No love for Boris Johnson here...
Why would he want to go back to being an MP?
No matter how weak a candidate Livingstone is, Johnson has only got (at best) a 50% chance of re-election; the second set of elections is usually brutal for governments in their first term.
Huh? 2001, 1983, October 1974 (if that counts), 1966 and 1955 were pretty good elections for the first-term incumbent governments.
Unless you're only referring to the London mayoral elections, but we only have 2004 to go on as an example of what you're saying...
