender Branson]

So, it will be FPS (Freedom Party of Salzburg, with Schnell) vs. FPÖ (with Strache) from now on ...

Also, the Team Stronach in Salzburg is about to split into two pieces because the federal TS is too toxic at the moment and because the TS in Salzburg is in the state government they might secede from the mother party and run on a different name and platform in the 2018 state election.

[Tender Branson]

New IMAS poll for the "Krone" (n=1000):

[Tender Branson]

New state election poll for Upper Austria (M&R for the ÖVP):



http://www.heute.at/news/politik/art23660,1173260

The federal SPÖVP government is in for another big trashing (losing a combined 12%).

The FPÖ is reaching the highest level in Upper Austria ever (in state election results as well as polling) and gaining 10%.

It is also overtaking the SPÖ for 2nd place, which is a major Super-GAU for the Social Dems.

The Greens see moderate gains.

NEOS continues to disappoint.

The state election is on September 27.

[Tender Branson]

The Styrian ÖVP-SPÖ government and the new state parliament MPs were sworn in today.

It replaces SPÖ-ÖVP.

And this despite the fact that the SPÖ won the election and the ÖVP came in only second.

New Governor: Hermann Schützenhöfer (ÖVP), pictured on the left below with Austrian President Heinz Fischer at the swearing-in ceremony.

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup poll:



The internal FPÖ-dispute in Salzburg and party split there does not seem to have an impact so far.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/FPOe-zieht-allen-davon/192913403

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ is at a high now, despite their split in Salzburg, according to a new Unique Research poll for "Profil" magazine:

28% FPÖ
24% ÖVP
23% SPÖ
15% Greens
  7% NEOS
  1% TS
  2% Others

Chancellor vote:

18% Reinhold Mitterlehner (ÖVP)
17% Heinz-Christian Strache (FPÖ)
17% Werner Faymann (SPÖ-incumbent)
10% Eva Glawischnig (Greens)
  3% Matthias Strolz (NEOS)
35% Others/None of them

It's pretty evident why the FPÖ is doing so well:

"Which party has the best ideas and solutions for the topic of asylum policy ?"



http://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-fpoe-an-erster-stelle-5711900

[Tender Branson]

Vienna state election poll (Gallup/Ö24 News):



The gap between SPÖ and FPÖ (6%) is now the closest ever ... get ready for a major political earthquake on October 11.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-Schock-fuer-Wiener-SPOe/193034654

[Tender Branson]

New Salzburg poll by IGF for the "SN":



The Greens remain surprisingly strong here in my home state, with 21%.

---

The poll was conducted June 5-17, which means most of the poll was done before the FPÖ-split.

Slightly more than half of the respondents were asked 2 questions about the FPÖ-split:

53% think that the ousting of long-time Salzburg FPÖ-leader Karl Schnell by Austrian FPÖ-leader Strache is a loss for the state-FPÖ.

47% also think that the new FPS party that Schnell has recently created will not manage to get into state parliament in the 2018 state election.

http://www.salzburg.com/nachrichten/salzburg/politik/sn/artikel/umfrage-zu-salzburgs-politik-stoeckl-kassiert-vertrauensbonus-154723

[Tender Branson]

Werner Faymann's days as SPÖ-leader could be numbered after the September/October state elections in Upper Austria and Vienna, if the above polls are true. And if not then, then after the 2018 federal elections.

Which means the "successor game" has now started and 2 names have recently popped up in the media, with 1 of them sounding like a credible candidate who does not rule it out in an interview with the "Kurier":

Gerhard Zeiler: "Wäre bereit, Verantwortung zu übernehmen"



Zeiler is currently the President of Turner Broadcasting System International.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Another candidate is Christian Kern, the CEO of the Austrian Railway.

[Tender Branson]

Even the SPÖ's internal pollster IFES shows the FPÖ ahead now:



In Austria, internal polls are generally not much different though than that of the regular pollsters.

http://kurier.at/politik/inland/angst-vor-abstieg-hat-den-mittelstand-erfasst/137.853.124