Since 1992, New York has consistently voted around 20 points to the left of the national as a whole:
2012: 28% (vs 4% nationally) [
Hurricane Sandy had an effect, however]
2008: 27% (vs 8% nationally)
2004: 18% (vs +2 nationally)
2000: 25% (vs 1% nationally)
1996: 29% (vs 9% nationally)
1992: 16% (vs 6% nationally)
In addition, Democrats hold a massive 2.7 million advantage in voter registration:
https://www.elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/enrollment/county/county_apr16.pdfTherefore, in the current environment, the Republican would need an historical landslide in which he or she gets 15-20% in the national popular vote. Even a Reagan 88', Nixon 72', or LBJ 64' landslide would be insufficient.
The problem is New York City -- too many immigrants, progressives, educated voters, single-mothers, and low-income individuals. Without NYC, New York would be like Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin.
