Democratic Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET)

[Holmes]

Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo flipped to Sanders, but Clinton's margin continues to expand.

[IceSpear]

I do believe they count provisionals only after all main-in votes have been counted, right? So I'd expect Clinton's margin to expand after all main-in votes are counted, then it should tighten a bit again after counting whichever provisionals they ultimately end up counting. But I believe this whole process will take quite a few weeks.

There's not really any rush.

There is for Reddit. They're still confident of victory. lol

[NOVA Green]

Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo flipped to Sanders, but Clinton's margin continues to expand.

Source for Santa Barbara? Saw the numbers on S.L.O....

[Holmes]

Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo flipped to Sanders, but Clinton's margin continues to expand.

Source for Santa Barbara? Saw the numbers on S.L.O....

The California SoS site. Sanders took a 107 vote lead.

[AGA]

 It makes sense that so many people chose West Virginia as one of the four states. It really has gone more Republican during the Obama administration and Clinton lost its primary by a large margin.

[NOVA Green]

It makes sense that so many people chose West Virginia as one of the four states. It really has gone more Republican during the Obama administration and Clinton lost its primary by a large margin.

Hey Chrome--- not quite sure what you are saying regarding the 6/7 Dem primaries.... although WV is a fascinating topic, I think you might have meant to post on another thread?

[NOVA Green]

So Huge night for Cal-Dem vote counting when we are finally starting to see the tail end of Vote-by-Mail (VbM), with an additional 250k votes having been counted in the past 24 hours...

These are all overwhelmingly late VbM's with the exception of handful of extremely low population counties that have already counted Provisional (Provo) ballots...

LA County- 40.6k (40-60 Hillary). First update of election results in the county all VbMs and >250k VbMs and 252k Provos (Heavily same day county).

Santa Clara County- 25.2k votes (47-53 Hillary) and ~30k provisionals

Contra Costa County- 22.4k votes (49.5-50.5% Hillary) and 19k Provos.

Alameda County- 20.8k votes (47.5-52.5% Hillary) and 42k Provos.

San Diego County- 18.3k votes (39-61 Hillary) and 73k Provos.

Stanislaus- 14.5k Votes (49-51 Hillary) and 6k Provos.

Riverside- 14.4k votes (41-59 Hillary) and 28k Provos.

Ventura- 12.8k votes (52-48 Bernie) and 15k Provos.

San Francisco- 11.6k votes (47-53 Hillary) and 20k Provos.

Orange- 10.4k votes (51.5-48.5 Bernie) and 61k Provos.

San Mateo- 10.3k votes (35-65 Hillary) and 13k Provos.

Fresno- 8.7k votes (45-55 Hillary) and 15k Provos.

Santa Barbara- 8.2k votes (54-46 Bernie) and 7k Provos.

S.LO.- 8k votes- 56-44 Bernie) and 4.6k Provos.

Also minor numbers from Marin (3.5k 37-63 Hillary), Shasta (3.4k  59-41 Bernie), Tehama (1.7k 54-46 Bernie), as well as some major gains for Bernie in small rural NorCal counties *Del Norte, Amador, Colusa, Sutter (*), Tuolumne, and Yuba) as well as Kings Co. in the Central Valley.

[NOVA Green]

So now that late VbMs are kicking in, it looks quite possible that Bernie will perform better in Metro LA than the Bay Area, contrary to all conventional wisdom.

SoCal has been much slower to report than the Bay Area, and LA County has a ton of votes. (Estimated 620k ballots heavily Dem), including 250k Provisionals and additionally trending in OC, Riverside, and San Bernadino indicates that late VbM ballots are likely trending Bernie, and that although Hillary is performing better with wealthier Democrats, she has had a major drop in support in working-class Latino precincts within LA County.

Alameda County might well flip with the Provo vote, and SF, Santa Clara, Contra Costa, Solano and Santa Clara will tighten, but with the same-day and early VbMs it is much more difficult to see dramatic changes in overall regional vote percentages than in LA/OC and Inland Empire....

