The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Paul 0.01%

explain

as of this date, there is an extremely slight, but non zero, chance for Paul to win the nomination.

Could you explain the series of events that would lead to this? Because I can't think of anything short of magical/divine intervention that would result in a Paul nomination.

If there is a protracted fight at the convention so that there needs to be more than just one ballot for president, it is possible that both the establishment and base camps decide that the party is too damaged to win the presidency this year.  In which case they may seek to avoid having their side tarred with the inevitable loss and hand it off to John Davis Ron Paul.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

So yeah, Jeb Bush is currently trading ahead of where Gore, or any other such fantasy candidate, was trading four years ago.  And brokered convention for the Dems four years ago was trading above brokered convention for the GOP right now.....even though the fact that there were only two candidates made a brokered convention nearly impossible for the Dems four years ago.

You're forgetting that the Democrats had a bunch of unpledged superdelegates.  That opened up the possibility for someone to win a majority of the pledged delegates and still not be able to clinch a first ballot victory.  GOP rules result in a lot less unpledged delegates. making it far less likely for them to have a contested convention in a two candidate race.