Who would win if this happened?
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  Who would win if this happened?
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Poll
Question: ?
#1
Hillary Clinton
 
#2
Donald Trump
 
#3
Gary Johnson
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 25

Author Topic: Who would win if this happened?  (Read 377 times)
RR1997
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« on: June 08, 2016, 03:23:23 PM »
« edited: June 08, 2016, 03:33:45 PM by RR1997 »

Let's just say that Gary Johnson predominantly focuses on Utah. He runs a one-state campaign. He heavily campaigns in Utah with the help of millions of dollars in funding from the Koch Brothers.

Let's say that his one-state campaign works and he wins Utah due to dissatisfied Mormons. Let's say that the map looks like this:


Donald Trump: 267 EV's
Hillary Clinton: 265 EV's
Gary Johnson: 6 EV's

No one gets over 270 EV's.

Donald Trump could easily win Ohio/Pennsylvania. He has been polling very strongly in these two states due to working class Rust Belt whites. A recent poll by PPP shows Hillary leading Trump by only 1 point there.

This map could happen.

What would happen if it did? What would happen if no one got over 270 EV's? Would the House choose Donald J. Trump or Johnson?
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twenty42
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« Reply #1 on: June 08, 2016, 08:22:42 PM »

When you say a one-state campaign, do you mean that Johnson will only be on the ballot in Utah, or that he will be on the ballot in all 50 states but only focus on/campaign in Utah?

In the case of the former, the House would definitely select Trump. The 13.5 million votes he received in the primary season would be a much more important constituency to satisfy than the approximately 400,000 votes it would take for Johnson to take Utah on election night.

In the case of the latter, the answer would be undefined. Johnson winning any state in a three-way national race would very likely only happen in a 1912-style EV landslide for Clinton. Trump beating Clinton/Johnson in lean D swing states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania while not being able to do so in a strong R state like Utah is an oxymoron.
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Illiniwek
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« Reply #2 on: June 08, 2016, 08:28:02 PM »

IF Johnson is anywhere near winning any state, he will be taking large enough chunks out of Trump nationally that Trump would lose every swing state, if not Arizona and Georgia type states.
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RaphaelDLG
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« Reply #3 on: June 08, 2016, 08:36:09 PM »

LOL @ the five people voting for Hillary Clinton when the House is controlled by Republicans
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jfern
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« Reply #4 on: June 08, 2016, 08:38:21 PM »

The House chooses Trump if Hillary has less than 270 electoral votes.
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Meclazine for Israel
Meclazine
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« Reply #5 on: June 08, 2016, 08:39:00 PM »

When I grow up dad, I wanna be a "working class Rust Belt white".
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