Ireland 2009

[Јas]

Irish Elections in 2009

5 June: Local Elections
5 June: European Elections
TBD: Dáil By-Elections in Dublin South and Dublin Central
October: 2nd Referendum on the Lisbon Treaty

Though the current Dáil can run until 2012, there is a not unreasonable possibility of a general election this year. It's also possible that other referenda could arise (probably at the same time as the Lisbon Treaty) - most probably one regarding 'children's rights', particularly relating to the laws on statutory rape.

[Јas]

Avril Doyle MEP (FG/EPP-East) will not be defending her European seat. Doyle is coming to the end of her 2nd term in the European Parliament and is the current leader of the FG delegation there. Initial indications are that she may be calling a halt to her political career. (Though she strikes me as a possible FG Presidential candidate for 2011).
- The Irish Times

In 2004, FG won 2 of the 3 seats in the East constituency. This time out it looks like 1 FF, 1 FG with the final seat now probably a contest between FG and Labour.

[Tender Branson]

What's the latest news on the Referendum ? Any polls ?

[Kevinstat]

Who gets to decide when the special election to replace the late Independent TD Tony Gregory is held?  The Taoiseach?  I know the party of a late or resigned TD gets to decide when to call a by-election and (at least roughly) when the election is held, but I don't know who in the party gets to make that decision.  Does Taoiseach Brain Cohen have the descretion over the timing of by-elections to fill both vacancies, through his position as leader of the party of late Fianna Fáil TD Séamus Brennan and though his position as Taoiseach in the case of Tony Gregory?  Could he (or whomever gets to make the decision) keep the seat vacant for the rest of the 30th Dáil if he wants).  Is a by-election is likely in either constituency?  When will one likely be held in either constituency (Séamus Brennan's constituency Dublin South and Tony Gregory's constituency Dublin Central)?  What are people's predictions regarding the by-elections if they are held?  I remember reading on this site that Fianna Fáil was expected to hold Brennan's seat in Dublin South, but I haven't read speculation on the possible Dublin Central by-election or checked out the 2007 results.

[Јas]

What's the latest news on the Referendum ? Any polls ?

I'm not aware of any polls since last November. It's not been getting much attention in the last few weeks, but I'd imagine we'll probably have some more polling before too long. It's too early too say much for certain on it though.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Highly unlikely that FF take either by-election seat; unless Brennan's son runs in Dublin South and even then...

As things stand it is likely that however can rile so-called public anger the most will win either seat.

And the lisbon treaty will fail again. And it will be hilarious.

[Јas]

Who gets to decide when the special election to replace the late Independent TD Tony Gregory is held?  The Taoiseach?  I know the party of a late or resigned TD gets to decide when to call a by-election and (at least roughly) when the election is held, but I don't know who in the party gets to make that decision.  Does Taoiseach Brain Cohen have the descretion over the timing of by-elections to fill both vacancies, through his position as leader of the party of late Fianna Fáil TD Séamus Brennan and though his position as Taoiseach in the case of Tony Gregory?  Could he (or whomever gets to make the decision) keep the seat vacant for the rest of the 30th Dáil if he wants).

For a by-election to come about, the Dáil must pass a resolution directing that a writ be issued to the returning officer of the relevant constituency to hold an election to fill the vacancy. There is no time limit for the passing of the resolution by the Dáil. In effect therefore the Government should be able to control the timing of by-elections and can effectively prevent their occurance.

You’re quite right that, by custom, the former member's own party will move the writ (but not normally until at least a month has passed). It would be quite unusual (though not unprecedented) for a party to be refused a by-election for one of ‘their’ seats.

We’ve only had one by-election in the last 50 years to replace an Independent TD – Wicklow 1995, when Mildred Fox was elected to replace her father, Johnny. On that occasion the then Taoiseach (John Bruton, FG) moved the writ.

The previous occasion when an Independent seat was vacated was that of Kieran Doherty, the imprisoned IRA hunger striker who died a few weeks after being elected in the 1981 General Election as a TD for Cavan-Monaghan. Twice opposition FF deputies moved writs of by-elections, both of which were narrowly defeated by the Dáil votes when the Government opposed the motions.

Is a by-election is likely in either constituency?  When will one likely be held in either constituency (Séamus Brennan's constituency Dublin South and Tony Gregory's constituency Dublin Central)?

Short of a general election occurring (improbable, IMO, but far from impossible) I’d be very surprised if these by-elections weren’t brought about this year. It was thought by some that regarding Dublin South, Fianna Fáil were likely to try and go for the autumn. They’ve been trying to get Séamus Brennan’s son, Shay Brennan, to run (something that is apparently increasingly likely).

