Bolivian constitutional referendum, February 21, 2016

[Sir John Johns]

A constitutional referendum will be held in Bolivia on February 21. The referendum will take place in order to change the 2009 constitution to allow a president to serve three consecutive five-year terms instead of two. If approved, incumbent Evo Morales will be able to run in 2019 for a fourth consecutive term as president (his first term in office doesn't count as he was firstly elected under a previous constitution).

The constitutional change put to referendum was approved in September 2015 by the Plurinational Legislative Assembly after a petition signed by various social and indigenous organizations. The petition was initiated after the April 2015 local elections which were lost by the ruling Movement towards Socialism (MAS).

According to its proponents, the extension of presidential term limits would permit Morales to complete the implementation of his political agenda, the so-called Patriotic Agenda 2025. In fact, the MAS is afraid to lose the next presidential election (to be held in 2019) if Morales isn't the party's candidate. Indeed, there is currently no apparent heir to the president and, while Morales remains popular, its party is no longer invincible as proved by the last local elections.

The “Yes” side is supported by the president, the government, the MAS, and various unions and indigenous organizations. Several mayors from the far-left indigenous Movement for Sovereignty (MPS) are also supporting the constitutional change.

The “No” side is supported by right-wing parties like the Social Democrat Movement (MDS), the National Unity Front (UN) and the Revolutionary Nationalist Movement (MNR). Several veteran right-wing politicians actively campaigned for the “No”, among them being former presidents Carlos Mesa and Jorge Quiroga.

The “No” side is also supported by leftist politicians and militants who grew disillusioned with Morales. Among the latter are former ministers under Morales (like Félix Patzi, the center-left governor of La Paz Department) and leftist militants from the Potosí Civic Commitee (COMCIPO), a local alliance of unions and social organizations that staged protests and strikes against the government in Potosí Department in July 2015.

Over the past days, the campaign turned very ugly. Firstly, it was revealed that Morales fathered in 2007 a child with Gabriela Zapata, a young woman who is currently working for a Chinese company that has received government contracts. While Morales acknowledged he had a child (who died shortly after birth) with Zapata, he denied any influence-peddling in favor of the Chinese company.

Yesterday – the last day of the campaign – a demonstration against the right-wing (UN) mayor of El Alto degenerated: a group of protesters burned the El Alto municipal office. Six people died in the building, intoxicated by smoke. The El Alto mayor blamed the fire on militants of the MAS who had, allegedly, set fire to suppress evidence of corruption of the former El Alto's MAS mayor. For its part, the government denounced a “false flag” operation by opposition infiltrators.

Latest polls are all over the place:

Captura Consulting, February 11

Yes 44.4%
No 41.1%
Don't know 14.6%

Mori, February 12

Yes 40%
No 40%
Don't know 11%

Ipsos, February 12

Yes 40%
No 41%
Don't know 15%

Mercados y Muestras, February 14
(apparently the only poll made after the Zapata scandal erupted).

Yes 28%
No 47%
Don't know 25%

[Famous Mortimer]

Chavez did the same thing. I don't get it. YOU WROTE THE CONSTITUTION. WHY DID YOU PUT TERM LIMITS IN IN THE FIRST PLACE?

[joevsimp]

or more importantly, why didn't you build up your party/movement in such a way as to have viable potential successors

[Sir John Johns]

According to quick counts the No won with 51% of the votes.

[jaichind]

Ipsos exit poll has NO winning 52-48.  Looks like it will be close but No more likely or not won. 

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- Of 146,513 valid votes counted so far, 66% vote no, 34% vote yes, in referendum on whether to amend constitution to allow President Evo Morales to seek another term, electoral commission says in partial result published on its website.

Of course this is mostly urban areas.  Evo's rural strongholds mostly did not report in votes yet.

[jaichind]

ATB television projects No winning 52.3 to 47.7.  Unitel television gave the No vote winning 51 to 49.

[ag]

The oficial results webpage is down, but the unofficial final preliminary count gives it 52.3% No, 47.7% Yes. Yes wins in La Paz, Cochabamba and Oruro (this last one barely).

[ag]

35 precincts will be revoting on March 6. However, these are in Santa Cruz - not likely to be of much help to the Yes side, unless they get blatantly stolen.

