Washington GOP caucus **results thread**

[Wisconsin+17]

I have to say that the Newt bounce tonight is exceptional.

[Wisconsin+17]

And that also answers my question too. Interesting.

[Wisconsin+17]

Man I wanna know if I'm right about Paul vs Santorum!

[Wisconsin+17]

Edit, CNN has the reverse, Paul up by 250 with not Skagit, Chelan, Douglas or Spokane.

[Wisconsin+17]

Still TCTC with King tipping for Paul.

See, this is exactly what I was saying. If Paul is going to win, he had to beat Santorum in King, not in the rest of the state. King will be the difference maker for him.

Santorum lost Spokane by 10 measly votes.

[Wisconsin+17]

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They were tied 19-all.

That's why I said that Santorum could not lose so long as he split King with Paul.

Really close to calling this with 50 percent of King out, for Paul.

[Wisconsin+17]

Well, 50 percent in, variance down to about 2 percent or so, double that would put Paul up by about half a percent.

That, given outstanding Pierce, swinging with Santorum, and with the only county outstanding...

Santorum might pick up another 250 votes, from Pierce and the county left.

Santorum will have to improve in Pierce to overcome the margin, but he wouldn't need much, and he'd need King to split.

If it were 400, it would be a call. 250, still TCTC.

[Wisconsin+17]

That's double Douglas. That's good news for Santorum. Add another 100 votes swing and he only needs to get within 3 of Paul in King, assuming that Peirce doesn't swing some more his way too.

[Wisconsin+17]

Well, it's always interesting to learn more about all the little parts of America that get very little coverage.

I've been to some of these places, but not eastern Washington or Spokane. Just on the pacific side of I-5

[Wisconsin+17]

With Gingrich as irrelevant.

[Wisconsin+17]

I'm not so sure why people are so surprised.

Look at the pre-Colorado predictions. Like I said at the start - my chart had WA as strong Romney. I was shocked with the predictions that Santorum could take WA - just because of the demographics.

Like it was said earlier - WA is a coastal state in the west. Mitt is very strong in the west (+Mitt), strong in Obama states (WA isn't purple), and weak in midwest states, southern states and Red states.

WA is not a hard Romney call right from the beginning. I'm still struggling to understand the PPP polls with Santorum up by double digits in WA.

So, tonight is a victory for sanity if that means anything at all. It means that our essential analysis of the situation is correct, and should prevail on super tuesday. OH will determine the nomination.

A win in OH for Santorum over Romney means that he should get the nomination. A win by Romney means that he should get the nomination, as he'll have enough support with IL + OH, despite losing in MI with the delegate split.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Then Santorum stands in third, and he's still not showing well out west.

[Wisconsin+17]

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I call at double variance and variance is at about .5 percent. Paul leads Santorum by .445 points, so even with calling at variance it's still TCTC.

[Wisconsin+17]

The first one was 19-19 for Paul/Santorum so it a draw. Still two dumps left.

[Wisconsin+17]

Since it would be unseemly to wait until after all the results are in, I'm calling it for Paul.

[Wisconsin+17]

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To put it in perspective.

Romney's been holding serve. MI was a loss as he was choked out of any delegate advantage.

WA was another Romney state that was up for grabs that he successfully defended. Super Tuesday is his first opportunity to do some damage to the conservatives on their home front.

Winning states you are supposed to win isn't really indicative of much - especially with his weak showing here, compared with AZ.

Had this been an AZ style blowout, sure. But he still only got 36 percent in WA. That's - really not a good showing for Romney. He's still very vulnerable, and if what we are seeing is any indication - still having trouble selling himself to voters.

So it's all going to come down to Super Tuesday where the South finally gets another chance to have a say, something it hasn't had since South Carolina.

[Wisconsin+17]

Heh, so Santorum gets him some delegates? That's good news. 5 delegates?

[Wisconsin+17]

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Given the states, and the delegate counts - Santorum needs Ohio. Romney wins if he can pick up IL plus one other rust belt state. MI was a push, so that doesn't help him.

Santorum should be able to hold on if he can win in Ohio. Ohio is the toughest rust belt state for him to win, which is why he's actually in decent shape so far. But he needs OH, TN + OK on tuesday.

Newt needs GA.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Just plain ol' variance at this point. Congrats to the Paul folks.

[Wisconsin+17]

It's been blindingly obvious to everyone other than Newt's team it seems.

[Wisconsin+17]

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I've heard that from some of his supporters too - that Santorum can wait but this is Newt's last chance.

Didn't we do this with Dole? Electing somebody because 'it's their turn', is the worst rationale ever.

Technically - it's Romney's turn, being the best candidate not to win an election since he lost to McCain. Newt's not even next in line for anything - since this is his first and only so far election campaign.