Traditionally when multiple vacancies arise the by-elections are held on the same day. The delay in the calling of the Dublin South by-election has already raised qualms amongst the opposition and I suspect that they will seek to have the elections held in the first half of the year and indeed may move the writ on Dublin Central in themselves to try and force this. 5 June (the date for the local and European elections) seems like a not unreasonable bet to me.

What are people's predictions regarding the by-elections if they are held?  I remember reading on this site that Fianna Fáil was expected to hold Brennan's seat in Dublin South, but I haven't read speculation on the possible Dublin Central by-election or checked out the 2007 results.

Dublin South
Fianna Fáil got 41% in Dublin South in the General. Their junior partners did fairly well there. Séamus Brennan was a long-standing, well respected TD and there’s no doubt that a significant element of the electorate would be sympathetic to sending his son to replace him.

However, a Government party has not won a by-election since 1982, a streak of 18 losses now. Fianna Fáil is currently at an all-time low in polling. They’re coming off a major referendum defeat, the loss of a personally popular Dublin based Taoiseach to financial scandal and the unmitigated death, decapitation and destruction of the Celtic Tiger. I think their chances are slim. On paper this looks to me to be a Fine Gael pick-up with Labour not to be ruled out. I’d also keep an eye on what independents step forward.


Dublin Central (2007 General Election Result)

Another constituency where a reasonable number of pros for FF. Bertie Ahern’s home constituency - his electoral machine (and it’s very definitely his machine, not Fianna Fáil’s) is a huge asset. If a Bertie-ite is chosen as the FF nominee then they certainly can’t be ruled out. However, the likely favoured FF candidate is Mary Fitzpatrick – not a Bertie-ite by any means, indeed someone who begrudges what she felt was Bertie’s cold shoulder in the last General Election.

On paper, this seems to me to be a potential Labour gain, but getting a good, party-uniting candidate may not be easy. There is word of an Independent Gregory-ite candidate being put forward who would have a good basis for a run, but it’s too early to speculate too much on this. Fine Gael can’t necessarily be dismissed either.

We’ll have to wait and see on this one.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

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Labour already have one seat here (Costello) - would they really go for another? In a GE, the chances of retaining both are very slim even in good circumstances for Labour and then there are vote splitting and transfer problems.

Unless someone associated with Gregory runs (who?), I'd go with FG gain here for now.

[Јas]

Labour already have one seat here (Costello) - would they really go for another?

Almost certainly. It'd be remarkable if an organised political party with a realistic shot at a seat didn't contest it. They may have difficulty finding the right candidate but I'd bet my bottom dollar on there being a Labour candidate on the ballot. The only way I'd see this not happening is if they were to support some Gregory-ite candidate, but I think that's quite unlikely.

In a GE, the chances of retaining both are very slim even in good circumstances for Labour and then there are vote splitting and transfer problems.

Certainly, the chances aren't fantastic of retaining 2. However, presumably with no Bertie to run (and so presumably a less effective Drumcondra Mafia) and no Gregory, the prospects increase markedly. Without Bertie, even at the best of times, I couldn't see FF taking 2 here and these are of course not the best of times.

The hypothetical Labour incumbent will have had a number of years to try and establish their own base and given a very fractured leftist vote in the constituency, couldn't be ruled out in a General Election. Plus at the very least, their chances of retaining 1 increase - while Deputy Costello may not be enamoured with the idea, the Labour Party should definitely be contesting the seat.

Unless someone associated with Gregory runs (who?), I'd go with FG gain here for now.

There's a couple of possibilities from the Gregory camp. Mick Rafferty, who took his seat on the City Council in 2004 and has been part of Gregory's campaign team for some time, is a possibility. It's much too early to say though.

[Tender Branson]

What's the latest news on the Referendum ? Any polls ?

I'm not aware of any polls since last November. It's not been getting much attention in the last few weeks, but I'd imagine we'll probably have some more polling before too long. It's too early too say much for certain on it though.

New Sunday Independent / Quantum Research survey:

Yes - 55%
No - 30%
Undecided - 15%

http://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/view/20090111/world-news/irish-to-back-eu-treaty-in-new-vote

[Јas]

The Sunday Independent lack all credibility.
I never post their 'polling' on anything.

[Јas]

Following Labour deciding to move the writ for a by-election in Dublin South, the matter has been approved by the Dáil. It will be held on the same day as the Euopean and Local elections, 5 June.

- The Irish Times

[Kevinstat]

Following Labour deciding to move the writ for a by-election in Dublin South, the matter has been approved by the Dáil. It will be held on the same day as the Euopean and Local elections, 5 June.

