Lib Dem Breakthrough from the Right? (UK)

[Ben.]

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/libdems


This is very interesting indeed IMHO... I'm surprised that Oaten is so involved with this, I always saw him as on the left of the Party.

Moving in a more libertarian direction is certainly a good plan if they wish to replace the conservative Party at the next election and in the long term will help Labour, as their gains against the Labour Party have largely been part of an opportunistic drive to the left by Kennedy over Iraq and Public Services, so if they move in this rightward direction I can imagine that while they will make gains from the Conservatives they may begin (over the cause of the next parliament) to relinquish ground on the left to Labour.

If the likes of Law, Oaten and Hughes are able force this agenda on Kennedy (a former SDP’er and understandably someone who leans leftward on the issues) and sell it to moderate conservative voters and rightwing voters who see the Conservatives as hopeless then the Conservatives are in serious danger. Since Iraq Kennedy’s tagging to the left had given the Conservatives a modest reprieve but this is the shape of things then the Conservatives should be worried… it could be that in a few elections that the Liberal Democrats will break through… from the right, thankfully I doubt that the Conservative Party will ever be driven down to as low a level in terms of seats as was the Liberal Party after the 1935 General Election… things could be about to get very interesting in British politics.  

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've been hearing stuff like this for a while... doubt that the LibDem base (about 6% of the electorate) will complain tho'... they manage the unusual feat of being zealously partisan while not really believing in anything.

[Ben.]

I've been hearing stuff like this for a while... doubt that the LibDem base (about 6% of the electorate) will complain tho'... they manage the unusual feat of being zealously partisan while not really believing in anything.

Seems to me their gearing up to take on the Conservatives and carve out a place as one of the “Big Two” Party’s in UK politics… a Libertarian Right leaning Liberal Democratic Party against a Populist (Socially Right, Economically Left) Labour Party with the Conservatives reduced to a rump of between 60-100 seats and forced into a position of being some kind of Populist Conservative Party (the kind of Party that David Davis would be more than happy to lead ),  

Al, do you think that the Lib Dems are capable of this rightward shift and of displacing the Conservatives?

[Ben.]

How would this breakdown of the PV equal out in terms of seats (2001 totals in brackets)?

Labour 37% (40.7%)
Conservative 29% (31.7%)
Liberal Democrats 22% (18.3%)
UKIP 2% (n/a)
Others 9.7% (9.3%)

And would be the effect of such a result?  

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How would this breakdown of the PV equal out in terms of seats (2001 totals in brackets)?

Labour 37% (40.7%)
Conservative 29% (31.7%)
Liberal Democrats 22% (18.3%)
UKIP 2% (n/a)
Others 9.7% (9.3%)

And would be the effect of such a result?  

I may be wrong but...

Con gain from Lab:

Dorset South      
Braintree
Monmouth
Lancaster and Wyre        

LibDem gain from Lab:

Cardiff Central          
Oldham East and Saddleworth    

LibDem gain from Con:

Taunton
Orpington
Surrey South-West        
Dorset West              
Haltemprice and Howden  
Isle of Wight            
Eastbourne
Wells
Westmorland and the Lonsdale                            

[Ben.]

How would this breakdown of the PV equal out in terms of seats (2001 totals in brackets)?

Labour 37% (40.7%)
Conservative 29% (31.7%)
Liberal Democrats 22% (18.3%)
UKIP 2% (n/a)
Others 9.7% (9.3%)

And would be the effect of such a result?  

I may be wrong but...

Con gain from Lab:

Dorset South      
Braintree
Monmouth
Lancaster and Wyre        

LibDem gain from Lab:

Cardiff Central          
Oldham East and Saddleworth    

LibDem gain from Con:

Taunton
Orpington
Surrey South-West        
Dorset West              
Haltemprice and Howden  
Isle of Wight            
Eastbourne
Wells
Westmorland and the Lonsdale                            

How would it panout nationwide though... what sort of majority would it grant Labour? surley there would be more movment than those seats you mention?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How would this breakdown of the PV equal out in terms of seats (2001 totals in brackets)?

Labour 37% (40.7%)
Conservative 29% (31.7%)
Liberal Democrats 22% (18.3%)
UKIP 2% (n/a)
Others 9.7% (9.3%)

And would be the effect of such a result?  

I may be wrong but...

Con gain from Lab:

Dorset South      
Braintree
Monmouth
Lancaster and Wyre        

LibDem gain from Lab:

Cardiff Central          
Oldham East and Saddleworth    

LibDem gain from Con:

Taunton
Orpington
Surrey South-West        
Dorset West              
Haltemprice and Howden  
Isle of Wight            
Eastbourne
Wells
Westmorland and the Lonsdale                            

How would it panout nationwide though... what sort of majority would it grant Labour? surley there would be more movment than those seats you mention?

