The 100 States of America

[Antonio the Sixth]

Kentucky

The Eastern part of the state gets to keep the original name, being home to the eponymous Kentucky river. Like its Southern neighbor, this state is very much part of the Appalachian cultural sphere, and as such it is Titanium R and has been for a long time. Like its Southern neighbor, it only voted Democratic twice, in 1964 and 1976 (with Clinton coming very close in 1992). However, it's not quite as monolithically Republican as Franklin. It contains some ancestral areas of Democratic strength, especially in the coal mining area in the far East of the state, as well as a decently-sized urban area around Lexington, and Dem-trending Cincinnati suburbs. Still, the bulk of the state is deeply and ancestrally Republican - especially is Southern portion, which routinely gave Republicans >60% scores even in the Solid South days. Of course, nowadays, these regional differences are barely visible at the top of the ticket (the only county Hillary and Biden won was Fayette, home to Lexington). But they can still play a role in local politics, as seen in the most recent gubernatorial elections.

Capital: I guess keeping Frankfort would be reasonable. Ideally I'd like to move the capital a little to the East and South to better reflect the state's overall layout (say, Lexington or Richmond), but realistically it's probably not worth it.

House Seats (1963): 7
House Seats (2013): 6 (-1 in 2023)

VAP Demographics (2010): 92% White

PVI 2008: R+30
PVI 2012: R+34
PVI 2016: R+39
PVI 2020: R+38

Congressional Representation: I think Republicans could go for the kill here and draw a 6-0 (5-0 after redistricting) map. Reasonably, there should be a Dem-leaning Lexington-centered district, but it's probably not hard to crack. Obviously both Senators are Republicans as well.

Local Government: Much like its RL counterpart, KY's legislature probably flipped in 2016, but flipped hard when it did and now Democrats are reduced to a token presence in the legislature. As for the governorship, Bevin would have actually won reelection in this part of the state, winning it by 4 points. Although Beshear narrowly won it in 2023 (by 2 points), I doubt a Democrat would have without the benefit of incumbency. So we probably have a solid GOP trifecta here.


Jackson

Let's name the Western portion of the state, stretching a little awkwardly to encompass Louisville and its suburban ring, after a president who's no doubt fondly remembered around these parts and who negotiated the Jackson Purchase that gave it its shape.This is arguably the more conventionally "Southern" part of the state, albeit not nearly as much as neighboring Tennessee. Wallace won 21% there in 1968, better than his 15% in KY but a far cry from his 40% in TN. This is also somewhat more friendly turf for Democrats, owing both to Louisville but also to some ancestral Democratic strength in the rural parts of the state. Clinton carried it both times, and it came tantalizing close to reelecting Carter in 1980 as well. Still, trends have not been kind to Democrats here, and nowadays the state is safe R at the federal level - but as we've seen, there's some hope for Democrats locally.

Capital: Owensboro seems like a good pick.

House Seats (1963): 7
House Seats (2013): 6 (-1 in 2023)

VAP Demographics (2010): 84% White, 10% Black

PVI 2008: R+18
PVI 2012: R+19
PVI 2016: R+25
PVI 2020: R+23

Congressional Representation: Two R Senators, and Democrats probably get confined to a single House seat centered in Louisville.

Local Government: Beshear would have won JS by 4.5 points in 2019, and since his family is from this part of the state he may well still be its governor (his margin increased to 8 points in 2023). Of course, he would still have to contend with a Republican-dominated legislature, though somewhat less so than IRL (maybe 65-35 or 70-30 rather than 80-20).


