The case for Texas eventually passing California can be summarized in one word: drought.
The evidence indicates that the 1900's were the wettest in millennium. If rainfall returns to historical levels, and, groundwater levels fall, Texas could grow sufficiently faster for sufficiently long.
Texas has water issues, too, and is going to become much hotter and drier.
Yep. Annoying to see this unacknowledged.
Could still lead to the title happening...with both far less than today, with Texas having like 20 districts and set to lose another 3.