PA PrimD: Suffolk University: Clinton leads Obama by 10

[Sam Spade]

First Suffolk poll, so no real point of comparison.

My 11-point prediction may have been a little conservative if what might be happening, is happening.  I'd say it's about 50/50.

And so what is happening, Mr. Fascist?  You need to clue us in. 

(far be it from me to ask, since I make cryptic remarks all the time that probably mirror everything that's being said here)

[Sam Spade]

First Suffolk poll, so no real point of comparison.

My 11-point prediction may have been a little conservative if what might be happening, is happening.  I'd say it's about 50/50.

And so what is happening, Mr. Fascist?  You need to clue us in. 

(far be it from me to ask, since I make cryptic remarks all the time that probably mirror everything that's being said here)

The late-breakers are almost all Catholic whites, as a few other polls have implied, and they will go heavily for Clinton.  If there is any Clinton-ward mo' in the last few days, she might win solidly.

I don't really know what a "late-breaker" is in terms of the Pennsylvania primary - I do know what a "liar" or a "flirter" is, however...  We'll see.

[Sam Spade]

I don't really care about the quality of the poll, fwiw, if it has any.

The point I will continue to make is this:  There have always been in my mind two results:
1) The "race is over" result, where Clinton wins by 6-8 points, where the working-class Catholics in the Philly area decide that the race is over and split.
2) The "race continues as it did before" result, where Clinton wins by 12%-15%, and the working-class Catholics in Philly do their thing.

Now, with SUSA having her lead down to 6 points, my tendency would be leaning towards the former result, rather than the latter, whereas last night, I would be leaning more towards the latter, rather than the former.

The key point is the SE PA subsample - before SUSA had that as tied.  Now they match the other polls which show Obama +15 there.  That's your gap.

Of course, this doesn't mean we won't split the difference and see an 8%-12% margin.  Quite possible, actually.  And SUSA could be wrong here, who knows...