And speaking of Beshear, his razor-thin election victory in 2019 provides the best case study of the two states' political geography:


Overall, the two states mirrored each other, with the KY giving Bevin a 4-point edge while the JS gave Beshear a 4.5-point one. The funny aspect of it is that, based on land area, you'd actually expect Beshear to have done better in the Eastern half, where he managed to resurrect ancestral Democratic strength in the Coal Country. This was more than counterbalanced by Bevin's overwhelming scores in the ancestrally Republican Southern part of the state. By contrast, Beshear only won a total of 4 counties in JS, but those were the counties that mattered. His almost 100k vote lead alone was able to counteract Bevin's 65k lead in the rest of the state. Of course, Beshear couldn't have won if he hadn't also kept Bevin's margin in the rural part of the state down to a manageable level around 10 to 20 points, something no Democratic presidential candidate would dream of achieving.

[Gass3268]

Do you have the 2023 Gov results for Kentucky and Jackson?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Do you have the 2023 Gov results for Kentucky and Jackson?

Beshear won Kentucky 51-49 and Jackson 54-46. Impressive performance in KY especially.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Louisiana

The Southeastern portion of the state, encompassing its densest and most anciently settled areas with cities such as New Orleans and Baton Rouge. With a substantial Black population and historic Democratic strength, this is one of those Southern states that are just Republican enough to be out of reach at the presidential level but vulnerable downballot. Its electoral history is like that of many Southern states, flipping between JFK, Goldwater, Wallace, Nixon, Carter and Reagan. Clinton did shockingly well there in 1996, winning the state by 13 points. Of course, since then the region's Republican trend has taken its toll. Gore managed to come within 2 points of winning the state, but 4 years later Kerry lost it by 8, and that's exactly where we find Biden's margin in 2020. Obama's 2008 performance seems to have been the Democrats' nadir, and since then the state seems to have stabilized right in the Likely R area.

Capital: Baton Rouge still works.

House Seats (1963): 7
House Seats (2013): 6

VAP Demographics (2010): 60% White, 31% Black

PVI 2008: R+21
PVI 2012: R+13
PVI 2016: R+12
PVI 2020: R+13

Congressional Representation: Based on population numbers, two Black-opportunity seats seem warranted, at least following the Supreme Court's recent jurisprudence. So the incumbent House delegation is probably 5R-1D but about to become 4R-2D, much like IRL. Of course the two Senators are Republicans.

Local Government: John Bel Edwards won the state by double digits both times, so I think he very likely would have been the governor until recently. Of course, this is still a Republican-leaning state, so chances are whoever succeeded him in 2023 is a Republican. Republicans also probably control the state legislature, although it's not completely out of the realm of possibility for Democrats to win a majority in one chamber.


Acadia

Luckily there's another fitting name for the Western bulk of the state, which encompasses the traditional Acandian or Cajun country. Overall, the main difference between the two is that the Acadia is more rural, lacking urban areas on the scale of New Orleans (although Shreveport in the Far North is worth a mention). In this day and age, this automatically translates into being a lot more Republican. Not even the significant Black population, nearly as high as in LA, is enough to provide Democrats much of an opening, suggesting that White voters here are about as right-wing as in MS. As with much of the South, this wasn't always the case, though: the state still voted for Clinton twice (and indeed in 1992 Clinton did better here than in LA, as did Carter in 1976). Still, the state's right-wing roots do run deep, with Goldwater winning 62% there in 1964, and Wallace winning 51%. At this point, it's probably one of of  a growing number states Democrats barely bother to compete in.

Capital: Alexandria, nice and central.

House Seats (1963): 7
House Seats (2013): 5

VAP Demographics (2010): 66% White, 29% Black

PVI 2008: R+32
PVI 2012: R+30
PVI 2016: R+33
PVI 2020: R+36

Congressional Representation: Two Republican Senators, and probably a 4R-1D House delegation (with a creatively-shaped VRA seat around the North of the state being required).

Local Government: JBE amazingly managed to win there by 3 points in 2015, but lost by 15 points in 2019, and either way it's not much of a guide since he and Vitter are both from LA. Barring another lightning strike, both the governorship and the State Legislature are safely in GOP hands.


