Rick Snyder 2016

[Mister Mets]

Governor of a big purple state with a business background?

I could see it. The "tough nerd" approach could work.

I don't think so. Snyder is much more skilled than Romney I believe.

Romney won a presidential primary, and got within four points of an incumbent President.

He's not exactly the paradigm of an unsuccessful politician.

[Mister Mets]

Governor of a big purple state with a business background?

Incorrect.

Michigan is a Democratic presidential base state.

Fair enough. I thought it was within five points of the popular vote, although it's actually closer to six. It's winnable for Republicans, but only in a very good cycle.

Technically, that suggests Snyder is even more impressive.

[Mister Mets]

With Snyder's worst result in the last 20 polls cited on RCP being a tie I don't think you could make the argument that he's not going to win reelection. People who may know more about Michigan politics can offer plausible arguments for why Schauer is competitive, but that's not the same as suggesting that Snyder should plan to have a lot of free time on his hands in half an year.

The political environment of 2014 is not the same as 2012, and it does seem that there's some wishful thinking from people who would prefer Mark Schauer in the Governor's mansion.