SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

OK, probably Rosenberg is just seen in Finland as a typical Swede concerning feminism (although she is actually Finn). Same time it was told that Göran Person considered himself feminist, that was interpreted as support to radical feminist world view ( an appeaser of radical feminism). 

Gustaf, I have never seen you to distance yourself from feminist demagogy.

What nonsense is that? I've never heard you once distance yourself from killing babies. That doesn't mean you support killing babies... I hope?

It'd be preferable if you based your claims on facts rather than stereotypes that might be common about Swedes in Finland, as there are quite some unflattering stereotypes people over here holds about Finnish people.

The idea of Persson being an appeaser of radical feminist is ridiculous.
 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

2. Who will gain the Centre Party's mandate? Top candidate and incumbent Kent Johansson is anonymous and currently has only 11.03% of the personal votes, trailing both the no. 2 candidate Kristina Yngwe (chair of the Swedish Federation of Young Farmers) and the current leader, no. 3 on the list, Stockholm-based MP Fredrick Federley, who is aligned with the more right-wing turn of the Centre Party in contrast to the relatively traditional Kent Johansson. Federley looks likely to win, since most of Stockholm County (but not the City itself) is uncounted, but so is much of Johansson's base in rural Västra Götaland.

As you say, considering which parts are still uncounted, I think it's very unlikely that Yngwe or Johansson overtake Federley. I'll be rather satisfied as I personally do prefer him over Johansson, but I voted for Yngwe, so I'd be most happy with her. 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I admit some ignorance about the Centre Party's internal workings - what are the main differences between the three? Am I correct to cast Yngwe as slightly to the right of Johansson but to the left of Federley?

Federley is clearly the most principled liberal of the three, which I guess would put him economically on the right of the other two, who have a more traditional centrist bent. He's also very socially progressive.

When it comes to the other two, it's mostly a difference in style and tone.
Yngwe is young and female farmer who's a strong environmentalist and who has agricultural issues as her main focus who doesn't have a long back-ground in politics. Pretty perfect combination to appeal to most of the different factions in the party.

Kent Johansson is sort of bland. Most people I've met in the party agree that he's a good politician, not just very inspiring or charismatic. He's more of a support-tropes person, rather than one to stand on the front of a political battle.   

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Chilling poll numbers from Demoskop today.

M - 18,5%
C - 5,3%
FP - 5,7%
KD - 4,8%

S - 29,1%
V - 8,1%
MP - 13,0%

SD - 10,0%
FI - 4,4%   

The trends from the EP election seems to show up here. The Moderates are doing terribly, C and KD sllightly gaining to above 4%. Sweden Democrats, the Greens, and Feminists are doing strong. The Social Democrats surprisingly weak.

S+MP+FI government anyone?   

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Chilling poll numbers from Demoskop today.

M - 18,5%
C - 5,3%
FP - 5,7%
KD - 4,8%

S - 29,1%
V - 8,1%
MP - 13,0%

SD - 10,0%
FI - 4,4%   

The trends from the EP election seems to show up here. The Moderates are doing terribly, C and KD slightly gaining to above 4%. Sweden Democrats, the Greens, and Feminists are doing strong. The Social Democrats surprisingly weak.

S+MP+FI government anyone?   

Wouldn't that actually work better than S+Mp+V?

It might very well. Though the highest bet is still a S+MP minority government. That's what would work most smoothly. Though it's fun to entertain the thought of a government with FI in them.

 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Mathematically, FI would gain 2 cabinet posts. But who would they have other than Schyman? And where?

Also interesting, on those numbers the Greens would be entitled to 6 posts. (assuming 22 ministers in total) Do you dare to take a shot on what such an government would look like?
I also have a hard time thinking of a realistic place to put another FI minister except on equality. 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Not a bad proposal, there are a few things I'm uncertain about though. 

I doubt SAP would agree to give the Greens that much power in the Social Affairs Ministry. I'd put Carin Jämtin on Minister of Social Affairs, and make Karin Svensson Smith Minister of Energy & Infrastructure. (That's more of the Greens' area anyway)

And I think your guess for FI on the culture portfolio was better. Having a minister of anti-racism just feels off. I can't help but to think that SD would gain every time the  title showed up on television. I'd find another post for Wallner instead. Minister of Cuteness and Good Looks or whatever.   
   

