Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015

[Gustaf]

Great thanks to both of you, gonna geek out a bit.

Fascinating how the class divide in Danish politics is essentially gone. Had no idea it was that extreme.

[politicus]

Fascinating how the class divide in Danish politics is essentially gone. Had no idea it was that extreme.

Well, the Rungsted results say otherwise.

I guess it is mostly true if you view class through traditional lenses and omit class as a cultural thing.

1) Private vs. public sector (which also includes a strong gender component) is more important than the worker/functionary divide. The private sector is blue and the public is red.

2) Income determines political  attitudes to redistribution. Note that part of the skilled workers have higher incomes than many functionaries (incl. some public sector academics).

3) If you define class a cultural thing and view an engineer with working class parents as working class etc. class explains a lot more.

...

We have two catch-all parties: Liberals, with a private sector (and Jutland) tilt and SD with a public sector tilt.

But the rest are - more or less - class based:

The Red Greens is an alliance between disadvantaged groups (incl. more workers than one might expect) and public sector employees in primarily the welfare sector. So the Red Greens is both an interest organization for poors and the ones who make a living from helping them.

DPP is a working class/cultural working class party + (mostly rural/small town) petit bourgeoisie. A small segment of old school National Conservative bourgeoisie has joined them, but it is a very limited group.

You then have four small white collar middle class parties: Liberal Alliance, Conservatives, Social Liberals and SPP. With the first two being mainly private sector and affluent and SPP being public sector and less so. SocLibs make good money as well and are the best educated.

I guess two of the three big parties not being class based makes it a non-class based system, but a least five of the eight parties have a clear class profile.

[politicus]

New YouGov poll has a big Blue Bloc advantage and a 95-80 seats distribution (93-82 with the Alternative in), but it is YouGov...

Red Bloc 46,7

The Alternative 1,9
Red Greens 9,5
SPP 5,2
SD 23,3
SocLib 6,8

Blue Bloc 53,3 (52,4 without KD)

Conservatives 4,0
Liberal Alliance 6,7
Liberals 19,8
DPP 21,9
KD 0,9

[politicus]

IMO the most likely Red Bloc win at the moment seems to be 49% win with Blue Bloc at 49,5 and around 1,5% wasted on KD + Lars Hedegaard et al, their Northern Atlantic 3-1 or 4-0 advantage would then give the last seats (at least the Siumut/Faroese SD seats are reliable allies).

Left wing 15%
SD 26%
SocLibs 6%
Alternative 2%

If you compare the YouGov with that:

Left wing is at 14,7, so fine. SocLib at 6,8, which is solid and the Alternative is howering right around the threshold, but if SD is 2,7% below what should be their target that is useless.

Still, I see no real reason DPP should be at 22% now, and they tend to overestimate DPP. So likely just YouGov being YouGov.

The left wing parties seems very stable at around 15% and they have a limited capacity to capture blue voters, and I doubt Radikale will avoid a serious loss - they simply overperformed last time. Hanging on to 7% would be a moral victory, but 6% seems more likely in the end. So SD needs to do most of the hard work and go to around 26% and the Alternative needs to make it.

[politicus]

Wilke poll conducted 9.14, so partly after the April 12 promotion of HTS.

Red Bloc 46,9 vs. Blue Bloc 53,1 = 81/94. Wilke polls for conservative Jyllands-Posten and their polls are never overly positive for the left, still a better pollster than YouGov. Their DPP numbers seems more realistic. No possibilty of answering Others.

Alternative 1,5
Red Greens 7,9
SPP 6,1
SD 24,3
SocLib 7,1

KD 0,4
DPP 19,3
Liberals 22,6
Conservatives 4,0
Liberal Alliance 6,8

Comparing it to my Red Bloc minimum route to victory:

Left wing 14,0 (1% too low)
Alternative 1,5 (0,5% missing)
SD 24,3 (roughly 1,5% too low)
SocLib 7,1 (1% above)

Close - the lack of an Other category could skew it up in a year with many independents (some attached to micro parties) trying their luck - incl. Hedegaard.

Two parties are declining more than the statistical uncertainty might explain- SPP,  which was otherwise recovering, and the Conservatives.

[politicus]

SPP launching new tax plan, that will reduce taxes for working people and finance it via a tax on financial transactions.

This makes them the only Red Bloc party promising lower income taxes and will irritate SD that tries telling people that all additional tax cuts will undermine welfare.

