Conservative Party (UK) leadership election, 2016

[Phony Moderate]

A Fox and a Crabb are standing, seriously; the latter on a ticket with Javid. Osborne has ruled himself out (shock!) and Jeremy CHunt is considering. Theresa May likely to stand. Meanwhile Boris and Gove apparently had breakfast with Lynton Crosby this morning.

[Phony Moderate]

I think Liam Fox or Boris Johnson wins. Crabb would be a good PM, but he may be too young.

He's the same age as Cameron was in 2010.

Well I suspect that's his point.

Anyway, Michael Gove is standing after all. As is one of the leading lights of the Leave campaign - Andrea Leadsom.

[Phony Moderate]

Gove really twisted the knife into Boris.......I wouldn't be surprised if Boris sits this out now.

Also, Michael Fallon might enter.

[Phony Moderate]

Called it - Boris is out.

[Phony Moderate]

I understand May is loathed amongst certain sections of the membership.

[Phony Moderate]

Why isn't Boris running? Something to do with Michael Gove's e-mail? People need to stop being vague.

It went further than that - Gove out and out said a few hours ago that Boris would make a crap leader. Boris then saw the numbers in the parliamentary party ebb away from him and so he pulled out.

[Phony Moderate]

Worth remembering that Johnson was twice elected Mayor of London and maintained approval ratings of well over 50% throughout the vast majority of his time in office. I don't think even pre-birther Trump would have ever reached 30% as NYC Republican Mayoral candidate. Johnson has only become a figure of hate for many in recent months, for obvious reasons.

[Phony Moderate]

Boris is backing Leadsom.

[Phony Moderate]

May could well have a decent honeymoon but her seemingly cold and aloof personality would quite possibly (and permanently) work against her when the going gets tough, a la Gordon Brown.

[Phony Moderate]

Will probably be a solid yet not overwhelmingly victory for May in the end of something like 55-45, thus getting Leadsom a good spot in the cabinet, maybe even Chancellor (though May would make sure that she's, power-wise, more Nigel Lawson than Gordon Brown).

[Phony Moderate]

Both of these women are in many ways more objectionable from a left/liberal POV than the metropolitan liberal Boris btw.

[Phony Moderate]

In different circumstances the genuine wet Anna Soubry would have probably gone for it.

[Phony Moderate]

So May is the leader or Gove vs May gos to the membership now

May will likely...well, should, become PM within days given the current circumstances, no matter how pissed off dozen of Tory MPs are.

[Phony Moderate]

May to become PM on Wednesday evening, with that day's PMQs being Cameron's curtain fall.

https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/752516859174461440

https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/752516774638325760

[Phony Moderate]

Theresa May speech this morning was remarkably very much similar to Ed Miliband's speech, her speech is a return to pre-thatcher tory party, reminds me so much of Ted Heath, "More concentrated on government rather than market.

Theresa May: A Better Britain
Ted Heath: A better Tomorrow

Ted heath was the last decent tory prime minister and leader.

I have to say her speech got me blushing but got me worried at the same time, it's a direct target to voters the tories lost in 1992 and 1997 to labour they haven't recovered yet.

God don't say that.

Heath was an awful prime minister and took this country into the European federalist's club in the first place remember.

If you look at his less than 4 years as PM almost nothing he did was successful and the poisoning of industrial relations started on his watch.

Yeah, I thought Macmillan was the post-war go-to "I'm Labour but he was a decent PM" Tory PM?

[Phony Moderate]

First May cabinet announcement: the Chief Mouser to the Cabinet Office will remain in his job.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36772515

[Phony Moderate]

Wonder if Cameron will put in a "I'm enjoying this!" display at PMQs today, a la Thatcher.

[Phony Moderate]

Interesting piece of trivia: May, Davis and Fox - who hold arguably the three most important positions in the government at the present time - were all on the Lib Dems' 'decapitation strategy' list in 2005.