The Wisconsin Cheese Showdown

[Dgov]

I can match krazen's swagger. That resolution has no power as long as they are not in Wisconsin, right?

One of the senators arranged to get his paycheck while out-of-state by granting power of attorney to his staff members to claim it for him. The Republicans folded and gave it to him.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/03/awol-wisconsin-dem-beats-the-system-gets-his-paycheck-mailed-to-him.php?ref=fpblg

I'm not a lawyer, but I believe that to be the case. I wonder if any of these people wants to see their families.

Their families can just head on down to Illinois to see them.

[Dgov]

GAME OVER

http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheat-sheet/item/wisconsin-democrats-to-end-exile/game-over/

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/03/wisconsin-dems-deny-wsj-report-of-imminent-return.php?ref=fpblg

The game isn't over until collective bargaining is off the table.  The senate minority leader was simply saying that they would return when that happened, and he believed that will be sooner rather than later because of growing public opposition to Walker's plan.

EDIT: Links exist to be clicked

[Dgov]

And in the link that you quoted they refuted those statements made to the WSJ.

*Slaps self

[Dgov]

And it looks like its done.  Passed 18-1, so it'll go back to the House (since's its technically a different version of the bill, even if it is just a part of another existing one), but Republicans there should pass it easily into law.

And now the democrats have no discernible reason to stay in Illinois (since they supposedly conceded on the budget part already).

[Dgov]

Seems like some notification law about this action was broken (just put on CNN and heard the end of the discussion), but under the law 24 hours are suppose to be given for something like this and 2 hours under emergency procedure, none of which was followed.

From what I understand, the Republicans just cut out all the budgetary parts of the current bill, so i don't think that applies.  There's nothing "new" in this bill, which is why they can do this.

[Dgov]

So what exactly passed in the end?

Basically, The Unions can no longer legally collectively bargain for benefits/working rules (i.e. vacation days, sick leave, health plans, etc.).  There were some changes to bargaining rights over salaries, but I those are still mostly intact.

i think everything else was cut out.

[Dgov]

None of the Dems are in any danger, at least 2 of the republicans are in deep doodoo.

Looking at the data, the Republicans are probably fine, at least until next year.  Wisconsin law prevents elected officials from being recalled until they have served at least a full year in their elected office--which means that the only Republicans the Democrats can target are the ones that were elected in 2008--a much worse environment for the Republican party than currently (PPP has walker down 7 to Barrett in a theoretical poll in the middle of a terrible media cycle for him.  In 2008 the State elected Obama over the much more Moderate McCain by like 14 points)

Add on top that this would be an off-off-year election (where Democrats tend to do much worse than in say, national presidential elections), and I'd say any actual recall elections are going to wind up being much less favorable to the Democrats than you seem to think.

[Dgov]

Violence?

http://mobile.twitter.com/news3jessica#45596184525537280
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svsgvqyr0rQ&feature=youtube_gdata_player

Probably not against other people (though it does look like the protesters are getting closer to that), but vandalism?  Definitely.

[Dgov]

Oh yes I'm sure the total of two Democrats in the class of 2010 who represent Janesville and inner-city Milwaukee are soooooooooo vulnerable.

I think he meant 2008 (which is relavent)

[Dgov]

What a Pyrrhic victory, I see no way for Republicans in Wisconsin to rebound from this unless the protests get really, really, really violent tomorrow and there is more blowback from that. News coverage should be pretty universally negative on their legislative tactics and their rhetoric. Now that the debate is purely about collective bargaining rights vs. no collective bargaining rights and the Republicans can't hide behind the "OMFG budget crisis!!!" argument, they will lose even more popular support.

"GOP uses controversial tactic to overcome controversial Democratic tactic" doesn't exactly strike me as a reputation buster.  I don't think anyone is going to see this as some truly unfair political move that doesn't already hate the GOP.

And speaking of that, Quorum busting is far, FAR less Democratic than legislative trickery is.  Remember that the only reason that we're in this situation is because the Democrats basically decided to take the state legislature hostage.  It seems extremely hypocritical to complain about the GOP muscling a bill through when the reason they had to is because the Democrats were busying hiding in Illinois.

[Dgov]

Not to mention its clear as day this was NEVER about the budget, this was NEVER about the deficit, this was about Union Busting and union busting only, Walker lied his ass off and its clear as day.

Maybe i don't get where you are coming from here, but how on earth is this true?  Republicans are using a procedural gimmick to pass controversial legislation.  It doesn't mean that collective bargaining doesn't affect state and local budgets IMMENSELY, and seriously reduce their budget flexibility when the have a deficit to close.

[Dgov]

Gallup has a new poll out on "Union favorability" using a positive/negative word association

http://www.gallup.com/poll/146588/Republicans-Negative-Democrats-Positive-Describing-Unions.aspx

To summarize, Unions are associated with "negative" words more than "positive" words 38-34, though this doesn't compare directly with some of the other polls taken (so they're not mutually exclusive).  Democrats are under 50% positive on Unions, Republicans are under 60% negative on Unions, and it looks like (from averages) that true unaffiliated are essentially in-between.

[Dgov]

Wow. That's worse than Walker.

Which is why it doesn't pass the smell test for me.  Numbers that bad basically require you to have a significant portion of your base abandon you, and i don't really buy that.

[Dgov]

Wisconsin Teacher charged with death threats against Republican Lawmakers.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/CRIME/04/01/wisconsin.budget.death.threats/

Probably won't change much--the news cycle here has already moved on.

[Dgov]

Does this mean the GOP doesn't have a quorum-proof majority anymore?

No, those seats were vacant at the start of the session.  Reps added 2, Dems added 1, so the numbers are now 59-38-1, so the GOP has just over 60% (and therefore quorum-proof) majority.  I think there's another Special election though, but its a Safe Dem seat in Madison.

[Dgov]

Does this mean the GOP doesn't have a quorum-proof majority anymore?

No, those seats were vacant at the start of the session.  Reps added 2, Dems added 1, so the numbers are now 59-38-1, so the GOP has just over 60% (and therefore quorum-proof) majority.  I think there's another Special election though, but its a Safe Dem seat in Madison.

And once that's filled the republicans will have 59.59% of the seats - though they'd still be able to get to the quorum w/ the independent, if he chooses to turn out.

yeah, but by that point it won't really matter.  Its not like the Democrats are inkling to repeat that boondoggle all over again