Figured I'd include both 2015 and 2019, since there are significant differences in the voting patterns:


As noted previously, JBE's 3-point victory in Acadia is truly remarkable for a state that was already 30 points more Republican than the country back then: this is a Doug Jones-level overperformance. The 2015 map shows us what it would take to win a state like that, and clearly it involves running up the score in Shreveport and along a diagonal that goes through the Southeastern part of the state, along which we find the new state capital. In 2019, the state reverted to its default political leanings, giving Rispone a solid majority (although still about 18 points below PVI). By contrast, Louisiana barely shifted between those two races, largely owing to significant Democratic swings in New Orleans suburbs. In both cases, it would have been a complete blowout, which suggests Democrats could still find downballot success in the state going forward.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Incredible work. Let me know if you want me to make you any district maps.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

LA-SEN 2014 would have been an extremely close Cassidy win in the Eastern part in a runoff where Dems basically gave up btw. Perhaps actual Dem investment could have gotten Landrieu over the top.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Incredible work. Let me know if you want me to make you any district maps.

I'd be happy to see any you'd like to make!

LA-SEN 2014 would have been an extremely close Cassidy win in the Eastern part in a runoff where Dems basically gave up btw. Perhaps actual Dem investment could have gotten Landrieu over the top.

Oh, fascinating! I wasn't even thinking of that one, but you're right, she could have survived that year. Not sure what her chances would have been in 2020 though.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Incredible work. Let me know if you want me to make you any district maps.

I'd be happy to see any you'd like to make!

LA-SEN 2014 would have been an extremely close Cassidy win in the Eastern part in a runoff where Dems basically gave up btw. Perhaps actual Dem investment could have gotten Landrieu over the top.

Oh, fascinating! I wasn't even thinking of that one, but you're right, she could have survived that year. Not sure what her chances would have been in 2020 though.

Any places you'd have particular interest in?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Incredible work. Let me know if you want me to make you any district maps.

I'd be happy to see any you'd like to make!

LA-SEN 2014 would have been an extremely close Cassidy win in the Eastern part in a runoff where Dems basically gave up btw. Perhaps actual Dem investment could have gotten Landrieu over the top.

Oh, fascinating! I wasn't even thinking of that one, but you're right, she could have survived that year. Not sure what her chances would have been in 2020 though.

Any places you'd have particular interest in?

I don't have a particular place in mind right now, but if you go over my descriptions of each state's congressional delegation and find one where I have a high uncertainty about how it'd turn out, or where I've made assumptions you think I'm wrong, I'd be interested to see what possibilities you can come up with.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is the House intentionally much bigger in this TL?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is the House intentionally much bigger in this TL?

Yes, 800 seats total (although that includes DC and Puerto Rico's population).

[GAinDC]

Georgia

The Southern two thirds of the state. Compared to the original Georgia, this new state is much more rural, and more... well, Southern, culturally speaking. Unsurprisingly, it has one of the highest Black VAP shares, behind only MS and PT. Back when the White vote in the Deep South was less overwhelmingly Republican, this was enough to make it a reasonably competitive state, allowing Clinton to carry it twice. Its Republican trend has been pretty steady since 1996, however, and since 2000 its PVI has always been over R+10. With T***pism seemingly playing well in the rural South, this is unlikely to change anytime soon.

Capital: Macon

House Seats (1963) 9
House Seats (2013) 9

VAP Demographics: 60% White, 33% Black

PVI 2008: R+16
PVI 2012: R+14
PVI 2016: R+17

Congressional Representation: If Democrats couldn't win either of the last two Senate races in RL Georgia, they certainly wouldn't in this Georgia either. In the House, the VRA should reasonably require three districts with African-American majorities or strong pluralities. The other 6 are obviously Titanium-R.

Local Government: By the same token, if Kemp won the real GA in 2018, he would have won this GA easily (in fact, he won it by nearly 15 points). Similarly, Republicans in the legislature would probably not have felt compelled to re-gerrymander their maps to protect their majority in 2018. Under the current map, they hold 45 House seats out of the 63 or 64 that cover this state.