Bernie appears to have won Long Beach, including majority Latino and African-American precincts in North Long Beach, as well as working class neighborhoods near San Pedro (Long live the ILWU!).

One of the more interesting late VbM data sets released today is a huge late VbM Bernie margin in 32%+ Latino counties where increasingly people are doing a 1-2 hour commute each way to work jobs in the Bay Area or the "Sac" just in order to be able to afford a starter home.

[Ebsy]

Seems like there is about 0 chance of Sanders significantly closing the gap with Clinton.

[NOVA Green]

Seems like there is about 0 chance of Sanders significantly closing the gap with Clinton.

Define significant.... meaning that it goes to a 10% gap or a 5% gap???

Realistically, it doesn't appear likely to drop to low single digits, however provisionals look quite likely to break heavily for Sanders and late vote-by-mails are starting to hit in Bay Area counties and break much more heavily for Sanders than the early VbMs....

I still think that the margins could well drop from +12 to +6 Hillary once all of the votes come in...

[Eraserhead]

Seems like there is about 0 chance of Sanders significantly closing the gap with Clinton.

I think you're definitely jumping the gun a little, there's still so much to count.

[Ebsy]

Seems like there is about 0 chance of Sanders significantly closing the gap with Clinton.

I think you're definitely jumping the gun a little, there's still so much to count.

Some people on this forum seem to have a bit of an obsession with vote by mail counting that doesn't change much of anything. I'm rather glad most states haven't moved to the system.

[Desroko]

Seems like there is about 0 chance of Sanders significantly closing the gap with Clinton.

I think you're definitely jumping the gun a little, there's still so much to count.

Some people on this forum seem to have a bit of an obsession with vote by mail counting that doesn't change much of anything. I'm rather glad most states haven't moved to the system.

If we're very generous and suppose that 1.8m of the ~2.4m remaining are valid Democratic ballots, then Sanders would need to win those 53-47 to reach the 6 digit margin that someone thought was plausible.

Instead he's actually lostevery batch of results that's been released so far, by nearly the same margin as he lost the entire state. And most of the unprocessed results are vote by mail, which favored Clinton. And most of those are from counties that Clinton won easily, like LA, San Diego, Orange, Sac, Alameda, and Contra Costa. And none of the Sanders-leaning provisionals have even been found invalid yet, when historically they have a 10-15% spoilage rate.

[Desroko]

Seems like there is about 0 chance of Sanders significantly closing the gap with Clinton.

I think you're definitely jumping the gun a little, there's still so much to count.

Some people on this forum seem to have a bit of an obsession with vote by mail counting that doesn't change much of anything. I'm rather glad most states haven't moved to the system.

If we're very generous and suppose that 1.8m of the ~2.4m remaining are valid Democratic ballots, then Sanders would need to win those 53-47 to reach the 6 digit margin that someone thought was plausible.

Instead he's actually lostevery batch of results that's been released so far, by nearly the same margin as he lost the entire state. And most of the unprocessed results are vote by mail, which favored Clinton. And most of those are from counties that Clinton won easily, like LA, San Diego, Orange, Sac, and Riverside. And none of the Sanders-leaning provisionals have even been found invalid yet, when historically they have a 10-15% spoilage rate.

[Eraserhead]

Seems like there is about 0 chance of Sanders significantly closing the gap with Clinton.

I think you're definitely jumping the gun a little, there's still so much to count.

Some people on this forum seem to have a bit of an obsession with vote by mail counting that doesn't change much of anything. I'm rather glad most states haven't moved to the system.

Well yeah, we're a forum of political geeks, of course some of us are interested in what the final margin in these races turn out to be.

Plus, corny as it may sound, every vote deserves to be counted.