- The Irish Times

So when do you (Jas, and also Gully Foyle - I mean The Man Machine) now think the Dublin Central by-election will be held?  As Finian McGrath was an anti-Government Independent the Government might not have the credibility to delay the calling of that election like they did in Dublin South.  Perhaps Fianna Fáil is concerned that if Fine Gael or Labour or a Gregorite independent win both by-elections (as seems likely), expelled (caucus-wise) Fianna Fáil TD Jim McDaid will come out against the government, the Greens will withdraw from the government, ex-Fine Gael TD Michael Lowry will come on board and the non-Sinn Féin opposition (the current Fine Gael (51), Labour (20) and Green (6) TDs, the two TDs elected in the special elections, McDaid, Lowry, Joe Behan (who resigned from Fianna Fáil on 17 October), Finian McGrath (who withdrew his support from the Government on 20 October according to ElectionsIreland.org)) will have 83 TDs, enough to form a government of their own unless John O'Donoghue resigns as Ceann Comhairle which would put a sure second seat in Kerry South for Fianna Fáil in serious jeopardy.  How cozy are the Greens in government now, by the way?

[Јas]

Following Labour deciding to move the writ for a by-election in Dublin South, the matter has been approved by the Dáil. It will be held on the same day as the Euopean and Local elections, 5 June.

- The Irish Times

So when do you (Jas, and also Gully Foyle - I mean The Man Machine) now think the Dublin Central by-election will be held?  As Finian McGrath was an anti-Government Independent the Government might not have the credibility to delay the calling of that election like they did in Dublin South.  Perhaps Fianna Fáil is concerned that if Fine Gael or Labour or a Gregorite independent win both by-elections (as seems likely), expelled (caucus-wise) Fianna Fáil TD Jim McDaid will come out against the government, the Greens will withdraw from the government, ex-Fine Gael TD Michael Lowry will come on board and the non-Sinn Féin opposition (the current Fine Gael (51), Labour (20) and Green (6) TDs, the two TDs elected in the special elections, McDaid, Lowry, Joe Behan (who resigned from Fianna Fáil on 17 October), Finian McGrath (who withdrew his support from the Government on 20 October according to ElectionsIreland.org)) will have 83 TDs, enough to form a government of their own unless John O'Donoghue resigns as Ceann Comhairle which would put a sure second seat in Kerry South for Fianna Fáil in serious jeopardy.  How cozy are the Greens in government now, by the way?

I'd say it's now all but certain that the Dublin Central by-election will also be held on 5 June.
Both seats will almost certainly fall to the opposition - but the Government should still be able to stand it's ground.

Fianna Fáil, the Greens and the ex-PDs together make 83 (which is just enough anyway) and they still retain the outright support of 2 Independents (Lowry and Healy-Rae). Question marks will always hang over just how much Lowry is willing to stand by the Government - but he hasn't wavered so far, despite the abandonment of the Government by other independents and fully-fledged FF TDs.

Neither McDaid nor Behan are necessarily reliable opposition votes. Indeed, I'd suggest that when push comes to shove, they (McDaid, in particular) may be more likely to support than oppose the Government at critical moments.

The Green leadership has so far shown no indication of a willingness to jump ship. They've had considerable issues with that section of the grassroots which were not comfortable entering coalition with FF in the first place - however the parliamentary party remains seemingly resolute. The June election results may be significant.

It's hard to envisage a scenario whereby we have a change of Government without a General Election. I don't see any way the opposition gather a stable coalition of 83+ votes; nor am I inclined to believe that Fine Gael are prepared at this time to enter a government supported by Sinn Féin.

A General Election is though far from inconceivable. Dire economic news continues to come forth on a daily basis. The Government yesterday announced spending cuts of around €2 billion, mostly through pay cuts for public servants - following the breakdown of social partnership, thus hugely increasing the potential for significant industrial action. The Government also intends to recapitalise Irish banks to the cost of €8 billion. New unemployment figures yesterday show that it continues to break records in it's rapid rise - with high profile job losses announced now with regularity. Ireland's credit rating is expected to take a hit in the coming days also undermining international confidence. etc,. etc. ad nauseum.

The Government lost 3 TDs in the first wave of this crisis, but with further spending cuts of €4 billion apparantly required for the next budget and further billions to be found for the coming few years - sooner or later they will be testing the patience and resolve of everyone.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Not to be honest I'm so sick and bored with RTE Radio 1 and the "OMG RECESSION OMG OMG OMG" line of reporting that I haven't been much up to stratch with the news as of late, only to see that Brian Cowen is failing even more epically than before, the more it goes on the worse it gets...

The By-elections will be interesting. At this point I doubt the Govt will last until 2012, if there are a few more deaths/resiginations/resigning the whip....

[Verily]

By the way, when did this happen?

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/32786/fine_gael_holds_on_to_lead_in_ireland/

Fine Gael: 33 (-2 on Nov 2008)
Fianna Fail: 28 (-2)
Labour: 14 (nc)
Sinn Fein: 9 (+1)
Green: 8 (+3)

[Јas]

By the way, when did this happen?