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Sifo's June Poll is out. Which is the first good poll done mostly after the EP election. (I do not personally view either YouGov or United Minds as good)

S: 29,4% (-1,5%)
V: 6,4% (-0,9%)
MP: 13,0% (+2,7)

M: 21,1% (-2,0%)
C: 5,5% (+0,5%)
FP: 6,8% (-0,2%)
KD: 3,5% (+/-)

SD: 9,0 (+0,2%)
FI: 3,4% (+0,5%)


I think looking at this poll, and the polls Tayya posted, and the EP election results we can make a few conclusions:

1)The dynamic between the parties on the left is changing.
2) The Moderates are in big BIG trouble.
3) The Centre Party has (at least for now) stopped its bleeding, and is slowly recovering.
4) The Sweden Democrats will do a very good election and I will have to suffer my bobo friends anti-racist rants in social media for months.

   

 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I do usually view Demoskop as a good pollster, they were quite close in their last poll in 2010. Sometimes they seem to get some strange out-liner results though.

Sifo has historically been the most reliable, although they were probably the pollster that underestimated SD the most in 2010.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

New polls! Novus and Ipsos this time:

Novus:

S: 32,1% (-0,3%)
V: 6,7% (-1,6%)
MP: 11,3% (+1,2)

M: 21,2% (-3,1%)
C: 5,6% (+1,7%)
FP: 6,8% (+0,8%)
KD: 4,4% (+0,2%)

SD: 8,3 (+0,6%)
FI: 2,9% (+0,8%)

Ipsos:

S: 31,1% (-0,2%)
V: 7,4% (-1,3%)
MP: 11,3% (+1,1)

M: 20,5% (-2,1%)
C: 5,6% (+1,3%)
FP: 6,3% (+0,5%)
KD: 3,3% (-1,2%)

SD: 9,6 (+1,8%)
FI: 3,7% (-0,2%)


Trends from the last polls holding true in this one as well. V is clearly feeling FI's succes the hardest. (Unsurprisingly)

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

SVT has recently published their Voter Affiliation Compass, which in my personal oppinion tends to be the best compass for Swedish electins. (Though I liked the 2010 version better than this one)

It can be found here!

For those who unconveniently don't speak Swedish I will post an English translation of all the questions in the next post.

Options are:

Very good proposal (Dark green)
Mostly good proposal (Light green)
Mostly bad proposal (Orange)
Very bad proposal (Red)
No oppinion

You can also tick a little box above the options if an issue is especially important to you.

Have fun.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

The questions in English:

Ideology
1. It is important that Sweden only has a small income gap.
2. It is important that Sweden has more private enterprise and market economy.
3. It is important that more power is reassigned from men to women in Sweden.
4. It is important that criminals get harder punishments that they do in Sweden today.
5. It is important that Sweden is a multicultural nation.
6. It is important that Christian values play a greater part in politics in Sweden.
7. It is important that higher education should give a better salary in Sweden compared to today.
8. It is important that LGBT-rights are increased in society.
9. Fighting Climate change should be the number one priority of politics.

Jobs and employment
1. There should be compulsory affirmative action to get more women in business boards.
2. The retirement age should be raised.
3. The number of work hours per week should be decreased.
4. Companies should get a greater say in which personnel they let off due to staff surplus.  
5. The level on payments from unemployment insurance should be increased.
6. Youth should get a lower salary at their first job than the standard salary.  

Education
1. Students should get their first report card in 4th grade.
2. The national government should take over the main responsibility for schools from local government.
3. All secondary education should qualify you for University studies.
4. The number of private schools should be limited.
5. There should be a grade on the report cards for good behaviour.

Healthcare
1. The national government should take over the main responsibility for healthcare from regional government.
2. The care-taker subsidy for parents of young children should be eliminated.
3.  Municipal home assistance should cost the same no matter where you live.
4. Capital gains from profits in the tax-financed health sector should not be allowed.
5. Undocumented immigrants should have a right to free treatment.

Economy and Taxes
1. The wealth tax should be re-established.    
2. Tax-deductions for home services should continue to be allowed.
3. No more state owned business should be privatised.
4. Parental leave should be mandatorily split equally between the parents.
5. Economic support to rural areas should be increased.

Environment    
1. The current nuclear reactors should be allowed to be replaced with newer ones.
2. Taxes on gasoline should be increased.
3. Subsidies for wind power should be eliminated.
4. More wolf hunting should be allowed in Sweden.

Immigration and Integration
1. You should be able to seek asylum in Sweden from Swedish embassies.
2. Less people should be allowed to immigrate to Sweden.
3. All municipalities should have an obligation to take in and care for asylum seekers.
4. The police should actively seek up and deport illegal immigrants.

