Fundamentally what New Caledonia needs most of all right now is economic support and an ambitious public investment policy to move past the extraction economy and redistribute resources. Of course I don't expect a neoliberal like Macron to do any of that, but I also don't think an independent New Caledonia/Kanaky to have the resources to do that either (unless they become a de facto Chinese protectorate, which carries its own serious downsides...).
Transitioning to what though, a tourist centric economy? Because that's their only other productive sector of the economy, and I don't think the Kanak leaders want to go down the path of whoring away their culture to attract top tourist dollars.
Instructively, Bougainville's independence leaders have been pushing very hard for reopening and expanding their gold mine, only with the royalties to stay on the island instead of funnelling into Port Moresby. There simply isn't another way for them to generate investment.
Well, what you're outlining a big part of why I don't think it's a good idea for New Caledonia to seek independence. I'm not saying they should stop exporting nickel altogether, and of course profits from such exports should go to the island (iirc they already mostly do following the Nouméa accords), but commodities exports are famously an unreliable revenue source, and one that creates a lot of perverse economic effects. You see that even in large, diverse countries like much of Latin America, and it'd be even worse on a small island in the middle of the Pacific. Being part of a large, economically diversified country can help mitigate those issues in a variety of ways. And as far as what the alternatives are, I'm not an economist but I don't see why tourism is the only sector that could be developed. I'm sure there are avenues of development in manufacturing or in locally-oriented services, given enough political will.
