New poll hype thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Marquette Law School will release a new Wisconsin poll at 12:15 pm CDT tomorrow, August 31.  http://law.marquette.edu/current-students/marquette-law-school-august-poll

[GeorgiaModerate]

Virginia won, and PPP will poll there this weekend.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Marist better have a lot of polls up its sleeve because they haven't released anything in almost a month.

I think I saw on Twitter from Mark Murray that they are going out into the field this weekend.

LOL, QU is an A- pollster, while Marist an A polster. Not a big deal.

Why do you want Marist that much? Because they had some D house effect?

The fact that they're a high-quality pollster is sufficient reason to look forward to their polls.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just got polled. Pretty safe to assume it was PPP from all the silly questions.

Any particularly interesting ones?

[GeorgiaModerate]

PPP is polling North Carolina, and you can suggest questions here: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/09/north-carolina-question-suggestions.html

Their last three NC polls (earliest to latest) were Tie, C+2, C+1.  I'll predict C+2 again.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Never mind, they released it already.

which one?

The Monmouth NV poll (Trump +2).  See the polling board.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump should be up by at least 6 in GA now, maybe as much as 8 or 10 - if the poll was done in the last few days.

Definitely a lot of Trump-mentum going on recently.

I'd guess GA would be more than IA, I'll guess Trump +9

In any other year I'd agree, but in this one I think it's very plausible that Trump could be ahead more in IA than GA.  I'll guess T+5.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/777921497558093825

Monmouth's Patrick Murray says Hillary's numbers are recovering.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And in https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/777917928264073216 he says:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't get accolades for getting Florida right?

Anyway, this could just mean that the numbers for Hillary this week are a bit better. I wouldn't assume that they're back to where they were in August.

Yeah, it would be very surprising if they were back to that level.  But if this is true (and it's also an idea supported by the Gallup favorability numbers posted a couple of days ago), it would indicate that Trump's recent surge has peaked, and the numbers are moving back toward Clinton.  How fast and how much?  Who knows.

IMO the key lesson here is that polls are going to continue to fluctuate until Election Day.  No matter which side you favor: don't panic, and don't get overconfident.  Steer the <ahem> middle course.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I just answered a long robopoll from "GMI", which I'm assuming is Gravis Marketing Inc., so look for them to release a Georgia poll soon.  Questions were (as best I can remember):

Are you registered to vote?
How likely are you to vote?  (Not likely, somewhat likely, very likely, I always vote)
Favorability of Obama, Clinton, Trump, Johnson, Stein
Presidential preference (choices Clinton, Trump, Johnson, Stein, although Stein is only a write-in candidate here)
Country on right track/wrong track?
How is the economy working for you and your family?
Approve/disapprove of Clinton's job as SoS?
How important is a candidate's health to you?
How do you perceive Clinton's health relative to Trump's?  (Better, worse, about the same)
When Clinton left the 9/11 memorial and subsequently announced she had pneumonia, did it make you think she was incapable of carrying out the duties of President?
Are you aware of the "basket of deplorables" comment?
What's your opinion of the deplorables comment? (Outrageous and deplorable, and a major issue; Deplorable, but not a major issue; unsure [There was no "not deplorable" or "I agree with" option])
Opinion of Obama's plan to increase # of refugees from 85K this year to 110K next year?
Opinion of Clinton's plan to increase # of Syrian refugees from 10K this year to 65K annually?
[Possibly one or two more that I can't recall]
Demographic questions (age, race, gender, education level, party ID, political ideology)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Previous Q polls (8/9-16):

CO: C+10 (49-39)
VA: C+12 (50-38)
IA: C+3 (47-44)

I didn't find one for Georgia.

[GeorgiaModerate]

PPP didn't ask Twitter for a state to poll this week, so the implication is they're not doing a public poll this weekend.  But they're doing about 60 private polls per week, according to this tweet: https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/779816992404627456

[GeorgiaModerate]

From PPP:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/781271373524205574

[GeorgiaModerate]

CO: Clinton +6
FL: Clinton +2
PA: Clinton +7
VA: Clinton +9
NC: Clinton +2

Now that is a 7

No, I think that would be higher.  Democrats would be pretty happy with all of those results.  With an overall 7, at least 1 of the 5 polls is likely to be disappointing for D's.  Maybe 2 of them.

[GeorgiaModerate]

CO: Clinton +6
FL: Clinton +2
PA: Clinton +7
VA: Clinton +9
NC: Clinton +2

Now that is a 7

No, I think that would be higher.  Democrats would be pretty happy with all of those results.  With an overall 7, at least 1 of the 5 polls is likely to be disappointing for D's.  Maybe 2 of them.

Wouldn't tiny leads in NC and FL be disappointing?

Not from PPP, I think.  They've provided some of the better Trump results in those states.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just got a brief robopoll from a source that sounded something like "Mine Creek Associates".  All they asked was the Presidential and Georgia Senate races, political ideology, and gender.  There seems to be a lot more polling in Georgia this year; this is the second I've gotten, and I know several other people who have as well.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well, I just answered my THIRD poll in the past two weeks.  This one was a live interviewer from a number in Princeton NJ.  But there were no election questions; they asked is the country moving in the right direction or on the wrong track, is the economy getting better or worse in your area, and a few demographic questions.

[GeorgiaModerate]

well hello captain optimism.

Vanderbilt showed Romney up 3 and 7 points in TN in 2012. He won by 20 points on election day.

Yeah, polls in safe states for either party often understate the final result.  The population leans heavily to one party (by definition, if it's a safe state), so undecideds break toward that party.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ohio won the vote for PPP to poll this weekend.

[GeorgiaModerate]

You guys are being very Cloptimistic (tm GeorgiaModerate) for that OH PPP poll.   I'll predict a tie.

[GeorgiaModerate]

2 of the first 3 private polls we've done that were conducted Friday-Saturday have Trump in the 70s of the Republican vote

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/785179324873895939

If that's representative and it holds up through the election, this will be a landslide.  And if many of those non-Trump R voters stay home, the House will flip.  (The Senate too, but that was likely happening anyway.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rick Wilson: I have just seen evidence of the utter collapse of the GOP nominee in a red state. It will make News. Soon.
https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/785990347629424640?lang=de

Utah, perhaps?

That or Arizona would be my guess.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rick Wilson: I have just seen evidence of the utter collapse of the GOP nominee in a red state. It will make News. Soon.
https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/785990347629424640?lang=de

Utah, perhaps?

That or Arizona would be my guess.

I think it's Utah. Larry Sabato dramatically moved the state from Safe to Likely today. He's most likely seen some internal polling

He actually moved it all the way from Safe to Lean, but that was yesterday.

I wonder if Wilson is referring to the Google Consumer Survey of Utah that just dropped (see the polling board for details.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Marquette Law poll of WI will be released tomorrow at 12:15 CDT. http://law.marquette.edu/current-students/issues-marquette-law-school-october-poll

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Marquette Law poll release is going on now, can be watched at https://law-media.marquette.edu/Mediasite/Play/d4bac28d2066460da7aef4d19adcb0381d.