Other Issues
1. Sweden should leave the European Union.
2. Sweden should increase its Defence budget.  
3. Sweden should join NATO.
4. Entrance to state owned museums should be free.
5. It should be legal to download copy-righted material for personal use.
6. The police should be able to access private citizens’ web and phone history.
7. Wine farmers should be allowed to sell their wine on their farms.  

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Yes, I'm just bitter at not being there.

Maybe next summer we should arrange a Swedish Atlas meet-up during Almedalen.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So after reading the following article I think it is safe to say that there is no chance of the Left Party being part of the next government:

THIS ARTICLE CONTAINS SWEDISH: READER DISCRETION IS ADVISED.

To sum it up. The Greens and Social Democrats are holding "secret" negotiations on how to format government policy in a future left-wing government after the election. The Left has not been allowed to participate. This in combination with a few very frank quotes from people in key positions including:

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This was already the most common theory of course, but know it seems confirmed beyond doubt. The left will fume. But it's not like they'd be able to not support a centre-left government.

So I can sleep tighter knowing that when the doom arrive on September 14 I won't have to suffer the ex-commies in the cabinet.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

And it's of course the most strategically sound choice. Incumbents generally tend to lose at least 2-3% each election (2010 being the exception) and a Left Party out of government, able to oppose the government from the left making gains in 2018 could be Löfven's best chance of staying in Rosenbad for more than 4 years.

Yes, Schyman's result in '98 was the reason Persson survived that election, so I completely agree that it would be better for both S and V. But the question is if V sees it that way.

Just being a support party is always strategically better, as it gives you most of the power, but with little of the responsibility and the freedom to to vote against unpopular decisions. Still for some reason smaller parties still way too often demand to be included. Considering the V outrage in '10 and '06 when S+MP with-out V was discussed it's likely we'll see the same this time, even though they shouldn't want ministerial portfolios.

When MP enters government it will also be interesting to just how much of their support is soft and how many are voting for them because they look like the cool and modern opposition alternative. FP under a Birgitta Ohlsson leadership could also have a chance at taking centrist-leaning MP voters.

I'd imagine that their support is actually incredibly soft, and much of it might start to melt away as soon as they pass an unpopular policy in government and they all of sudden can't be a party that everyone can project their dream policies onto, and the media cushioning they've had for the last 12 years stops. They're in a dangerous position as they can bleed heavily to both the right and left. 
 

*We need snazzier names for government alternatives.

S+V+MP= (S)(v)a(mp)= Mushroom coalition


A S+M coalition should just be known as The League of Doom.



 



 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

What do you think? Is this a possible scenario?

No. They might go back to some of their more traditional stances on defense and taxes, but besides that I have a hard time seeing the Conservative faction of the party take it more right. I mean, why would they even consider adopting the social policies of a party that in your scenario doesn't even break 4%? As for edging closer to SD on immigration, if that ever happens it'll more likely be a situation like the one in Denmark were almost all the parties make that transition.

As Tayya says, there really isn't anyone from the Conservative-wing who can take the leadership rains. Their most prominent, realistic shot would probably be Christofer Fjellner, and he's just Conservative on economics.   

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

With 9 weeks to go, do you think there's still enough time for the gov. to close the gap or are they done ?

Not unless Stefan Löfvén is all of a sudden revealed to be Frank Underwood.

For the right it's really a battle of minimizing loses and keep as much ground as possible to be able to fight the fight next time, possibly be able to deny the centre-left a majority and be able to keep power in at least one or two regions, and more than a handful of super safe local councils.

I still think the government crawling up to 40-42% with Mushrooms around 46-48% is the most likely, but I'm not as certain as I used to be, since the Alliance parties campaigns have been wholeheartedly uninspiring so far. The only ones who're actually doing decently are us, Centre party, surprisingly to all. I'm not even sure the Moderates have a campaign, and considering their EP campaign, I'm not actually sure that's a bad thing...

In the end I think a lot will come down to FI, and if they manage to come in, and if the other three lefties manage to stay out of saying anything stupid.   

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

A big forest fire in ... Sweden ?

So, the next big campaign issue will probably be climate change ...

No unlikely, if the forest fire leaves a mark it'll probably be on the issue of Disaster Management in general and the response from the government in special. That's were the political attacks from the opposition so far has come from. Although attacks have been few so far, people find it tacky to play party politics in the middle of a disaster, but they'll obviously start to come once the fires are put out.