Chattahoochee

Conversely, this state encompasses the Atlanta metropolitan area, along with Georgia's Northern Appalachian tip. Must of RL Georgia's demographic boom originates from this part of the state, as Atlanta has grown to become one of America's largest economic and cultural hubs. While less Black than GA, CH is also less White, with ethnicities of more recent extraction like Hispanic and Asians are far more prevalent. It comes as no surprise that this urbanized, diverse and economically dynamic state has proven fertile grounds for Democrats in this political era. Hillary Clinton came tantalizingly close to winning it in 2016, missing the mark by less than half a point (the very Republican Appalachian North made all the difference for T***p). Historically, however, this is a stark reversal from the traditional pattern. With a few obvious anomalies (like 1964, where CH went for LBJ while the Deep-Southern GA supported Goldwater), CH was usually the more Republican of the two states - for example, Bill Clinton never managed to carry it. It was only in 2004 that the gap reversed itself - and even then, CH remained solidly Republican until 2016 came along. While Republicans should be nervous about this state going the same way as KG or even CP, it's not nearly there yet, and trends are not destiny.

Capital: Atlanta

House Seats (1963) 8
House Seats (2013) 16

VAP Demographics: 58% White, 27% Black

PVI 2008: R+10
PVI 2012: R+10
PVI 2016: R+3

Congressional Representation: I've assigned CH to classes 1 (2018) and 2 (2014). The latter is guaranteed to be in Republican hands (before you ask, no, Jim Martin would not have won there in 2008, not even in the first round). The former, however, would probably have given rise to one of the closest Senate races in the country, no doubt attracting a strong Democratic challenger and a ton of campaign money on both sides. It's hard to predict how such a race would have ultimately gone down, but the closest parallel we have is probably Arizona. Since CH is even more of a swing state than AZ at this point, I can see the Democrat pulling ahead there. As for the House, I fully expect Republicans to gerrymander the hell out of the district map, but I can't see them left with more than 10 seats after the 2018 blue wave, and possibly just 9.

Local Government: Abrams defeats Kemp! In this fictional state, at least. Winning by 5 points, she would even avoid a runoff. It's possibly that the local GOP might have run a stronger candidate than Kemp, but even then, I doubt it would have made a difference. In all likelihood (and setting aside massive butterflies), she would be the governor right now. Democrats would also have a decent chance of flipping at least one of the two legislative houses. Under the current (highly gerrymandered) House map, they come a few seats short of a majority. It's certainly possible that Republicans kept control of both houses, but a split legislature is also fairly plausible.

Very cool! How does Chattahoochee vote in 2020 and the 2021 runoffs?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is the House intentionally much bigger in this TL?

Yes, 800 seats total (although that includes DC and Puerto Rico's population).

I kind of wonder, what apportionment would look like if you kept 435 or had a number like 650. Though that's outside the scope of the main segment of this project in any case.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Very cool! How does Chattahoochee vote in 2020 and the 2021 runoffs?

Biden won Chattahoochee by 6.3 points (making it not just a flip but a PVI flip as well - it's now 2 points to the left of the country as a whole) and lost Georgia by 12.5 points. Meanwhile Warnock won CH by 8.5 points and lost GA by 11.4, widening the divide even more. I don't have Ossoff's race but I would assume he was slightly behind Warnock in both.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is the House intentionally much bigger in this TL?

Yes, 800 seats total (although that includes DC and Puerto Rico's population).

I kind of wonder, what apportionment would look like if you kept 435 or had a number like 650. Though that's outside the scope of the main segment of this project in any case.

Feel free to run your own calculations, if you're so inclined. The main upshot though is that with a 435-seat House you'll end up with the vast majority of states getting between 3 and 6 seats. The main reason I doubled the House's size is because I felt that that range was too low for population differences to be accurately reflected.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyway Texas is next! It's gonna take a little longer than the others, since it's 6 states instead of 2, but it should be ready in a day or two.