Aha... that's with uniform swing... however swings are never uniform. There are a lot of seats where the LibDems are a fringe party and they won't be getting many/any new voters in those... if they *did* increase to 22% most of the gains would be in areas they are already strong (the South West, the Marches, London-Suburbia and so on).

[English]

Haltemprice & Howden is not going LD. Trust me.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Haltemprice & Howden is not going LD. Trust me.

It would on a uniform swing... but as I've said swings are rarely uniform... I don't think that the LibDems will win back Oldham East and Saddleworth... because the brief LibDem control of Oldham council destroyed the LibDem name in Oldham (they REALLY ed up... worse than Sheffield if that's possible...)

[Ben.]

Haltemprice & Howden is not going LD. Trust me.

It would on a uniform swing... but as I've said swings are rarely uniform... I don't think that the LibDems will win back Oldham East and Saddleworth... because the brief LibDem control of Oldham council destroyed the LibDem name in Oldham (they REALLY f**cked up... worse than Sheffield if that's possible...)

I'd agree, I think Davis will weather this one out however Bottomley, Letwin and May could well not be so lucky...

Letwin will not be a huge loss for the Conservative Party though (he is greatly overestimated) but it will have a bad effect on Conservative Moral and if both May and Letwin go coupled with a strong UKIP showing, a third Labour landslide and the loss of a brace of Conservative Seats in the South and Southwest to the LibDems then the Conservative Party will once again be in dire straights... the thing is, a new leader won't really help at all... and if Oaten and Hughes get their way with this rightward shift in LibDem policy then the Tories really will be in trouble.

Another point to bear in mind with further ground be gained from the Conservatives and more Conservative Voters seeing the LibDems as the "Rightwing Party" the likes of Law, Hughes and Oaten could find themselves greatly strengthened within the Party and Hughes going on to replace Kennedy perhaps sometime in the next parliament...    

By the way have the Liberals voted for a new Party Chairman yet? And did Hughes beat Opik?

[English]

Letwin is one of the few Tories that I like! I think he'll be fine actually. The dodgy seats for the Tories are all the seats were Labour still polls a strong third. That gives scope for further increase in the LD vote due to Labour squeeze. Places like Taunton and Bridgwater are possible LD gains. Similarly I think tactical voting will start working against Labour this election in some seats, as it did in Chesterfield in 2001. Watch Cambridge!! LD gain!!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Letwin is one of the few Tories that I like! I think he'll be fine actually. The dodgy seats for the Tories are all the seats were Labour still polls a strong third. That gives scope for further increase in the LD vote due to Labour squeeze. Places like Taunton and Bridgwater are possible LD gains. Similarly I think tactical voting will start working against Labour this election in some seats, as it did in Chesterfield in 2001. Watch Cambridge!! LD gain!!

I know Dorset West very well, and Letwin is in big trouble (again)... he's seen as cold and aloof... if the LibDems pick someone who's very well known locally they'd pick up the seat easy enough.

What happend in Chesterfield was just bizarre... nowadays it's a mostly middle class (but of the progressive yuppy sort) commuter seat and Tony Benn was a *very* bad fit for the seat. So when he retired logic suggested that some fresh faced Blairite would become the Labour candidate and win with ease. However, Benn had purged the Chesterfield CLP of his "enemies" and they selected some old loony leftist dinosaur from the '80's. Who was also from London...

[English]

He he he!
Yes, I remember! Reg Race!
Must have been the worst candidate in the entire country. He's speech was disgusting too. Something along the lines of, the electorate are all thick and stupid and all deserve to die!
I've never seen such sour grapes in my entire life!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He he he!
Yes, I remember! Reg Race!
Must have been the worst candidate in the entire country. He's speech was disgusting too. Something along the lines of, the electorate are all thick and stupid and all deserve to die!
I've never seen such sour grapes in my entire life!

Worst. Candidate. Ever.

[English]

Typical bald old militant trade unionist. People like him give Labour a bad name!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Typical bald old militant trade unionist. People like him give Labour a bad name!

Come to think of it the Tory candidate in Ludlow was dire as well... a carpet bagging near fascist with a double barreled name who managed to lose a seat that the Tories had held (albeit by small majorities) since the 1900's at least...

[Ben.]

Watch Cambridge!! LD gain!!

Good LibDem Council in Cambridge (which in of its self is an oddity) but the Labour MP (I did some work for her) resigned as Hewitt's PPS over Iraq and is a good local MP and has held the seat since 1992... I think its far from certain that the Liberals will take the seat... added to this the Liberals are putting up the same candidate they did in 92.

[cwelsch]

Obviously I'd support this move and I think libertarian ideas tend to energize a country and an electorate.  My only concern is dumping the ex-SDPers and lefties for future ex-Tories and hyper-conservatives.

[Ben.]

Obviously I'd support this move and I think libertarian ideas tend to energize a country and an electorate.  My only concern is dumping the ex-SDPers and lefties for future ex-Tories and hyper-conservatives.

