Conservative Party (UK) leadership election, 2016

[Antonio the Sixth]

Could the tories Build a Benjamin Disraeli one-nation-tory coalition of  (shire middle class and urban working class)?

That won't happen. The Tories are, more explicitly and unabashedly so than most European right-wing parties even, the Party of the Rich.

[Hnv1]

A smart Tory leader,
would seize the movement as labour is in a disarray and their working class votes in the midlands and the north floating voters after the leave vote,


https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/most-labour-mps-represent-a-constituency-that-voted-leave-36f13210f5c6#.2sec26xx0  

70% of Labour Held Seats Backed Brexit

Could the tories Build a Benjamin Disraeli one-nation-tory coalition of  (shire middle class and urban working class)?

Hell will freeze before Liverpool and Manchester would vote Tory. A populist like Farage could do well there but all those Eaton boys?

[Blair]

You have to remember that a lot of the 'leave' voters were very much part of the proud 'my mum voted labour' group of tribal labourites that exists. The Leave campaign ran on populist themes centered around the NHS and immigration (two issues where New Labour were won on)

[Suburbia]

I think that May will win the leadership, she'll be the second female prime minister. I wonder if she will have a better relationship with Queen Elizabeth II and the Duke of Edinburgh than Margaret Thatcher had in the 1980s.

[Hnv1]

A smart Tory leader,
would seize the movement as labour is in a disarray and their working class votes in the midlands and the north floating voters after the leave vote,


https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/most-labour-mps-represent-a-constituency-that-voted-leave-36f13210f5c6#.2sec26xx0  

70% of Labour Held Seats Backed Brexit

Could the tories Build a Benjamin Disraeli one-nation-tory coalition of  (shire middle class and urban working class)?

Hell will freeze before Liverpool and Manchester would vote Tory. A populist like Farage could do well there but all those Eaton boys?

Liverpool and manchester are gonna stay Labour  for a while and they voted Remain anyways,
However, st Helen, sheffield, Doncaster, the north East of England, the Black country, Welsh valleys, etc are interesting to watch.

Stephen Crabb is working class, born in inverness and raised in western wales, brought by a single mother.
Andrea Leadsom, is also a working class and went to a grammar school.
Liam Fox, born just outside glasgow and raised in a council house by a scottish working class family.
Theresa may, was also raised by a working class family and went to a grammar school.
Gove, was adopted and raised in Aberdeen by a middle class family.

Surprisingly, none of the tory candidates been to Eaton, except boris and he left.
and listening to Crabb, May and Gove Speeches, they do seem to target blue collar voters.
Specially Gove talking about capitalism not working and needing reform, how most of the managers think they are steve Job and earn more than they deserve i was genuinely impressed by his speech.

It's not the candidate it's the party, Crabb could turn Tory % in most of those cities look better but the Labour-Tory tribalism runs deep there, this is not Canada with volatile swings. Plus a too much of a "working class" Tory I think will have to givve a Ukip feel to actually be competitive there which will drive immigrants and non white Brits to vote even more heavily Labour

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Liverpool and manchester are gonna stay Labour  for a while and they voted Remain anyways,
However, st Helen, sheffield, Doncaster, the north East of England, the Black country, Welsh valleys, etc are interesting to watch.

Those places are as approximately as likely to start voting Tory as I am.

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Leadsom is literally a banker from the Home Counties.

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May's father was an Anglican clergyman...

[Soonerdem]

I don't know a lot about these politicians but is Theresa May the "establishment" pick for the conservatives and leadsom, who apparently is back by British Breitbart, the ukip wing of the consrvatives pick? I don't know exactly how they are viewed in Britain so can one of the U.K. Posters tell me if that's about right?

[Cassius]

I don't know a lot about these politicians but is Theresa May the "establishment" pick for the conservatives and leadsom, who apparently is back by British Breitbart, the ukip wing of the consrvatives pick? I don't know exactly how they are viewed in Britain so can one of the U.K. Posters tell me if that's about right?