[ag]

On the results that are actually on the oficial webpage (it woke up), Yes is, actually, loosing everywhere, and losing badly - but, of course, these are very early

So far, the oficial results are (with 2,756 of 29,224 precincts reporting)

YES 33.73%
NO 66.27%

By department this breaks down

Chuquisaca (240 of 1644 reporting)
YES 23.38%
NO 76.62%

La Paz (1164 of 8116 reporting)
YES 41.89%
NO 58.11%

Cochabamba (277 of 5359 reporting)
YES 26.90%
NO 73.10%

Oruro (250 of 1487 reporting)
YES 42.42%
NO 57.58%

Potosi (243 of 2131 reporting)
YES 13.97%
NO 86.03%

Tarija - no results so far

Santa Cruz (312 of 7432 reporting)
YES 22.64%
NO 77.36%

Beni - no results so far

Pando (172 of 326 reporting)
YES 40.46%
NO 59.54%

[jaichind]

I am surprised it is as close as what the various exit polls says it is.  Given that natural prices has fallen a lot recently plus that business about Evo's illegitimate child I would think No would win by mile.  I guess if these projections are true then Evo still retains significant support. 

[ag]

I am surprised it is as close as what the various exit polls says it is.  Given that natural prices has fallen a lot recently plus that business about Evo's illegitimate child I would think No would win by mile.  I guess if these projections are true then Evo still retains significant support. 

The prices has fallen, but Bolivia is not doing anywhere as bad as Venezuela. The government has been maintaining sensible "macroeconomic" stance, so, for the moment, it is not doing too badly. That is why, probably, they wanted a referendum now. It is not the price crash - it is more the general sense of being tired of the regime.

[ag]

Actually, the oficial count is increasingly lopsided in favor of NO. Still very early, but at huge variance with the early count previously reported. Probably, urban areas reporting first.

So far, the oficial results are (with 2,969 of 29,224 precincts reporting)

YES 32.8%
NO 67.2%

By department this breaks down

Chuquisaca (270 of 1644 reporting)
YES 23.54%
NO 76.46%

La Paz (1233 of 8116 reporting)
YES 41.47%
NO 58.53%

Cochabamba (277 of 5359 reporting)
YES 26.90%
NO 73.10%

Oruro (260 of 1487 reporting)
YES 42.6%
NO 57.4%

Potosi (260 of 2131 reporting)
YES 14.04%
NO 85.97%

Tarija - no results so far

Santa Cruz (522 of 7432 reporting)
YES 20.93%
NO 79.07%

Beni - no results so far

Pando (172 of 326 reporting)
YES 40.46%
NO 59.54%

[jaichind]

Pando at No winning 59.5 to 40.5 should be ominous to Evo.    That should be a Evo stronghold.  It seems that No will win by a landslide.  Evo would need Beni to perform well for Yes and hope that Santa Cruz numbers turns around to avoid a total rout.  

[jaichind]

I am surprised it is as close as what the various exit polls says it is.  Given that natural prices has fallen a lot recently plus that business about Evo's illegitimate child I would think No would win by mile.  I guess if these projections are true then Evo still retains significant support. 

The prices has fallen, but Bolivia is not doing anywhere as bad as Venezuela. The government has been maintaining sensible "macroeconomic" stance, so, for the moment, it is not doing too badly. That is why, probably, they wanted a referendum now. It is not the price crash - it is more the general sense of being tired of the regime.

I see, I just assumed a lot of the subsidies would have been reduced since the money coming in from natural gas exports would have been reduced.

[ag]

Pando at No winning 59.5 to 40.5 should be ominous to Evo.    That should be a Evo stronghold.  It seems that No will win by a landslide.  Evo would need Beni to perform well for Yes and hope that Santa Cruz numbers turns around to avoid a total rout.  

I think in the end it will be not as lopsided. Rural areas must be taking longer. The early results were not only exit polls, but also rapid counts (probably, extensive samples of actual counts). We only have 10% reporting for the moment.