If the likes of Hughes, Oaten and Law (he is the real Big L-Libertarian and the Party’s most impressive and original thinker) push successfully for this shift in policy I could see ambitious younger conservatives defecting over the next decade or so, while at the same time many conservative voters who see the Conservative Party as hopeless could shift to the Liberal Party, seeing it as the credible party of the right.


The present strategy of the Liberal Leader Charles Kennedy (an SDP’er) of outflanking Labour to the Left will only work so long as Blair is leader, the Likelihood that either Gordon Brown or someone like Peter Hain would cloak “third way” polices” in “leftwing language” (which Blair is reluctant to do) and by so doing would appease and win back many on the left would leave the Liberals “high and dry” and would force them in a belated move to the right.


If the Liberal Democrats begin a move to the right and adopt these fairly interesting and radical polices they would be able over a period of time (say between eight and fifteen years) to displace the Conservative Party as the Party of the right. They certainly would have to relinquish ground to the left which has served them well in recent by-elections such as those in Leicester South and Brent East and such seats might well be regained by Labour over time however the dividends to be gained at the expense of the Conservatives and in suburban and marginal Labour seats would far out way this possible loss.      

If after the next election the Conservatives have seen the Likes of May and Letwin lose their seats to the Liberal Democrats as well as between 6 and 16 other Conservative MPs lose their seats to Liberal Candidates then it will probably throw the Conservative Party into turmoil once again. Howard will no doubt try and hang on however by the end of 2005 he will have to go and the following leadership election could prove to be very divisive with the Likes of David Davis (Hard Right Populist), Liam Fox (Howard Loyalist and fairly typical Conservatives), Damien Green (The Left “wet” wing of the Party)… if either Davis or Fox win (I’d favour Fox as Davis has a reputation as a plotter or at least his supporters do ) then its possible that a handful of socially liberal Tory MPs such as John Bercow, Alan Duncan, Francis Maude etc… could defect to the newly, overtly rightward leaning Liberal Party.

If this rightward shift occurs it is also very possible that Kennedy would chose to retire some time in the next parliament and would be replaced by someone such as Hughes or Oaten.

I’ve said it before if this is pulled off things could be very interesting indeed              

[Ben.]

All hell seems to be breaking out after the publication of the “Orange Book” which was authored by many of the leading figures from the right of the Liberal Democratic Party and “Young Turks” including its leading economic brains Vince Cable and David Laws as well as its Home Affairs spokesperson Mark Oaten and its local government spokesperson Ed Davey.

Recently elected Liberal Democratic President Simon Hughes, has made a cloaked attacked on the modernises, while a Liberal Peer has called for David Laws to resign from the front bench and Charles Kennedy has had to distance himself somewhat from the publication despite writing a forward to it!  

Well the Liberal Conference should be interesting…

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ed Davey is an ignorant prick (example: he seems unaware that the Labour Party did not exist before 1900)... I really, really hate the guy... depressing to think that he's technically got the safest LibDem seat in the U.K isn't it?

[Ben.]

Ed Davey is an ignorant prick (example: he seems unaware that the Labour Party did not exist before 1900)... I really, really hate the guy... depressing to think that he's technically got the safest LibDem seat in the U.K isn't it?

He also heckled Liam Byrn in Brum HH along with respect supporters crying "David Kelly, David Kelly"... burke!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ed Davey is an ignorant prick (example: he seems unaware that the Labour Party did not exist before 1900)... I really, really hate the guy... depressing to think that he's technically got the safest LibDem seat in the U.K isn't it?

He also heckled Liam Byrn in Brum HH along with respect supporters crying "David Kelly, David Kelly"... burke!

Doesn't suprise me...
What think you of Smith resigning?

[Ben.]

Ed Davey is an ignorant prick (example: he seems unaware that the Labour Party did not exist before 1900)... I really, really hate the guy... depressing to think that he's technically got the safest LibDem seat in the U.K isn't it?

He also heckled Liam Byrn in Brum HH along with respect supporters crying "David Kelly, David Kelly"... burke!

Doesn't suprise me...
What think you of Smith resigning?

Smith’s seat could be targeted by the LibDems, that said he’s got a strong base in the constituency so he should be fine, as for the reason he left, I think it was just that he was tired with the job that said I wonder why he resigned rather than simply waiting to be moved…

My recommendations would be for McCartney to be moved as soon as possible and replaced with Milburn and Hain as Co-Party Chairmen, at the same time David Miliband should get the Pensions brief, Hoon should be moved somewhere (Lords? or Constitutional office), Reid should go to defence, Benn should go to Health and Bradshaw or Cooper should go to international development… IMHO that would be a good line up for the general election, there is also a rumour that Straw and Blair are not getting along very well at the moment, but I doubt that Straw would be moved, at the same time I think its really imperative to get rid of McCartney.