One could view May, Give and Crabb as all being establishment candidates of sorts - all three are cabinet ministers, May and Crabb both backed Remain like Cameron and Gove, in spite of being one of the main figures in the Leave campaign, is arguably the closest of the three to Cameron and his set, whom I guess you could call the Tory establishment. May is not, in fact, that close to Cameron, but seems to have emerged as his preferred successor in order to frustrate Johnson's hopes, although obviously that's rather superfluous now. However, given her levels of cabinet support and support in the wider parliamentary party it's about right to refer to her as the establishment candidate - Gove has always been seen as a bit odd by many of his colleagues and he's certainly burnt a lot of bridges over the last few months, whilst Crabb is regarded as not being experienced enough (although undoubtedly there's a healthy dollop of social snobbery playing into his failure to attract a big following thus far, although that may not have been helped by his efforts to frame himself as the non-Eton candidate, again now rater superfluous).

Leadsom is a bit of an unknown quantity - the referendum debates were her first real exposure to the general public, but she is being backed by several Tories who've been ed over by Cameron over the years (ie Owen Paterson and Tim Loughton, although in the latter's case I wonder if there's some Warwick solidarity coming into play). Not sure if it would be fair to describe her as UKIP lite though.

[Blair]

I really don't know anything about Leadsome- she's clearly going to be in the final round, and the winner of the first round (most likely May) never wins. So she's got a good chance if she hammers home the Brexit issue....

I hadn't even heard of her before the EU referendum

[Soonerdem]

I don't know a lot about these politicians but is Theresa May the "establishment" pick for the conservatives and leadsom, who apparently is back by British Breitbart, the ukip wing of the consrvatives pick? I don't know exactly how they are viewed in Britain so can one of the U.K. Posters tell me if that's about right?

One could view May, Give and Crabb as all being establishment candidates of sorts - all three are cabinet ministers, May and Crabb both backed Remain like Cameron and Gove, in spite of being one of the main figures in the Leave campaign, is arguably the closest of the three to Cameron and his set, whom I guess you could call the Tory establishment. May is not, in fact, that close to Cameron, but seems to have emerged as his preferred successor in order to frustrate Johnson's hopes, although obviously that's rather superfluous now. However, given her levels of cabinet support and support in the wider parliamentary party it's about right to refer to her as the establishment candidate - Gove has always been seen as a bit odd by many of his colleagues and he's certainly burnt a lot of bridges over the last few months, whilst Crabb is regarded as not being experienced enough (although undoubtedly there's a healthy dollop of social snobbery playing into his failure to attract a big following thus far, although that may not have been helped by his efforts to frame himself as the non-Eton candidate, again now rater superfluous).

Leadsom is a bit of an unknown quantity - the referendum debates were her first real exposure to the general public, but she is being backed by several Tories who've been ed over by Cameron over the years (ie Owen Paterson and Tim Loughton, although in the latter's case I wonder if there's some Warwick solidarity coming into play). Not sure if it would be fair to describe her as UKIP lite though.

Thanks. Apparently she has been in parliament for just 6 years which would make her an unknown quantity. I think a "I'm the brexit candidate" message could work but I think her lack of experience could her. Although I don't know maybe the uk doesn't really care that much about experience.

[Soonerdem]

Also this might be a little off topic but what is going to happen to Cameron? Will he just resign from parliament or go backbench and retire in 2020 or will he try and stick around in parliament?

[joevsimp]

Also this might be a little off topic but what is going to happen to Cameron? Will he just resign from parliament or go backbench and retire in 2020 or will he try and stick around in parliament?

AFAIK, Blair was the only ex-PM in living memory to give up their seat and trigger a by-election upon resigning as PM. Ted Heath was PM in the 70's and stayed in the commons until 2001.

Cameron will retreat to the back benches and probably stand down at the next election, and silently fume that former PMs no longer automatically get made Earls like in the good old days

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of the postwar PMs...

Attlee continued to lead Labour until the Party's defeat in the 1955 election, after which he resigned his seat following elevation to the peerage.

Churchill only stood down in 1964 (two elections after his retirement).

Eden resigned from the Commons a few months after resigning as Prime Minister. Given that he almost immediately regretted doing so we can assume he was probably off his face on amphetamines at the time.

Macmillan stayed on as an MP until the first election after his resignation (1964).

Douglas-Home remained an MP until the October 1974 election (and actually served in Heath's government).

(Wilson)

Heath, of course, remained an MP until the 2001 election which was held 27 years after he lost office.

Wilson remained an MP until the 1983 election.

Callaghan remained an MP until the 1987 election, only hanging on in 1983 due to his personal vote.

Thatcher remained an MP until the 1992 election.

Major remained an MP until the 2001 election.

Blair resigned as an MP immediately following his retirement as PM.

