Setting aside the argument of how likely Trump is to win in November, Trump very clearly has not unified the Republican party; there are still prominent Republicans refusing to support him and his scores among Republicans, across the nation, are consistently far lower than Hillary's scores with Democrats (even though Hillary hasn't won the primary yet she's still consolidated Democrats more than Trump has consolidated Republicans, in other words). However, Trump does fare respectably well against Hillary with independents.
If Trump does win, it'll be because he blows her out with independents. A historically low result among Republicans for the Republican nominee is close to baked in at this point.
Trump. Can't. Win. [Koolaid.gif]
Suggesting Trump is likelier to win the general election than people assume because he was assumed to be an unlikely primary winner but still triumphed is like assuming that if you flip a fair coin and it turns up heads, heads are a likelier result than tails from here on out. Past coin flips do not affect future ones, and a candidate defying expectations once doesn't make them likelier to do so again.
The Republican Party hasn't unified completely around its presumptive nominee yet. The process is progressing faster than I expected, but is still far from finished.
Vosem, don't expect any holdouts in the end.
Well, I expect at least the one holdout of me, which is one more than "any". I also think the "party unification" process, at least historically, has been extremely short; after Mitt Romney became the presumptive nominee on April 10, he hit a peak on April 18, just a week later. Trump has a lot more consolidation to do because of what an unusually poor standing he has in the party; his surge is slow-burning (Romney gained more in that week than Trump has since he clinched on May 3) but is still burning more than two weeks later. Shows the differences between campaigns, I guess.
Trump's surge is also comparatively unimpressive in other ways. He is still behind where he was for most of fall 2015. There are still supporters he lost through the primary process (who weren't originally anti-Trump, that is) he has yet to win back, even now.
The percentage of Republicans for Trump will actually be higher than Romney's, who was despised and rejected by the evangelicals.
Romney won white evangelicals against Obama 78-21 according to exit polling, and they were 26% of the electorate. (Thus, 20% of the electorate were Romney-supporting evangelicals). I am quite confident that the number of evangelicals that object to Trump is far greater than the number for Romney, but of course they'll be reluctant to vote for Hillary, so many may sit out. In any case, I highly doubt 20% of the electorate will be Trump-supporting evangelicals.
Evangelicals will not sit this one out. They will vote for Trump.
Evangelicals are intensely patriotic in a traditional way, and Trump's whole campaign appeals to this. Furthermore, Trump will convince them all that he will appoint anti-Roe SCOTUS Justices, and that's enough for them. John McCain was a divorced partier who went to strip clubs and Evangelicals flocked to him because of their sense of patriotism and their desire to see an anti-Roe SCOTUS.