It might obviously be an effective attack strategy if it's done right and people see the governments response as bad. (Lex Tsunami 2005) But the government might very well counterattack with some of the opposition party's suggested cuts to the police force and military, as they are quite vital in managing disasters such as this one. Especially the military pulls the lion's work on forest fires.

     

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So in the midst of this fire, the first poll in ages also came out today.

NOVUS:

M - 22,4% (+1,2%) 81 seats
FP - 6,1% (-0,7%) 21 seats
C - 5,8% (+0,2%) 22 seats
KD - 4,2% (-0,2%) 15 seats

S - 31,7% (-0,4%) 115 seats
V - 7,3% (+0,6%) 27 seats
MP - 9,9% (-1,4%) 36 seats

SD - 8,8% (+0,5%) 32 seats
FI - 2,6% (-0,3%) 0 seats
Oth: 1,1%

Alliance - 38,5% (+0,5%) 139 seats
Mushrooms - 48,9% (-1,2%) 178 seats

The Mushrooms would have a majority of four seats. 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So in the midst of this fire, the first poll in ages also came out today.

NOVUS:

M - 22,4% (+1,2%) 81 seats
FP - 6,1% (-0,7%) 21 seats
C - 5,8% (+0,2%) 22 seats
KD - 4,2% (-0,2%) 15 seats

S - 31,7% (-0,4%) 115 seats
V - 7,3% (+0,6%) 27 seats
MP - 9,9% (-1,4%) 36 seats

SD - 8,8% (+0,5%) 32 seats
FI - 2,6% (-0,3%) 0 seats
Oth: 1,1%

Alliance - 38,5% (+0,5%) 139 seats
Mushrooms - 48,9% (-1,2%) 178 seats

The Mushrooms would have a majority of four seats. 

...look a few posts up

Haha, I'm an idiot. Totally missed that Tayya had already posted the poll.
Damn it! Why must he be so quick.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Since I could not provide anything valuable on the new poll front, I'll instead offer this poll of polls graphic on how the parties' standing in polls have changed over the last year:



It's a bad bad time to be a Moderate!

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

What's happened to M, S and V for them to drop off so suddenly (more or less)?

I have my theories, but they're just theories, so Tayya and Marbury might disagree with me. (It'll be a long response, but since you asked Hash) 

V enjoyed good numbers last year due to left-wing Greens and Social Democrats (such as my ex-boyfriend to use an example) thought the other two parties too moderate and close to the right, similarly to how it's been looking in many other European countries recently, but on a smaller scale. Now this was especially thanks in large part to the vivid debate on private actors in the health, education, and welfare sectors, and their large profits. After a few scandals, were it among other things turned out that one private daycare center had literally put their kids on a diet of bread and water to save money while the company was making profits, the Left Party, who've taken a strong principled stance to ban profits in the welfare sector and pledged to limit private enterprise in the field, soared.

However in recent months the issue has taken a backseat in the debate to other issues and not been as hotly debated. This coupled with the rise of FI, which is basically the Left Party with extra everything feminism slapped on, led by their skillful and inspiring former leader stealing their votes are probably the reason V has taken somewhat of a slump recently. But as FI seems to have started slipping in support it might mean the party will start to stabilize and even start to increase again.



S has also lost votes to FI, and to the Greens most certainly. Mainly because (I think) the fact that they will not take a stand on anything. S has been trying to be as still as possible in the boat, in order to neither offend their left-flank, nor potential moderate swing-voters. Instead they've simply been attacking the government on generic stuff, and given vague promises such as "Sweden shall have Europe's Lowest Unemployment by 2020." Now this worked very well for quite some time as S reestablished themselves after the Håkan Juholt debacle but as the election is drawing closer people have been starting to notice that they have very few actual proposals on what sort of politics they want to implement when back in government. Now this has not caused their supporters to be displeased with them, but it has been easy to tread over to one of the more inspiring centre-left parties. It's also important to not forget that S is still struggling with their image as grey, old-fashioned, power-hungry party, just this time it's not benefiting the right, but the rest of the left coalition.


M is by far the easiest to explain. The party is completely run out of ideological and political ideas and have completely lost the political initiative. I would go as far as to say that the Moderates aren't even running in the same election as the other seven parties, they have no idea what the issues of the day are, focusing their energy on questions and solutions that are far of the current political radar. Their trump card, the great trust the general public feels for Reinfeldt's, Borg's and Bildt's political competence is also losing its charm. Their devastatingly bad EP-campaign and their result in that election really accelerated their downfall by also giving them the Loser mark, and no swing-voter wants to vote for a loser.