Brown remained an MP until the 2015 election.

[Blair]

No doubt Cameron will be writing his memoirs over the next 6 month

[Soonerdem]

Of the postwar PMs...

Attlee continued to lead Labour until the Party's defeat in the 1955 election, after which he resigned his seat following elevation to the peerage.

Churchill only stood down in 1964 (two elections after his retirement).

Eden resigned from the Commons a few months after resigning as Prime Minister. Given that he almost immediately regretted doing so we can assume he was probably off his face on amphetamines at the time.

Macmillan stayed on as an MP until the first election after his resignation (1964).

Douglas-Home remained an MP until the October 1974 election (and actually served in Heath's government).

(Wilson)

Heath, of course, remained an MP until the 2001 election which was held 27 years after he lost office.

Wilson remained an MP until the 1983 election.

Callaghan remained an MP until the 1987 election, only hanging on in 1983 due to his personal vote.

Thatcher remained an MP until the 1992 election.

Major remained an MP until the 2001 election.

Blair resigned as an MP immediately following his retirement as PM.

Brown remained an MP until the 2015 election.

Interesting. Cameron is young enough where he is going to be around, as in he wil be a public figure, for a long time even if the historians slam his legacy as I think they will

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Of the postwar PMs...

Attlee continued to lead Labour until the Party's defeat in the 1955 election, after which he resigned his seat following elevation to the peerage.

Churchill only stood down in 1964 (two elections after his retirement).

Eden resigned from the Commons a few months after resigning as Prime Minister. Given that he almost immediately regretted doing so we can assume he was probably off his face on amphetamines at the time.

Macmillan stayed on as an MP until the first election after his resignation (1964).

Douglas-Home remained an MP until the October 1974 election (and actually served in Heath's government).

(Wilson)

Heath, of course, remained an MP until the 2001 election which was held 27 years after he lost office.

Wilson remained an MP until the 1983 election.

Callaghan remained an MP until the 1987 election, only hanging on in 1983 due to his personal vote.

Thatcher remained an MP until the 1992 election.

Major remained an MP until the 2001 election.

Blair resigned as an MP immediately following his retirement as PM.

Brown remained an MP until the 2015 election.

There was a former PM in the Commons almost continuously from at least 1922 to 2001, with the exception of a few months in 1945 after Lloyd George got his peerage.

[Cassius]

Things going from bad to worse for Gove, with several of Johnson's backers laying into him very savagely, with one saying there's a place reserved for him in Hell and another threatening to turn him into ASOIAF's Theon Greyjoy (lmao). Wouldn't be surprised if Leadsom pips Gove to the post for a place in the final round.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Of the postwar PMs...

Attlee continued to lead Labour until the Party's defeat in the 1955 election, after which he resigned his seat following elevation to the peerage.

Haven't Attlee decided to stay on for so long (having led the party for twenty years, after all) mostly to prevent Morrison from having a chance to succeed him?

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Major always struck me as somebody with an incredibly speed political rise. He was an MP for mere 10 years before becoming the PM, and cabinet member for just three years (including like one and a half on actual senior ministerial position). And, when he retired as PM, his service was just about 22 years.

I don't think any of modern PM's had such a rapid rise, aside from Cameron (elected in 2001, and never served in the cabinet).

[Antonio the Sixth]

and another threatening to turn him into ASOIAF's Theon Greyjoy (lmao).

[Cassius]

and another threatening to turn him into ASOIAF's Theon Greyjoy (lmao).

The original tweet.

[Blair]

I read that May's campaign is trying to get MP's to vote for Crabb (if it's true that May has these 200 MP's behind here) then she could easily get 120/130 in the first round and boost Crabb up into the 70's.

[Blair]

Also funny that May's success is coming from the notorious following that George Osborne had built up in the Commons. He's spend the last 10 years building up his support, and from the look the majority of it has backed May (with a bit for Crabb)

[Pandaguineapig]

It looks like fox or leadsom are the most likely to get eliminated first

[Famous Mortimer]

Fox is a joke candidate. Although I suppose the same was true of Gove 2 or 3 years ago. Anyway, I can't imagine anyone else goes before Fox. Leadsom actually has a decent amount of endorsements and is apparently getting backing from MPs who think Gove is "untrustworthy" for betraying Boris.

[Mr. Morden]

So the first ballot for this is on Tuesday?  What time would they most likely be announcing the results?