MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[McGovernForPrez]

Jeez I take a short nap today and miss all the fun. Hoping Gianforte gets bodyslammed in the polls tomorrow. What an awful person.

[McGovernForPrez]

Any Montana voters on Atlas, please consider this incident very carefully when voting. If you vote for Gianforte, you are endorsing this incident and saying it is a good thing. Vote for Wicks, or heck, even Quist, instead.

Wow Wulfric sort of endorsing the socialist. Never thought I'd see the day.

[McGovernForPrez]

This was already basically a tossup before this incident. I think this will drive Quist over the edge.

[McGovernForPrez]

Quist's chances have been treated lower than they are all along.

Up until this, he virtually had no chance.

That isn't true lol. Plenty of people here have seen a narrow Quist win. Even MT Treasurer said it was anybody's race going into this. The polling has been so dogsh*t that it's impossible to tell who was winning from it.

[McGovernForPrez]

Quist's chances have been treated lower than they are all along.

Up until this, he virtually had no chance.

That isn't true lol. Plenty of people here have seen a narrow Quist win. Even MT Treasurer said it was anybody's race going into this. The polling has been so dogsh*t that it's impossible to tell who was winning from it.

He was probably just basing his guesses on the predictit prices.

I've been on predict for a year and a half lol, they have some smart people there, but most of them have literally no clue how to read into local elections. Made so much money on Bernie winning IN iand RI in the primaries. They typically bet on how they superficially view the state from their DC perspective of America.

[McGovernForPrez]

Quist's chances have been treated lower than they are all along.

Up until this, he virtually had no chance.

That isn't true lol. Plenty of people here have seen a narrow Quist win. Even MT Treasurer said it was anybody's race going into this. The polling has been so dogsh*t that it's impossible to tell who was winning from it.

He was probably just basing his guesses on the predictit prices.

I'd been making my guess based on observing Montana's congressional trend and how MT was saying here that Gianforte's campaign was being run relatively normal.

Montana has had two Democratic Senators up until 2014, and still has one fairly popular Senator. They do vote D at the national level with a decent frequency.

[McGovernForPrez]

Quist's chances have been treated lower than they are all along.

Up until this, he virtually had no chance.

That isn't true lol. Plenty of people here have seen a narrow Quist win. Even MT Treasurer said it was anybody's race going into this. The polling has been so dogsh*t that it's impossible to tell who was winning from it.

He was probably just basing his guesses on the predictit prices.

I'd been making my guess based on observing Montana's congressional trend and how MT was saying here that Gianforte's campaign was being run relatively normal.

Montana has had two Democratic Senators up until 2014, and still has one fairly popular Senator. They do vote D at the national level with a decent frequency.

I get that.  I was thinking in more recent years, especially with Zinke.  Maybe I jumped the gun a little. I just thought that in the House it would trend more GOP.

Fair enough. I tended to be thinking special election dynamics gain Quist some fighting chance even before this.

[McGovernForPrez]

Can we agree that if Gianforte weren't a rich white man, he'd have been shoved in the back of a squad car in handcuffs immediately after this happened?

This. The fact that they just let him get away freely even with all these witnesses and audio is the clearest example of some form of privilege. You all can debate which kind.

It also doesn't help that the Police Chief is a known contributor to the Gianforte campaign.

[McGovernForPrez]

Haven't read all the pages, but a lot of them.  I'm surprised nobody thought this: Gianforte likely responded with his (alleged) assault and battery because he was under intense stress caused by the surprising closeness of the race.  I think it's clear he wasn't about to handily win.

That's actually a good point. If he was coasting he would've been much calmer. He ran for governor last year, losing by 4 and I don't recall reading about any outbursts.

Maybe he's just actually sick and tired of obnoxious behavior by journalists? The dude clearly has an anger problem. The guy barged in - that is confirmed. Crazy Greg proceeded to snap. I wouldn't read too much into this, we'll get our answer tomorrow.

Can we please start calling him Crazy Greg? I love the Donald Trump style naming and this one has a real ring to it.

[McGovernForPrez]

chuck johnson is a real hero....