Also proposing increased education opportunities forpeople on unemployment benefits.

SocLibs might relaunch their old increase in property taxes to cut income taxes proposal when the campaign officially starts. I doubt they will let SPP remain the only tax-cutters in the bloc.

EDIT: The finance tax is the European one, that seems never to be implemtend, so they are criticized for not having proper financing. Pia Olsen Dyhr claims she has faith in Merkel being able to make it a reality...

[politicus]

Liberal Alliance leader Anders Samuelsen now says Blue Bloc should form a four party majority government if they win..

A bit surprising. So far LA has refused to enter a government and said they would have more influence outside, but maybe they realize DPP will be too strong if they remain in a free role.

Conservative leader Pape-Poulsen is positive. The Liberals refuse to consider combinations before the election is won.

While DPP leader Kristian Thuelsen-Dahl calls it "an utterly and totally unrealistic idea."

Given the difference between DPP and LA on fiscal policy that is probably true, but will be interesting to see how the four parties will solve their differences if they win.

The elephant in the room in Danish politics is that SD-DPP would be by far the most logical coalition - if you only counted how many policy positions they agree on and not image/signal value and emotions.

(well, among the options likely to have enough seats)

DPP wants a Liberal minority government they can pressure and the Liberals have so far seemed to prefer going solo a well, but if they go any lower in the polls they may reconsider.

Former Conservative leader Lars Barfoed wanted to remain outside government to profile the party, but Pape seems to be more interested in getting a portfolio - maybe he reckon it will be his only chance

[politicus]

Samuelsen says he is inspired by the Alliance in Sweden and how they "drew up a common bourgeois reform program, implemented it mercilessly, and then even won the (next) election". But then again the Alliance did not include a party like the DPP.

In LOL department the Copenhagen Christian Democrats have offered Klaus Riskær a candidature, but their leadership say they will block him. Third party Riskær tries (Cons, Alternative, KD).

[Gustaf]

Fascinating how the class divide in Danish politics is essentially gone. Had no idea it was that extreme.

Well, the Rungsted results say otherwise.

I guess it is mostly true if you view class through traditional lenses and omit class as a cultural thing.

1) Private vs. public sector (which also includes a strong gender component) is more important than the worker/functionary divide. The private sector is blue and the public is red.

2) Income determines political  attitudes to redistribution. Note that part of the skilled workers have higher incomes than many functionaries (incl. some public sector academics).

3) If you define class a cultural thing and view an engineer with working class parents as working class etc. class explains a lot more.

...

We have two catch-all parties: Liberals, with a private sector (and Jutland) tilt and SD with a public sector tilt.

But the rest are - more or less - class based:

The Red Greens is an alliance between disadvantaged groups (incl. more workers than one might expect) and public sector employees in primarily the welfare sector. So the Red Greens is both an interest organization for poors and the ones who make a living from helping them.

DPP is a working class/cultural working class party + (mostly rural/small town) petit bourgeoisie. A small segment of old school National Conservative bourgeoisie has joined them, but it is a very limited group.

You then have four small white collar middle class parties: Liberal Alliance, Conservatives, Social Liberals and SPP. With the first two being mainly private sector and affluent and SPP being public sector and less so. SocLibs make good money as well and are the best educated.

I guess two of the three big parties not being class based makes it a non-class based system, but a least five of the eight parties have a clear class profile.

I meant more on a bloc basis - like the blue bloc getting a higher share of the working class vote than the upper class vote (under the definitions used there). I'm aware of the points you bring up about new class structures but that hasn't had much impact in other countries I'm aware of, so I was still surprised.

[politicus]

I meant more on a bloc basis - like the blue bloc getting a higher share of the working class vote than the upper class vote (under the definitions used there). I'm aware of the points you bring up about new class structures but that hasn't had much impact in other countries I'm aware of, so I was still surprised.

"Foreigner" policy (immigration and integration) lay behind Systemskiftet (the systemic change) - as some - a bit hyperbolic - has called the election in 2001 (and its consequences in the cultural climate). Working class voters simply left SD in droves in the mid to late 90s because they fundamentally couldn't accept their "soft" approach on integration and crime.

