How would a Hillary Clinton vs. Elizabeth Warren primary play out?

[IceSpear]

I'd give Hillary 90/10 odds in this scenario. Still, that's fairly meaningful since I see Warren as the only candidate that could take her odds below ~99.9%.

[IceSpear]

If history is any guide there are plenty of examples of the front runner getting trounced. I think that once a candidate like Warren decides to get in (and I don't think she wants to) it'd be a 50/50 proposition, especially since she has a lot of grassroots support and a devoted liberal following.

Calling Hillary a "frontrunner" is kind of an understatement. In 2008 she was a frontrunner. In 2016 she's completely dominant. The two are definitely not equivalent.

[IceSpear]

Warren loses Iowa, wins New Hampshire and South Carolina, loses Nevada and gets blown out the door on Super Tuesday.

Uh, did you reverse the names or something? If Warren is going to win any early state it would be Iowa.

[IceSpear]

Warren loses Iowa, wins New Hampshire and South Carolina, loses Nevada and gets blown out the door on Super Tuesday.

Uh, did you reverse the names or something? If Warren is going to win any early state it would be Iowa.

I disagree.. given that Warren lives across the border in Massachusetts, I'd argue she's a better bet to win in New Hampshire. As for South Carolina, I'm unsure of how many in the minority community there have forgiven Hillary and Bill for repeatedly playing the "race card" in 2008, so Warren certainly can win there (as could Webb if he's still in the race).

I doubt anyone in NH cares whether or not Warren is from Massachusetts. Hillary won it in 2008 when she was in much worse shape than this cycle. And Webb will be lucky to crack double digits in any state, assuming he even makes it to the primary phase.

[IceSpear]

The likeliest scenario: Clinton wins Iowa big, New Hampshire narrowly and South Carolina big.

She has the better network in Iowa. Keep in mind that in 2008, Obama was the Senator from the big state next door, while Edwards had basically lived there for four years.

Warren has a geographic advantage in MA, but I still expect Hillary to win.

I don't see any reason Warren would have an advantage in SC. From my understanding, the Clintons are popular with black Democrats. Any claims about the primary seem resolved by the Clintons campaigning for Obama, and HRC serving in his cabinet.

This is just what I think is the likeliest scenario. Hillary might do even better, so that New Hampshire isn't even close.

Or Warren might inspire the grassroots, and the Clintons might upset black voters during efforts to distance themselves from President Obama.

Yeah, but you have to take into account that Iowa is a caucus and New Hampshire is a primary. Two entirely different beasts.