2014 Gubernatorial Races by CD

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Even if it is through a vote-split fluke, in' wow at Astorino winning NY-20. That district is typically even more Democratic than NY-25 (which I see Astorino narrowly lost, although his percent of the vote there was greater than in NY-20).

Ann Kirkpatrick and Krysten Sinema looked very impressive with this new perspective.

as does Peterson.

Graham also. I didn't include FL-02 here (because I want to do more FL districts first), but it swung 11% Republican: 52/45 Sink -> 50/46 Scott.

Sean Maloney won a 51/45 Astorino district.

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Despite most counties in the area swinging against him, Walker still carried WI-03.

WI-3 is gerrymandered to be safe Democratic, so it's quite impressive that Walker win it. Republicans should definitely compete here the next time there's an open seat, though Kind seems safe.

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Even if it is through a vote-split fluke, in' wow at Astorino winning NY-20. That district is typically even more Democratic than NY-25 (which I see Astorino narrowly lost, although his percent of the vote there was greater than in NY-20).

Actually even more amazing than this is Cuomo carrying NY-24, 47/45, even as Katko carried the same district 60/40. (The reverse happened in NY-20, where Astorino carried the district, 46/42, but Tonko won 59/37).

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Hey, Miles, you added OH to the map, but I'm not sure you ever posted a chart with the OH results -- or at least I can't find it.

And I wanna reiterate that this is very impressive work

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EXCELLENT work, Miles! This is going to take me a while to properly digest. I do want to note that Brown's popularity, where he ran ahead -- sometimes quite far ahead -- of congressional Democrats might've been a key component in some of their narrower victories. There are some interesting juxtapositions, which might be meaningful for Republican targeting in the future (Brown won Bera's district, typically thought of as only leaning Democratic, 56/44; he won McNerney's district, thought to be edging on safe, 55/45 (the same margin as Brownley's "competitive" district), and Costa's district, thought of as safe in all but the largest of waves, 54/46; Aguilar's was won just 52/48; Takano's district, thought to be safe, is just 54/46). It should be noted that, besides weird flukes in safe Democratic areas, the only Democratic congressman in a competitive district to run ahead of Brown was Raul Ruiz, who seems like he has a very bright future ahead of him.

Brown carried 2 House seats currently held by Republicans -- very similar, 52/48 margins in CD-10 and CD-21, which are held by Jeff Denham and David Valadao. They are the logical choices for Democratic offensives in California. Pickings are slim after that, but Democrats competed in CD-25 in 2012, which Kashkari carried 57/43. Better choices for their attention might be CDs 39 and 49, held by Ed Royce and Darrell Issa, which Kashkari carried just 55/45 -- but these are flippable only in a wave, and Royce and Issa are both very powerful Republican Congressman. Any Republican offensive should start with Aguilar's and Peters' districts, which are both 52/48 Brown (same margin as Denham and Valadao), and from then go on to Raul Ruiz's district (53/47 Brown, though Ruiz outperformed him), and then onward to competing with Jim Costa and Mark Takano, neither of whom featured prominently on Republican lists in 2014, while Democrats like Ami Bera and Lois Capps, who were targeted, are probably pretty safe.

This pattern is a big part of the explanation for why Democrats pulled off so many narrow House wins in 2014. Republicans ran top-tier candidates against less-vulnerable members of the delegation (Bera and Capps), so those won narrowly, but ran poorer candidates against more-vulnerable members like Jim Costa, leading to those barely winning as well.

Sorry if any of that was off-topic; just some spur-of-the-moment analysis after seeing your chart and maps. Once again, FANTASTIC work, Miles!