SHOCK poll: Eric Cantor (R) in primary trouble !?

[Sol]

Will Brat have a democratic challenger?

Yes, it's actually another professor from the college Brat teaches at. But this is a R+10 district, with Romney winning 57% of the 2012 vote and Cantor winning 58% of the 2012 vote, so even though Brat is a tea partier, this is definitely a Likely R if not Safe R race.

Actually, Northam won VA-07 by a slim margin. It's more Democratic than McIntyre's district, so I'd imagine Democrats have a chance in this district. A very, very faint chance, but nevertheless a chance.

This isn't a traditionally Blue Dog-ish district like NC-07 though. It's basically ultra-conservative Richmond/DC suburbs plus some rural areas. Not very elastic.

[Sol]

Brat is also from Hanover County, so home county effect there.