[DINGO Joe]

Wish every county web site was as clean and informative as the San Francisco one

http://www.sfelections.org/results/20160607/#english_summary

Gives who the nonpartisan voters took ballots for.  Gives totals for write-ins and Undervotes by party. 

Undervotes and write-ins were quite high for all 3rd parties, but people taking AIP ballots are clearly in a world all their own.  More than half of the votes were write-ins and on top of that 1/3 didn't even vote for any candidate on the Presidential level.  Things were quite similar in Sacramento county.

The Undervote was quite high in the Republican primary in SF too (8%) and in Sacramento it was more than 5% (vs 2% in the Dem primary).  Maybe other major counties provide this info in final reports, but none of the major SoCal counties have it with their current reporting.

[NOVA Green]

Now that 35/58 counties in California have started processing the late Vote-by-Mail ballots, we have some interesting data points to help understand trends in the largest chunk of outstanding votes and how this might play out and impact on margins.

Firstly, overall election day numbers from 6/9 AM when LA and Monterey County provided their final 100% precinct numbers total votes (1.5 Mil- 1.94 Mil Bernie- Hillary and 43.6%-56.5% Hillary) to date there have been an additional 400k VbMs counted breaking 45-55 Hillary, compared to the election day 43-57 margin in those same counties.

Of the (35) counties that have counted late VbMs, Bernie is winning the late VbM vote in 17/35 and of those he only won (7) on election day and in 28/35 "Late VbM counties" there has been a swing towards Bernie in the late votes compared to election day results.

Of the (23) counties that have not updated results since election day, there were ~420k election day votes counted (49-51 Hillary) and for the most part are generally smaller population centers including a mix of heavily Bernie counties (Santa Cruz, Humboldt, Butte) and heavily Hillary counties (San Joaquin and Kern).

So what trends are we seeing throughout the various regions of California?

1.) Bay Area---- Almost 45% of 420k late VbMs counted are coming from the Bay Area, and are currently running 45-55 Hillary compared to election day numbers of 42-58 Hillary. This trend is especially pronounced in the two counties that have counted a significant chunk of late VbM ballots. San Francisco was 44-56 Hillary on election day and total margins are now 45-55. Santa Clara was 39-61 Hillary on election day and total margins are now 41-59. Contra Costa County as 40-60 Hillary on election day and is now 41-59 Hillary. There also appears to be a trend in between Late VbMs that were received in the mail earlier with Late VbMs that were postmarked election day, since those three counties have been posting regularly where the late VbMs counted first on 6/9 were 43-57 Hillary and those counted on 6/10 were 48-52 Hillary. This will be an interesting trend to watch, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Bernie take a late VbM lead in Alameda that has had only one small update of 20k (48-52 Hillary) compared to election day 46-54 Hillary. Considering that there are 110k VbMs outstanding and 42k Provisionals in a heavily Democratic County this could move to a toss-up category if "Wave 2" VbMs follow the pattern we have seen in SF, Santa Clara, and Contra Costa. Similarly, Marin and San Mateo that heavily supported Hillary have only one Late VbM dump with small trending towards Hillary compared to election day results. Will "Wave 2" late VbMs remain static or will there be shifts?

2.) Rural/ Smaller population Centers in NorCal and Sierra Nevadas. Here is where we are seeing the single largest shift in margins from same-day and early VbMs with all of these counties having a net Late VbM win for Bernie, and in most cases a significant swing in total % margins. Not a ton of major pop centers, but is still relevant both for map geeks out there that have made county predictions, where we could well see 3-4 counties flip over the next few weeks, as well as a decent net vote gain for Bernie when places like Butte and Humboldt start reporting late VbM numbers.

3.) Central Coast. Here is where we have been the most dramatic shifts from election day numbers in SLO, Santa Barbara, and Ventura, with significant VbM wins and overall margin swings towards Bernie. If this trend continues this could well indicate significant shifts in SC, Monterey counties that haven't yet reported any Late VbMs and Ventura continuing to tighten. Also, it could well be an indicator of a flip in Yolo County, since it is likely that younger "same-day" vote-by-mail ballots in counties with major universities are breaking heavily Bernie.