Workers support for SD + left wing combined:

1966: 81%
2001 election: 42%
2013 (last poll with social groups I have seen): 32%
 
So it isn't a recent phenomenon. The hunt for the illusive Blue Bjarne (well paid, skilled labourer with preference for tough immigration and law and order policies) has haunted SD for years, but Bjarne and his mates still vote DPP/Liberal (and SD should probably just accept it and move on).

Today working class support for Blue Bloc is about much more than integration and crime. It is also about cultural issues, high taxes because of "a bloated public sector filled with useless academics" and a feeling that it doesn't pay to work and that working people are not respected.

Immigration is not just about integration problems and anti social behaviour from (young male) "Muslims" in their neighbourhoods, but a threat to wages from employers hiring and underpaying Eastern Europeans undermining the living standard of workers.

[politicus]

For what its worth June 9 is the date most Danish punters believe the election will be held. 20% are betting on the first Tuesday after Constitution Day, so for once I am in agreement with the plurality.

[politicus]

DPP wants to roll back the Green Conversion-policy and stop public funding of green tech development by scrapping the PSO-fee on electricity (earmarked to aid conversion to renewable energy) in order to make it cheaper for consumers and companies.

They say that Danish wind mill industry is already an export success, so no need to expand the home market "artificially", so they only want to put up one of the big sea based wind mill parks "as a showcase".

- "Denmark's CO2 emissions make up such a small part of the global that it makes no difference what Denmark is doing."

Partly true, but there is setting a good example/being an inspiration to policy makers in other countries + energy technology can be exported to bigger countries and Danish companies have made a handsome profit doing just that, so even from a purely economic POV this doesn't make sense.

With a big DPP and the Conservatives marginalized (and fairly populist anyway) a Blue Bloc  government will be a lot more anti-green than previous centre-right governments. The Liberals and LA more or less agree with DPP.

Their energy spokesperson is Mikkel Dencker, evangelical fundi and married to their family spokesperson Mette Dencker, who has the dubious "honour" of being by far the most homophobic MP in Denmark. So the Denckers are at the top of my list of HPs in Danish politics.  

[politicus]

Riskær has withdrawn his candidature for KD. Says it would be "too untrustworthy" if he signed a declaration that he is against free abortion and that "people know how I have lived my life".

Wonder if he would have been so principled if the KD leadership didn't say they would block him ...

Also states that he will not "actively" seek nomination for another party. Too bad, fourth time might be a charm, Klaus

The Alternative is running a former hashis dealer and free cannabis activist. So not everyone with a criminal record is blocked from running for them.

Elbæk says he is personally in favour of legalizing cannabis "to reduce the profits from organized crime", but it is not in the party platform.

[politicus]

Regarding YouGov they are the only pollster that has had DPP as the biggest party in the last two months (no less than four times), so I think its clear they have a DPP bias.

[politicus]

Former PM Poul Nyrup Rasmussen is the "secret guest" at SPPs annual conference where he has delivered a few veiled attacks on Thorning. Nyrup suggests that Red Bloc should unite in support of the European tax on financial transactins (Danish SDs are the only SDs in Western Europe not supporting this #) and says the profit can easily support better cutting the work hours it takes to regain unemployment benefits 1 year of full time employment to 6 months (the government clinging to 6 months despite opposition from unions and SD left wingers). Not the first time Nyrup has taken a jab at his successor. Last time was when he spoke out against privatizing Dong Energy as well. He was on the right wing of his party in the 90s, but clearly to the left of Thorning and Corydon.

# Irish Labour do (AFAIK), but I consider them Social Liberals, not SDs.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Former PM Poul Nyrup Rasmussen is the "secret guest" at SPPs annual conference where he has delivered a few veiled attacks on Thorning. Nyrup suggests that Red Bloc should unite in support of the European tax on financial transactins (Danish SDs are the only SDs in Western Europe not supporting this #) and says the profit can easily support better cutting the work hours it takes to regain unemployment benefits 1 year of full time employment to 6 months (the government clinging to 6 months despite opposition from unions and SD left wingers). Not the first time Nyrup has taken a jab at his successor. Last time was when he spoke out against privatizing Dong Energy as well. He was on the right wing of his party in the 90s, but clearly to the left of Thorning and Corydon.

# Irish Labour do (AFAIK), but I consider them Social Liberals, not SDs.

Clearly there's nothing Social Democratic left about the Danish SDs either.

[politicus]

Clearly there's nothing Social Democratic left about the Danish SDs either.

