NH State Senate- D Gerrymander
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  NH State Senate- D Gerrymander
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Author Topic: NH State Senate- D Gerrymander  (Read 581 times)
Morning in Atlas
SawxDem
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« on: August 14, 2014, 03:12:29 AM »
« edited: August 14, 2014, 03:14:47 AM by Northeast Assemblyman Sawx »

I just lost my mega-spergpost about this, so I'm just going to go off of memory:\





SD-1 (blue, D+5): Safe D, Jeff Woodburn
SD-2 (green, D+10): Safe D, Huh
SD-3 (purple, R+2): Lean R, Jeb Bradley vs. Sam Cataldo (I'd say it Leans Bradley, and safe with him in the general. Leans R with Cataldo, like his old district)
SD-4 (red, R+4): Likely R, Huh (maybe Jim Forsythe)
SD-5 (off-yellow, D+6) Safe D, David Pierce
SD-6 (teal, D+3): Leans D, probably Jackie Cilley
SD-7 (gray, EVEN): Toss-up, Andrew Hosmer vs. Jeannie Forrester (I'd say it Tilts Hosmer just because he's represented more of the district)
SD-8 (i guess slate, D+6): Safe D, Diane Tanner
SD-9 (cyan, R+9): Safe R, Andy Sanborn
SD-10 (hot pink, D+9): Safe D, Molly Kelly
SD-11 (chartreuse, R+4): Likely R, whoever makes it out of the primary
SD-12 (cornflower, R+2): Toss-up, Peggy Gilmour (Leans D with her)
SD-13 (salmon, D+5): Safe D, Bette Lasky
SD-14 (brown, R+9): Safe R, Sharon Carson
SD-15 (orange, D+10): Safe D, whoever makes it out of the primary
SD-16 (lime green, R+2): Lean R, David Boutin (though a strong candidate could take him out, especially with a spoiler like 2012)
SD-17 (that other vaguely blue blob in the center, R+9): Safe R, John Reagan vs. Someone More Conservative (Reagan isn't appreciated by the establishment, unfortunately)
SD-18 (yellow, close-up, R+2): Toss-up, Donna Soucy (Leans D with her)
SD-19 (olive, close-up, R+10): Safe R, whoever wins
SD-20 (light pink, close-up, EVEN): Toss-up, Lou D'Allessandro (Safe D with him)
SD-21 (maroon, D+12): Safe D, David Watters
SD-22 (greenish-yellow, R+11): Safe R, Chuck Morse
SD-23 (sky blue, D+1): Toss-up, Russell Prescott vs. Any Democrat
SD-24 (indigo, D+4): Likely D, Nancy Stiles vs. Chris Muns (Leans D vs. Stiles)

So in a neutral year, Generic D vs. Generic R, we have:
8 Safe D
1 Likely D
1 Lean D
5 Toss-ups
3 Leans R
2 Likely R
5 Safe R

So 10-8 D, with 5 toss-ups to decide the Senate. Pretty fair map, except with the current rosters of candidates/incumbents, we have:

9 Safe D
0 Likely D
4 Leans D
2 Toss-ups (one of which tilts Democratic)
1 Leans R
2 Likely R
6 Safe R

Of course, in a wave (or a few retirements), this could crumble, but it's indeed possible to carve out a Democratic majority. The Democratic ceiling in this map would be something like 16-9 D, and the R ceiling would of course be 15-8 R (but that would have a lot of retirements). It's pretty difficult to gerrymander NH for Ds, but I'll see about Rs later.
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