Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Rowan]

Sam Spade, do you know what states besides New Mexico will be released today ?

I know I'm not Sam Spade but I'll answer anyway.

5:00 p.m. Eastern:       Kansas President
5:00 p.m. Eastern:       New Mexico President
5:00 p.m. Eastern:       Massachusetts President
5:00 p.m. Eastern:       Illinois President

Ahhh, thx !

My predictions:

Kansas: McCain 55-42
New Mexico: Obama 51-44
Massachusetts: Obama 59-37
Illinois: Obama 56-41

Here's a hint: you'll like the numbers.

[Sbane]

Sam Spade, do you know what states besides New Mexico will be released today ?

I know I'm not Sam Spade but I'll answer anyway.

5:00 p.m. Eastern:       Kansas President
5:00 p.m. Eastern:       New Mexico President
5:00 p.m. Eastern:       Massachusetts President
5:00 p.m. Eastern:       Illinois President

Kansas,Massachusetts and Illinois? This has to be the most pointless day of polling.

[TheGlobalizer]

Sam Spade, do you know what states besides New Mexico will be released today ?

I know I'm not Sam Spade but I'll answer anyway.

5:00 p.m. Eastern:       Kansas President
5:00 p.m. Eastern:       New Mexico President
5:00 p.m. Eastern:       Massachusetts President
5:00 p.m. Eastern:       Illinois President

Kansas,Massachusetts and Illinois? This has to be the most pointless day of polling.

I'll take NM if I have to live with the other 3 useless polls.

[pepper11]

Another state for McCain to retreat from. Put the money in CO.

[Ronnie]

Obama: 50 (nc)
McCain: 46 (+1)

10/16/08

[Sam Spade]

Observation:  Strong McCain sample today in comparison with overall trend and movement.  Most of the movement was in Indys.  Could be outlier or not.  Only time will tell...

Rounded Three-Day Sample

Obama 50%
McCain 46%

Three-Day Sample Breakdown

			samp goes tom	samp went today
Obama	49.56%	(49.98%	50.23%	50.43%	51.09%)
McCain	46.28%	(44.75%	44.60%	44.69%	45.02%)

Party Breakdown: Three-Day Samples

	Thursday		Wednesday		Tuesday		Monday		Sunday
	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain
Democratic	86.33	11.18	86.42	11.03	86.49	11.59	85.90	12.16	86.29	11.63
Republican	9.74	88.15	9.71	87.97	10.71	87.14	9.65	88.17	11.91	86.41
Independent	46.56	45.00	47.34	40.82	47.07	40.40	50.43	38.72	49.81	41.58

[Ronnie]

Awesome results.  If this trend continues Obama will fall under a majority, and it will be near the margin of error...

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Awesome results.  If this trend continues Obama will fall under a majority, and it will be near the margin of error...

"You've got to prepare for losing...We're gonna lose, huge."

[Sam Spade]

Awesome results.  If this trend continues Obama will fall under a majority, and it will be near the margin of error...

"You've got to prepare for losing...We're gonna lose, huge."

That's what happens when you see a few polls in isolation and assume the worst possible outcome.  Of course, he still may be right. 

[Rowan]

Very good news. The "certain to vote for" is now at 41%-41%. The base support is now even for each candidate so its up to the leaners that will decide it.

[Zarn]

Anyone get the favorables?

[pepper11]

Excellent news and just as anticipated.  Should narrow even more in the upcoming days. Mac is back.

[Wiz in Wis]

Call me when the RCP composite falls under 5... really, one point... in Rasmussen. Irrational exuberance.

[Eraserhead]

Excellent news and just as anticipated.  Should narrow even more in the upcoming days. Mac is back.

Why's that? Stocks are tumbling again and Obama will probably get a debate bounce.

[J. J.]

Obama: 50 (nc)
McCain: 46 (+1)

10/16/08

I'll wait for Gallup and see if it matched.

[Zarn]

I heard the favorables were better for McCain. That's why I asked if anyone had them.

Excellent news and just as anticipated.  Should narrow even more in the upcoming days. Mac is back.

Why's that? Stocks are tumbling again and Obama will probably get a debate bounce.

Politico/InsiderAdvantage said the independents chose McCain as the winner last night, and they are left-wing hacks.

[Eraserhead]

Excellent news and just as anticipated.  Should narrow even more in the upcoming days. Mac is back.

Why's that? Stocks are tumbling again and Obama will probably get a debate bounce.

Politico/InsiderAdvantage said the independents chose McCain as the winner last night, and they are left-wing hacks.

Give me a break. They just suck in general, and you are cherry picking. Every other poll out there showed Obama winning among indies easily and every single poll out there (even the IA one) showed Obama winning the debate overall.

[Sam Spade]

Observation:  Strong McCain sample today in comparison with overall trend and movement.  Most of the movement was in Indys.  Could be outlier or not.  Only time will tell...

Ahem...

[Zarn]

Why can't you be objective for 2 seconds?

You do realize no matter who wins, you still don't look good?

I just told you they were left-wing, and they their independents chose McCain.

[Wiz in Wis]

Why can't you be objective for 2 seconds?

You do realize no matter who wins, you still don't look good?

I just told you they were left-wing, and they their independents chose McCain.

Objective... you picked the lone bright spot for McCain out of what, 4 instapolls and 3 focus groups, all the rest of which went Obama, in defense of a 1 point swing, in Rasmussen, to McCain... Dkos, IBD/Tipp, and Diageo/Hotline were flat, Zogby showed Obama gaining 1, and GW, which was the only poll to show McCain ahead in October, still shows an Obama lead of 6. By your logic, I should note that Frank Luntz's focus group went Obama, therefore, your arguement is at least met with a strong counterpoint.

Also, to the guy who said debates dont matter... then why else has Obama picked up an average 1-2 point gain after every one? even the VP?

[Zarn]

Why can't you be objective for 2 seconds?

You do realize no matter who wins, you still don't look good?

I just told you they were left-wing, and they their independents chose McCain.

Objective... you picked the lone bright spot for McCain out of what, 4 instapolls and 3 focus groups, all the rest of which went Obama, in defense of a 1 point swing, in Rasmussen, to McCain... Dkos, IBD/Tipp, and Diageo/Hotline were flat, Zogby showed Obama gaining 1, and GW, which was the only poll to show McCain ahead in October, still shows an Obama lead of 6. By your logic, I should note that Frank Luntz's focus group went Obama, therefore, your arguement is at least met with a strong counterpoint.

Also, to the guy who said debates dont matter... then why else has Obama picked up an average 1-2 point game after every one? even the VP?

The tracking polls will not show indication, until tomorrow through Sunday.

Independents matter. Undecided liberals are not the norm. Their opinions don't matter all too much.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Observation:  Strong McCain sample today in comparison with overall trend and movement.  Most of the movement was in Indys.  Could be outlier or not.  Only time will tell...

Ahem...

Taken before the debate though.

[J. J.]

Observation:  Strong McCain sample today in comparison with overall trend and movement.  Most of the movement was in Indys.  Could be outlier or not.  Only time will tell...

Ahem...

Taken before the debate though.

You probably won't anything solid on any debate effect (if there is any debate effect), until Saturday.

[Boris]

hopefully this is indicative of a tightened race as opposed to statistical noise. It'd be beautiful going into election day tied at 50-50.

[Sbane]

It seems like Mccain gained a little support while Obama stayed where he is. Considering he is at 50, I am not too worried. Anyone who thinks a black man ,who is being portrayed as a terrorist, will win by more than 5 points in America, needs to stop dreaming.