Well, Thorning and Corydon would say they defend the financial foundations of the welfare state and that trimming public expenditures was necessary to avoid a financial collapse (and even deeper cuts).

But otherwise the answer would very much depend on what part of the party you are talking about. There are three distinct factions among its MPs (called Coffee Clubs):

After the 2011 elections  the right wing in the so-called Breakfast Club numbered 18 MPs, while the left wing (with high frequency of union reps) ironically calls itself The Rust-knockers and number 8, you then had a centrist group called The Network with Nyrup's right hand and successor as Chairman (+ current Speaker of the Folketing) Mogens Lykketoft and party "crown princess" Mette Frederiksen as leading members numbered 16. Thorning and Corydon was at that time formally neutral (but obviously supportive of the right wing), Corydon has later joined the Breakfast Club and the same has one of the three SPP deserters who have joined SD, former chairman of the Communist Party of Denmark Ole Sohn (who has travelled a long way since he kissed Erich Honecker's cheeks).  Not sure about the two other SPP deserters Astrid Krag and Jesper Petersen, but the SPP "Kiddie Gang" (ex members of the party's Youth League, who were pseudo-SD so-called "Workerites" and on the  party's right wing) seems to go straight to the SD right wing (that is where the power is after all).

The Rust-Knockers are the remnants of the once strong Auken-wing from the 90s and early 00s (named after former chairman Svend Auken, whereas the Breakfast Club is descended from the rival Nyrup-wing, which used to be the right wing. But I think it is obvious that Nyrup would be in The Network if he was active today. So you got almost half the party being to the right of where Nyrup and Lykketoft where in the 90s and a marginalized left wing.

Rust-knockers and Networkers are pretty clearly within the modern Scandinavian SD tradition. The left wing of the party consider the Breakfast Club people to be "light blue". I guess it is a matter of where you draw the line.

Irish Labour would not (to my knowledge) have anyone as left wing as the people in the left wing and centrist wing of Danish SD and they make up more than half the MPs, so the party is more leftist as it includes genuine left wingers.

Identity wise a man like Lykketoft has said that he "considers himself a Social Democrat, which is identical to a Democratic Socialist in the Western European tradition." You would not find a prominent member of Irish Labour self identify in a similar manner.

[ObserverIE]

Former PM Poul Nyrup Rasmussen is the "secret guest" at SPPs annual conference where he has delivered a few veiled attacks on Thorning. Nyrup suggests that Red Bloc should unite in support of the European tax on financial transactins (Danish SDs are the only SDs in Western Europe not supporting this #) and says the profit can easily support better cutting the work hours it takes to regain unemployment benefits 1 year of full time employment to 6 months (the government clinging to 6 months despite opposition from unions and SD left wingers). Not the first time Nyrup has taken a jab at his successor. Last time was when he spoke out against privatizing Dong Energy as well. He was on the right wing of his party in the 90s, but clearly to the left of Thorning and Corydon.

# Irish Labour do (AFAIK), but I consider them Social Liberals, not SDs.

http://www.thejournal.ie/readme/financial-transaction-tax-nessa-childers-612203-Sep2012/

(Since driven out of the party but re-elected as an independent MEP.)

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No, they would use the term "social democrat" (although it tends to often be used in Irish domestic politics as a synonym for "social liberal" in any case) but it wouldn't mean very much. It can be used to describe more socially liberal FGers as well regardless of their economic stances.

[politicus]

Social Liberal leader Morten Østergaard has launched a series of proposals to secure the long term sustainability of Danish economy, that all makes it harder for SD.

The Social Liberals want to increase property taxes in order to cut income taxes, increase the pension age to 68 by 2025 (and generally try to secure the average Dane only spends 14,5 years in retirement - by increasing it gradually as people live longer) + they also want to increase/introduce user fees in the health sector.

So while SD tries to campaign on protecting welfare and safety ("the Denmark you know").  Østergaard is telling voters their housing costs will go up, they will have to pay to see a doctor (or that is how the media interpret it anyway) and work longer. Not exactly a friendly campaign strategy towards his coalition partner.

The Social Liberals also refuse to give even minor concessions on the unemployment benefit agreement they made with the centre-right parties before the last election (which gives SD major problems with voters, unions, Red Greens/SPP and their own left wing). On top of that Østergaad claims that "the centre-left is a dead and meaningless concept". Since the party can not jump to Blue Bloc with no "Liberal majority" (SocLibs, Libs, Cons and LA) even remotely likely this seems like a risky strategy.