Lol where is that from? Crazy Greg is now relying on fake news. SAD!

[McGovernForPrez]

Grappling Greg

[McGovernForPrez]

Man I gotta thank Crazy Greg for all that meme value he's blessed us with.

[McGovernForPrez]

Man I gotta thank Crazy Greg for all that meme value he's blessed us with.

Crazy Greg looks like Jared Fogle's skinny uncle.

Jared Fogle visited my elementary school as a kid 0.0

[McGovernForPrez]

Man I gotta thank Crazy Greg for all that meme value he's blessed us with.

Crazy Greg looks like Jared Fogle's skinny uncle.

Jared Fogle visited my elementary school as a kid 0.0

I'd trust him more than Drumpf around children.

I remember he carried around the 60 inch waisted jeans he used to wear so all the kids could see. Kinda creepy looking back on it.

[McGovernForPrez]

BEEN BUSY ALL DAY

HOLY HELL

Yeah Crazy Greg lost his temper...

[McGovernForPrez]

I'm not sure how Jeff Roe could possibly know this, but he says:

Jeff Roe‏ @jeffroe  18m18 minutes ago
#MTAL 65% of votes are in and it looks to be about 50%'ish @RobQuistforMT 40%'ish @GregForMontana and 10% indie or no vote history to tell.

Jeff Roe‏ @jeffroe  13m13 minutes ago
#MTAL means roughly @GregForMontana needs to get around 58% of Election Day vote to win. Assuming 400K total votes. 259K are already cast.

Jeff Roe‏ @jeffroe  12m12 minutes ago
#MTAL roughly 8,801 or 6.3% of Election Day voters have to flip (no pun) to Quist. Not vote indie or just not vote but vote Quist.

Jeff Roe‏ @jeffroe  3m3 minutes ago
#MTAL in other words 17,601 @GregForMontana voters need to NOT go vote in order to elect @RobQuistforMT

Wicks did not get 10% of the early vote, sorry.

Early vote leans Dem, we already knew this. That final 10% didn't necessarily vote for Wicks. It just means they didn't have enough history to know who they voted for. If Quist was ahead by 10 in the early vote that probably suggested a really close race any, even without the slamgate.

[McGovernForPrez]

Fivethirtyeight saw our polls https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/montanas-special-election-could-give-the-gop-another-reason-to-fret/

We've been acknowledged!!!!

[McGovernForPrez]

Guys, wouldn't it be cool to watch a tag team wrestling match between Gianforte and Trump, vs Quist and Bullock. I think I'd die.

[McGovernForPrez]

Just watch the county by county results and don't overreact to early returns. It's probably the best to wait until at least 70% of the vote is in (if not more than that) before making a projection, even if it "looks" like there is a winner early on.

Well, some people might stay level-headed and keep in mind how unrepresentative early returns can be, but we all know how much of Atlas will react later tonight.

If Quist is ahead by more than 10%: OMG! Quistslide here we come! Bye-bye, Crazy Greg!

If Gianforte ever takes the lead: OMG! Quist is done!

The correct term is Violent Greg.

Nah. It's Greg Fortissimo.

It's Crazy Greg because it sounds like a nickname Trump would come up with.

[McGovernForPrez]

The suspense is killing me lol. I've been so vested in this election.

[McGovernForPrez]

Just 4 more minutes, the nerd in me is excited.

Me too. But I've been heartbroken so much this year. I would've been heartbroken in 2012 if Obama lost, too, but this is different. What results page are you using?

NYT is the best imo https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/montana-house-special-election

Might also check in with DDHQ since they sometimes get things faster somehow.

[McGovernForPrez]

Wicks has such a high percentage of the vote tbh.

[McGovernForPrez]

I knew this race was being overblown!   It always was a lot of hot air expecting Quist to win...

You're behind on the times this race is looking good.

[McGovernForPrez]

Early vote in Montana leans Republican, calm down.

Since when?

This was from this morning:
https://mobile.twitter.com/tbonier/status/867733358201237506

I hope you're right about this, but it seems contrary to the Bullock results. Maybe that's because Bullock was running in a presidential year and EV tended to heavily favor Hillary.