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Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 655386 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
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Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #1075 on: March 13, 2016, 07:03:26 AM »

Turnout up significantly so far (until 12:00) in both BW and SA.
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President Johnson
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Posts: 28,592
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


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« Reply #1076 on: March 13, 2016, 07:24:30 AM »

Yes, turnout is high in Baden Württemberg. Especially in larger cities. This is good news for the governing Green-Red-Coalition.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #1077 on: March 13, 2016, 07:36:37 AM »

Quote
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Turnout in RP was 44% at 12:00 - up from 31% at the same time in 2011.

Smiley
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #1078 on: March 13, 2016, 07:40:03 AM »

When does polls close ?  I assume 5PM Berlin time ?

6pm.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,152
United States


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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #1079 on: March 13, 2016, 07:40:48 AM »


Thanks.  I just saw the same info earlier in the thread.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,152
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #1080 on: March 13, 2016, 07:47:33 AM »

Yes, turnout is high in Baden Württemberg. Especially in larger cities. This is good news for the governing Green-Red-Coalition.

Could be.  But could it also not be urban AfD voters who were non-voters before coming out in large numbers?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #1081 on: March 13, 2016, 07:50:11 AM »

If the current trends hold, then my new updated turnout projections for today are:

75% Rheinland-Pfalz (+13%)
70% Baden-Württemberg (+4%)
56% Sachsen-Anhalt (+5%)

Damn ... Easterners, get your lazy asses up and go voting !
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President Johnson
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Posts: 28,592
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


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« Reply #1082 on: March 13, 2016, 07:58:48 AM »

If the current trends hold, then my new updated turnout projections for today are:

75% Rheinland-Pfalz (+13%)
70% Baden-Württemberg (+4%)
56% Sachsen-Anhalt (+5%)

Damn ... Easterners, get your lazy asses up and go voting !

Turnouts are always low in the east. One reason why right-wingers are so strong.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #1083 on: March 13, 2016, 08:08:47 AM »

If the current trends hold, then my new updated turnout projections for today are:

75% Rheinland-Pfalz (+13%)
70% Baden-Württemberg (+4%)
56% Sachsen-Anhalt (+5%)

Damn ... Easterners, get your lazy asses up and go voting !

Turnouts are always low in the east. One reason why right-wingers are so strong.

Yes, turnout is high in Baden Württemberg. Especially in larger cities. This is good news for the governing Green-Red-Coalition.

Could be.  But could it also not be urban AfD voters who were non-voters before coming out in large numbers?

Both of you are right: In the Upper Austria and Vienna state elections, the first elections in central Europe impacted by the migrant crisis, there was a big increase in turnout (like in Germany today).

On the one hand, the high turnout (82% in Upper Austria and 75% in Vienna) led to a slight underperforming of the FPÖ relative to polls. But they still managed to get 31% in both states.

Based on this, it's likely that the AfD does really well today - because many previous non-voters are voting. Of course this might also help the established parties to some extent and the AfD might for example not break 20% in SA, or 15% in BW and RP and remain slightly below ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #1084 on: March 13, 2016, 08:20:26 AM »

Turnout in Sachsen-Anhalt has picked up even more ...

At 2pm, it was 35.4% (+7%).

Overall, it could hit close to 60% (+9%), if the trend continues.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,152
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #1085 on: March 13, 2016, 08:25:28 AM »

Any links to results?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #1086 on: March 13, 2016, 08:30:48 AM »


RP: http://www.wahlen.rlp.de/ltw/wahlen/2016/index.html

SA: https://www.statistik.sachsen-anhalt.de/wahlen/lt16/index.html

The BW site has broken down ...
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President Johnson
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Posts: 28,592
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


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« Reply #1087 on: March 13, 2016, 10:02:39 AM »

First results expected to come in in two hours
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Donnie
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« Reply #1088 on: March 13, 2016, 10:11:23 AM »

Which parties profit from this increased turnout?
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DavidB.
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Israel


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E: 0.58, S: 4.26


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« Reply #1089 on: March 13, 2016, 10:14:43 AM »

Which parties profit from this increased turnout?
Mainly AfD, probably.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #1090 on: March 13, 2016, 10:54:25 AM »

16:00 turnout updates:

+13% Rheinland-Pfalz
  +7% Sachsen-Anhalt
  +5% Baden-Württemberg

New estimates: 75% RP, 71% BW, 58% SA
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DavidB.
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Israel


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E: 0.58, S: 4.26


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« Reply #1091 on: March 13, 2016, 10:57:44 AM »

Sachsen-Anhalt has Landescode ST for a reason... Curly
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #1092 on: March 13, 2016, 11:02:11 AM »

Sachsen-Anhalt has Landescode ST for a reason... Curly

I know, but I don't care (mostly because Americans would be confused) ... Tongue
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #1093 on: March 13, 2016, 11:15:00 AM »

Hundreds of riot police are protecting the AfD headquarters in Stuttgart for their election (victory ?) party ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #1094 on: March 13, 2016, 11:21:51 AM »

Live streams ...

ARD

ZDF

Polls close in 40 minutes.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1095 on: March 13, 2016, 11:50:07 AM »

ARD-guy is presenting some of the exit poll data and the numbers suggest that the AfD might not do that well in the Western states, but could shock in Sachsen-Anhalt.

In the 2 Western states, ~60% are happy with the current conditions in the state.

In Sachsen-Anhalt, it's the exact opposite with over 60% saying the current conditions are troubling.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #1096 on: March 13, 2016, 11:56:36 AM »

"I approve of Merkel's refugee policy."

43% BW
43% RP
29% SA
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #1097 on: March 13, 2016, 11:58:16 AM »

Exit polls in 2 minutes.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #1098 on: March 13, 2016, 12:06:30 PM »

Yeah, AfD not as strong as expected in the West (11-13%), but at 23% in Sachsen-Anhalt.

Greens to win Baden-Württemberg.

SPD on track to win Rheinland-Pfalz.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #1099 on: March 13, 2016, 12:12:21 PM »

Note: These are just exit polls.

A first projection with already some counted precincts will be out in ca. 30 minutes.
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