In related news SPP chairman Pia Olsen Dyhr has just stated that SD should demand that the SocLibs help find a "red solution" on unemployment benefits or refuse to stay in coalition with them.

So while SD has had a pretty easy time so far, it looks like their Red Bloc partners are about to change that.

[politicus]

New Voxmeter poll has Red Bloc on 48,0 and Blue Bloc on 51,7 with a 84-91 distribution of the Danish seats, so 86-89 with the Alternative in + the current 4 red North Atlantic seats would give HTS a paper thin majority. Conservatives below 3%.

It is a typical DPP low/Liberals high poll.

Red Bloc

The Alternative 1,5
SD 25,5
SocLib 6,4
SPP 6,5
Red Greens 8,1


Blue Bloc

Cons 2,9
LA 5,7
Christian Democrats 0,7
DPP 18,2
Liberals 24,2

Others 0,3

[politicus]

It is one of those polls HTS would call the election on if she had a string of them.

Compared to my minimum win scenario:

SD 25,5 (0,5 below)
SocLib 6,4 (0,4 above)
The Alternative 1,5 (0,5 below)
Left wing 14,6 (0,4 below)

So very close (and all well within the margin of error, of course).

In Blue Bloc:

Liberals are higher than in a long time and DPP on the "low" 17-19 level quality posters have often had them.

LA + Con on 8,6 is unusually low for the Low Tax Brigade, so Conservatives might be losing a non-negligible amount of voters to the Liberals now - perhaps they are seen as too desperate.

Again, within the margin of error - still interesting though. If they start losing moderate voters to the Liberals they could get in trouble with the threshold.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The Soc Libs have been in coalition with the blue block before right? What's stopping them crossing the floor to prop up a right-wing government?

[Diouf]

The Soc Libs have been in coalition with the blue block before right? What's stopping them crossing the floor to prop up a right-wing government?

The answer is DF/DPP. The Soc Libs and DP are polar opposites on so many areas, EU, immigration, taxation, education, that it would be inconceivable with a government depending on/consisting of both of them. Their voters are as different as they can get in Denmark; DP's standard voter is the old working class/unemployed/pensioner man outside the big cities while the Soc Lib is the young woman with a higher education degree living in one of the big cities. They both hate each other with a vengeance; probably the two parties which despise each other the most.
No polls have shown anything resembling a centre-right majority, i.e. Liberals, Conservatives, Liberal Alliance and Soc Libs. The latest polling average gave them only 70 seats combined.

[politicus]

The Soc Libs have been in coalition with the blue block before right? What's stopping them crossing the floor to prop up a right-wing government?

The trouble in Danish politics is that the "natural" socio-economic blocs are:

SPP, SD, DPP vs. SocLib, Libs, Cons and LA

(with Red Greens and the Alternative having more ambitious goals for a transformation of society towards ecological sustainability and a steady state economy. Red Greens of course also more traditional Socialistic goals of communal ownership and economic democracy)

Since this is messed up by what we call value-politics (immigration being important, but certainly not the only aspect. Others being education, crime prevention and the environment - the latter being an increasingly important cleavage with the Conservatives going anti-green as well. So we get non-socioeconomic blocs, while socioeconomic issues are (of course) still at the centre of politics. The whole unemployment benefit debacle is a testament to that.

This is also why some young up-coming SD left wingers like Peter Hummelgård (trade union lawyer and coming MP) and Matthias Tesfaye (bricklayer, ex SPP workerite, ardent populist, author and with a half Ethiopian background) have suggested forming an alliance with DPP. Depending on the increasingly right wing Social Liberals blocks too much of what they want to accomplish. But DPP would need to moderate more on "foreigners" for that to be realistic (which they might). I think at present DPP would be willing to give in on green issues, but not law and order and immigration.

[politicus]

The Soc Libs have been in coalition with the blue block before right? What's stopping them crossing the floor to prop up a right-wing government?

II. The Social Liberals did support centre-right government dependent on the right wing populist Progress Party in the 80s and early 90s - and even entered one - and they might be willing to do so again if the context had been a similar one.

But the problem with DPP is its size and potential  for cooperating with the left on a number of issues - giving them much more leverage in negotiations with a centre-right government than the Progress Party ever had. It is simply too strong a party for the Social Liberals to be able to keep their influence under control.