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/32786/fine_gael_holds_on_to_lead_in_ireland/

Fine Gael: 33 (-2 on Nov 2008)
Fianna Fail: 28 (-2)
Labour: 14 (nc)
Sinn Fein: 9 (+1)
Green: 8 (+3)

The poll was published on 1 February in the Sunday Business Post, research by RedC.

Some may also be interested in their numbers on the Lisbon Treaty which were 58-28-14.

I'm not sure how much credibility I attach to either set of numbers though.

[Verily]

I meant a more general question about when it happened that Fianna Fail's fortunes went so far south. Clearly it's not an immediately recent development since the November poll also had them 5 points behind Fine Gael. I suppose it's probably economic crisis-related.

It's interesting to see in which countries the governing parties are suffering for the bad economy against where the governing parties seem to be doing swimmingly. (Compare Britain and Ireland to Australia, where the ALP has seen its poll ratings soar to the immense pre-election leads they had in 2007.) The US is not great for comparison because we've had a party change since the crisis began.

[Јas]

I meant a more general question about when it happened that Fianna Fail's fortunes went so far south. Clearly it's not an immediately recent development since the November poll also had them 5 points behind Fine Gael. I suppose it's probably economic crisis-related.

The last poll that had Fianna Fáil above 30% was on 21 October when they led Fine Gael 36-28.
Last week's poll makes 3 in a row in which they're trailing FG:
14 Nov (TNS-MRBI) 26-33
23 Nov (RedC) 30-35
1 Feb (RedC) 28-33

You're quite right that the economy is the major reason for the shift. As I noted before, these numbers are historic lows for FF. Since then the economy has only gotten worse. Only last week, the Taoiseach, after ending social partnership and making significant public service wage cuts, has said we should expect a 10-12% fall in our standard of living; as well as advising that unemployment is likely to easily surpass 10% this year. Since the budget, protests, such as third-level students (below), have been increasingly common - and with the Government needing to billions in expenditure year-on-year for at least 4 more years...




On a somewhat unrelated point, it seems to me that our economic woe also the reason why the numbers in favour of the Lisbon Treaty continue to rise - the idea that because we have been saved an even worse downturn because we are in the eurozone seems has gotten quite a bit of play and would seem at this point to have been adopted as conventional wisdom.

[minionofmidas]

the idea that because we have been saved an even worse downturn because we are in the eurozone seems has gotten quite a bit of play and would seem at this point to have been adopted as conventional wisdom.

Now for the Brits to get the same idea (I'm not sure if it's literally *true*, but there's certainly some truth in there.)

[Јas]

TNSmrbi Poll for tomorrow's Irish Times:

TNS were the most accurate pollsters in the last election.
The below numbers include data from the new poll; the previous TNS poll in November; and the General Election.

	TNSmrbi	TNSmrbi	Election
	Feb 09	Nov 08	May 07
Fianna Fáil	22%	27%	42%
Fine Gael	32%	34%	28%
Labour	24%	14%	10%
Sinn Féin	8%	7%	7%
Greens	4%	4%	5%
Indies/Others	9%	13%	8%

Labour outpoll Fianna Fáil for the first time ever, on the back of a 10 point surge, as FF plumb new depths leading a terribly unpopular Government (see below). And yet still (and thankfully) the pollsters continue to find that the public have no great appetite for Enda Kenny's Fine Gael.

The poll puts FF at almost half the support they had at the General Election; and Labour at almost 2¹/₂ times their support then.


Satisfaction with the Government?
14-82

Prefer a change of Government?
62-28


More data should be available tomorrow and Saturday, presumably to include new Lisbon numbers.

[Hash]

Wow.

[The Mikado]

Fianna Epic Fail.

OK, I need to go repent.  Sorry.

[Hash]

Fianna Epic Fail.

OK, I need to go repent.  Sorry.

I move that we now say epic fáil instead of epic fail.

[Јas]

More numbers from the TNS poll.

Leadership Satisfaction Ratings
Brian Cowen (FF) 24-69 (Satisfieds: -2)
Enda Kenny (FG) 30-52 (Satisfieds: -3)
Eamon Gilmore (Lab) 44-32 (Satisfieds: +6)
John Gormley (Grn) 29-47 (Satisfieds: +1)
Gerry Adams (SF) 32-40 (Satisfieds: -1)

Only Labour leader Eamon Gilmore has a net positive satisfaction rating, and is at his highest satisfaction rating ever.
Cowen and Adams are now at their lowest satisfaction ratings ever; Kenny is at his lowest since 2003.


Fianna Fáil Supporters
Satisfaction with the Taoiseach? 56-39
Support the Government? 40-55

Green Party Supporters
Satisfaction with the Taoiseach? 18-79
Prefer Change of Government? 61-29
Support the Government? *-85

*unpublished