[jaichind]

Feb. 22 (AFP) -- Bolivia VP says vote on Morales re-election in a 'dead heat,' too soon to call

[ag]

A bit more counted

So far, the oficial results are (with 3,394 of 29,224 precincts reporting)

YES 32.53%
NO 67.47%

By department this breaks down

Chuquisaca (310 of 1644 reporting)
YES 24.1%
NO 75.89%

La Paz (1233 of 8116 reporting)
YES 41.47%
NO 58.53%

Cochabamba (302 of 5359 reporting)
YES 27.74%
NO 72.26%

Oruro (300 of 1487 reporting)
YES 43.65%
NO 56.35%

Potosi (326 of 2131 reporting)
YES 14.13%
NO 85.87%

Tarija - no results so far

Santa Cruz (585 of 7432 reporting)
YES 20.58%
NO 79.42%

Beni (30 of 1139 reporting)
YES 37.99%
NO 62.01%

Pando (172 of 326 reporting)
YES 40.46%
NO 59.54%

[ag]

Feb. 22 (AFP) -- Bolivia VP says vote on Morales re-election in a 'dead heat,' too soon to call

Well, what else would he be saying?

[jaichind]

It is interesting that so far Santa Cruz is a lot worse for Yes than La Paz where one would expect the opposite.  I guess this will change as more results comes in.

[ag]

It is interesting that so far Santa Cruz is a lot worse for Yes than La Paz where one would expect the opposite.  I guess this will change as more results comes in.

Why? Santa Cruz is THE opposition stronghold. La Paz is anything but.

[jaichind]

It is interesting that so far Santa Cruz is a lot worse for Yes than La Paz where one would expect the opposite.  I guess this will change as more results comes in.

Why? Santa Cruz is THE opposition stronghold. La Paz is anything but.

Oops, you are right.  I got the partisan alignments of regions mixed up for a while.

[ag]

And a bit more

So far, the oficial results are (with 3,610 of 29,224 precincts reporting)

YES 32.46%
NO 67.54%

By department this breaks down

Chuquisaca (330 of 1644 reporting)
YES 24.53%
NO 75.47%

La Paz (1416 of 8116 reporting)
YES 42.09%
NO 57.93%

Cochabamba (354 of 5359 reporting)
YES 28.64%
NO 71.36%

Oruro (322 of 1487 reporting)
YES 43.04%
NO 56.96%

Potosi (432 of 2131 reporting)
YES 14.02%
NO 85.98%

Tarija - no results so far

Santa Cruz (585 of 7432 reporting)
YES 20.58%
NO 79.42%

Beni (47 of 1139 reporting)
YES 38.79%
NO 61.21%

Pando (172 of 326 reporting)
YES 40.46%
NO 59.54%

[ag]

Slowly, Slowly

So far, the oficial results are (with 3,872 of 29,224 precincts reporting)

YES 32.64%
NO 67.36%

By department this breaks down

Chuquisaca (350 of 1644 reporting)
YES 24.95%
NO 75.05%

La Paz (1461 of 8116 reporting)
YES 42.53%
NO 57.47%

Cochabamba (354 of 5359 reporting)
YES 29.17%
NO 70.83%

Oruro (350 of 1487 reporting)
YES 42.8%
NO 57.2%

Potosi (472 of 2131 reporting)
YES 13.9%
NO 86.1%

Tarija - no results so far

Santa Cruz (585 of 7432 reporting)
YES 20.58%
NO 79.42%

Beni (70 of 1139 reporting)
YES 36.69%
NO 63.11%

Pando (172 of 326 reporting)
YES 40.46%
NO 59.54%

[ag]

More reporting from Santa Cruz

So far, the oficial results are (with 4,124 of 29,224 precincts reporting)

YES 32.2%
NO 67.8%

By department this breaks down

Chuquisaca (370 of 1644 reporting)
YES 25.56%
NO 74.44%

La Paz (1477 of 8116 reporting)
YES 42.62%
NO 57.38%

Cochabamba (452 of 5359 reporting)
YES 30.1%
NO 69.9%

Oruro (394 of 1487 reporting)
YES 42.99%
NO 57.01%

Potosi (552 of 2131 reporting)
YES 13.84%
NO 86.16%

Tarija - no results so far

Santa Cruz (657 of 7432 reporting)
YES 20.34%
NO 79.66%

Beni (90 of 1139 reporting)
YES 35.37%
NO 64.63%

Pando (172 of 326 reporting)
YES 40.46%
NO 59.54%