4.) Central Valley Not tons of data to work with (Since most counties, including several major counties (San Joaquin and Kern) have not reported any updates, however of the (5) that have election day numbers (120k Dem votes) were 41-59 Hillary and current totals (150k votes) are 42-58 Hillary with Late VbMs only 46-54 Hillary. If these patterns hold when Wave 2 late VbMs kick in there is a good chance that the Central Valley will be the region that swings most heavily against Hillary from '08 to '16.

5.) Sacramento Not too much to say yet. Election results were 43-57 Hillary, but only 16k "Late" VbMs were added, so will need to watch closely to see if VbMs posted the day before or of the election start to move on way or another.

6.) SoCal- Again very limited data, but since 55% of Dem ballots to date within the giant sprawling area that is SoCal, obviously is key to whatever the final margins will be in Cali. SoCal was 43-57 Clinton on election day and currently are 42-58 Clinton. The "Big Enchilada" aka LA County did one small "Late VbM" dump of 40k but considering what we have seen in the Bay Area, where there appears to be a major difference between VbMs mailed in 2-3 days before the election versus "day before" or "same-day" mail ins, it doesn't really give us an idea of how late VbMs will trend, of which there are currently a total of 340k outstanding as well as 250k Provisionals, both of which will likely be heavily Democratic Party ballots. OC has added an additional 25k votes since election day that are running 46-54 Hillary with 145k total VbMs (for all parties) yet to be counted. The most intersting item is that the "Wave 2" "Late VbMs are starting to trend Bernie 52-48, so I expect not only Hillary margins to drop, but also a drop in Net Vote numbers from OC. Riverside had one small "Wave 1" Late vote drop, so like LA county will need to see how late VbMs roll with an estimated 92k Total outstanding. San Bernadino had one "Late VbM dump" of 20k votes (46-54 Hillary) so again not much data to work on, but if this trend continues of the 58k Late VbMs outstanding we could also well see a major shift with "Wave 2" VbMs. San Diego County has dumped an additional 19k votes since election day in two returns and unlike anywhere else in the State has actually seen a net decrease in "Late VbMs", however there are still an estimated 200k VbMs to be counted.

Key Questions:

1.) Will "Day before" and "Same Day" VbM ballots (Wave 2) start to trend Bernie in SoCal, as they have in the Bay Area, in which case the race will tighten significantly to single digit margins? The little data we have indicates this might well be the case in OC and San Bernadino. LA County is still a giant question mark because of the sheer number of ballots outstanding (620k), including 240k Provisionals. San Diego County initially looks like an outliar, however like most urban counties in California, outside of the Bay Area, has been extremely slow to even dump "Wave 1" VbM ballots.

2.) Could SF and Alameda flip once all the votes are counted? Both are overwhelmingly Democratic counties, and it appears that "Wave 2" Late VbM ballots are trending Bernie, and we can assume that the Provisional votes are going to be overwhelmingly Democratic and once we start seeing the final late VbMs it is entirely possible.

3.) WTF is going on in the Central Valley? Hillary's best region in '08 versus Obama, but late VbMs moving heavily against her. Combine that with a heavily young and Latino new electorate, I wouldn't be surprised to see a 40-60 Hillary '08 win shrink to a 45-55 Hillary win.

4.) NorCal and Sierra Nevada Rurals- I always expected this part of the state to swing heavily against Hillary in '16 based upon patterns seen in similar parts of Oregon, as well as a huge Edwards vote back in Feb '08. Can Hillary hold onto the Obama base in areas like this, that are heavily white and working-class, that she won in the '08 primaries, in a GE vs Trump?