Tl:dr- version:               

V's big winning issue isn't in the spot-light at the moment, and FI's stealing all their marbles.

S is too cautious and dropping to more inspiring and exciting options.

M is disillusioned, tired, and a group of big losers.         

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

New SIFO poll out. You won't get any results from my phone but M is up while MP is down signalling that the post-EP bump is over as the opposite was true in May. Red-Greens don't budge thanks to S improving, Alliance improves despite C and FP losing thanks to a strong showing for M (23,9% - the mighty has fallen...) The margin is SVaMP up 9.8% with a bare majority in mandates. SD holds still at 9, FI down to 2.6% (will they fade before the election??), others down big from an improbable 1.9% to 0.8% contributing to most if the margin decrease.

Where's your precious twitter now?


SIFO:

M - 23,9% (+2,7%) 86 seats
FP - 6,1% (-0,7%) 22 seats
C - 4,6% (-0,9%) 17 seats
KD - 4,3% (+0,8%) 16 seats

S - 30,7% (+1,3%) 111 seats
V - 6,6% (+0,2%) 24 seats
MP - 11,4% (-1,6%) 41 seats

SD - 9,0% (+/-) 32 seats
FI - 2,6% (-0,8%) 0 seats
Oth: 0,8%

Alliance - 38,9% (+1,3%) 141 seats
Mushrooms - 48,7% (-0,1%) 176 seats

The Mushrooms would have a majority by two seats. 

So these two polls seem to agree that the Moderates are making up for some lost ground, Greens are dropping, and FI we can (hopefully) count FI out. Sounds promising enough. ^^

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Do you see the campaign as an interesting one, a balanced one or a dull one ?

It's been incredibly dull so far. But I guess there's still some hope the last month might turn out decently... if very little.

And what do you think turnout will be like ?

From what I remember, it was 84-85% in 2010 ...

Hard to say. If I had to take a guess I'd say that it'll decrease slightly and end up at 81-82%, but that's only my gut feeling.

I really doubt that the Red-Greens will get a majority next month. The Sweden Democrats will probably hold the "balance of power" like last time, but with the Red-Greens as the largest bloc this time around.

As do I. The only real hope for a majority would probably be either if FI imploded completely in the last month, or if they manage to recover and get above 4%. As it is now they leech to many voters that would otherwise vote for S, V, or MP without contributing. If the Alliance increases just as much as 1-2%, getting over the 175 line will be virtually impossible for the Mushrooms. (And in the last six elections, the incumbent government has always improved in the last month)

But of course, just to be clear, there's no knowing what might happen in the end. Elections are... weird. 

Would Reinfeldt try to remain in power in such a scenario, or would he step down?

Reinfeldt has one important advantage, he is in power. A majority in the parliament (riksdag) has to vote against him in a vote of cofidence in order for a change off power. I can not see that SD does this. One possibilty is off course that he resigns.

Four years ago you would have been entirely correct, Fredrik. However as part of the Constitutional Reform of 2010, the constitution now states that a vote of confidence must be held within two weeks of the opening of parliament. Meaning that Reinfeldt won't be able to just skate by the same way he did four years ago. (6:e kap. 3 § Regeringsformen) 

And even if the government could theoretically survive a vote of confidence thanks to enough MPs voting abstain, they will not be able to pass a budget unless they're bigger than S+V+MP. Meaning they'd just get outsed a month later.

So in all likelihood Reinfeldt will resign, allowing Löfvén an attempt to form government, which he most likely will succeed with thanks to abstaining right-wingers. That being said, without a majority Löfvén will be greatly wing-clipped and will either have to cross the aisle or rely on SD support to push through reforms, which will limit the amount of damage his government can do.     

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So I have some news. As of today, I am officially employed as Campaign Manager for the Centre Party in a local election close to where I live. So for the upcoming five weeks I'm afraid I'll be working round the clock and won't have very much time to post here. As much as discussing politics on here are great, being paid to work with politics in RL will have to take priority.

However I do believe this thread is in good hands with Tayya.   

Rerevising my prediction to a gov't hold. Margins decreasing, brainwashed faninists not coming around and it's becomkng more and more clear that the right plans to utilize SD to stay in power essentially forever to feed their donors with the ruins of our welfare state.

... or maybe not. <.<

Has Feminist Initiative made a statement on question b) yet ?

Yes, Schyman has said they want the next government be led by Stefan Löfvén.