Anyways, thought I would share the Cali Dem primary data that I've been crunching since election day, since it is a state that has a bizarre hybrid system of Early Vote-by-Mail, Same Day voting, Late vote-by-mails (that seem to be running two-tone just like South London in the late '70s/early '80s, and the "insurgent" provisional ballots that went through the roof this year among younger first-time voters, Working-Class Latinos that haven't always voted in the primaries, since Trump first started to open his mouth back in January and started winning elections.

Please contribute any insights, perspectives, critique, but my main goal isn't to promote any kind of agenda or goal, but rather dissect the updates that are currently available and potential trends as part of a Political-Science examination of the current data available to contribute to the overall body of knowledge.

[Mr. Morden]

You know what? Screw this. This board will just keep getting uglier the longer this lasts. I'm staying out of here until Sanders concedes, and I'd like to hope that things calm down after that.

Looks like this promise didn't even last a day. 

[Gass3268]

Anybody have an updated map?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Anybody have an updated map?

Besides the one at California's SoS site?

[Gass3268]

Anybody have an updated map?

Besides the one at California's SoS site?

Did not know that existed. Thank you!

[NOVA Green]

Anybody have an updated map?

Ok... took a few minutes and was in a rush so no legend embed in the graphics... apologies for the ugliness on the outside of the maps, but had a few issues with Paint.Net and the maps i was using where Inyo and San Diego counties made things a little crazy.

So the first map basically shows the margins and calls out counties with no late VbM counted:

Dark Blue/Red= Bernie/Hillary +15%
Medium Blue/Purple= Bernie/Hillary +7.5%
Green/Yellow= Bernie/Hillary <7.5%
Dark Gray= Bernie Lead but not Vote-by-mails (VbM) counted
Light Gray= Hillary Lead but no Vote-by-Mails (VbM) counted

Second map shows margins as of earlier today using the same color coding...

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Anybody have an updated map?

Besides the one at California's SoS site?

Did not know that existed. Thank you!

It does take some time for them to update. Going to each county website would be more accurate, but with 58 counties, that would take some time.

[NOVA Green]

Anybody have an updated map?

Besides the one at California's SoS site?

Did not know that existed. Thank you!

It does take some time for them to update. Going to each county website would be more accurate, but with 58 counties, that would take some time.

Already done it.... the maps I posted are reflective of current county reports as of earlier today...

Been tracking numbers since election day on a spreadsheet, and with the possible exception of Santa Clara county that does an AM and PM update each day, it is extremely unlikely that the results will have changed in any of the other counties.

[NOVA Green]

Seems like there is about 0 chance of Sanders significantly closing the gap with Clinton.

I think you're definitely jumping the gun a little, there's still so much to count.

Some people on this forum seem to have a bit of an obsession with vote by mail counting that doesn't change much of anything. I'm rather glad most states haven't moved to the system.

Well yeah, we're a forum of political geeks, of course some of us are interested in what the final margin in these races turn out to be.

Plus, corny as it may sound, every vote deserves to be counted.

Speaking of which (Geek Mode), ever since I was 8 years old spent hours of time in the University library in my town writing down manually election returns and color coding county maps. When I was a teenager, I started to get into precinct returns and made regular visits to the State Election archives and manually wrote down election returns by precinct for Presidential, Senate, US Rep, and ballot initiatives in multiple binders and coded against precinct and city.

In High School in my AP-History Class I did a 1860 County level Presidential Map for my final project, and in college for a 300 level History Class did a 10 page paper on election returns in Chicago from '68-80 mapped against census data where the 1848 German-American immigrants started to play a major role in the development of a new coalition in one of the fastest growing cities in America and that time, that become (and still is) one of the largest cities in America.

Love political Geeks, and love this forum because it is a place where we can sit argue and debate, but regardless of political ideology and opinions, numbers and data provide an objective benchmark to rationally discuss, once we eliminate the smokescreen of the "3-day" political news cycle.

Thank God for the internet, that makes it so much easier!!!