Electoral College problems for Republicans

[Ljube]

Is this the only plausible victory that the Republicans can have in presidential elections? If so, they need a candidate that can carry Florida and Ohio (and Virginia and Iowa on top of that) with absolute certainty, or at least with better than 50% chance. Does a candidate like that exist?

[Ljube]

OK. I think we can agree that no Republican can win Nevada any more. Virginia is slipping.

So, who should be the Republican candidate in two years, who could win FL, OH and then 2 out of three PA, VA and IA?
CO is still in play, but not easily part of electoral calculus.

Another question: Can a Republican win in CO and PA and forfeit FL?

[Ljube]

JMO, but this board severely overrates how loyal NH is to the Democratic Party.  It would go GOP in a favorable environment with a solid candidate.

NH has same day registration. So does Wisconsin. I think we can all agree there are more Democrats than Republicans in the country. Therefore, these two states are out of reach of the GOP in presidential years when the Democrats are willing to spend huge amounts on GOTV effort.


By the way, could you elaborate on your favorable environment and solid candidate?

[Ljube]

Same as OP but I give GOP NH because it is not a state won on minority turnout. I'm a big believer in demographics for election results and the GOP's best chance is to carry about 64% of the white vote which would be this map.

OK. We're getting somewhere and I tend to agree. Latinos coming back to GOP isn't going to happen in 2016.

Now, which candidate would be the best for running up the margin with whites to 64%?

[Ljube]

The presumptive nominee for the Democratic Party is Hillary Rodham Clinton.
So, let's consider only her in our deliberation, please.

[Ljube]

What percentage of the white vote is Hillary's floor?

[Ljube]

Is it possible that Hillary will perform much worse with men than Obama did?
If that happens, she may get less than 38% of the vote.
She won't get more women than Obama already got. I think Obama maxed out on women.


In those circumstances, which candidate would be best: Bush, Christie, or Rubio?
I know that Paul is a serious candidate and I support him, but I don’t think that 2016 will be his year because of ISIS.

[Ljube]

Yeah. That too.

[Ljube]

So, if she hits the floor, the door will hit her.

[Ljube]

I don't expect the Republicans to repeat the debacle of the 2012 primaries.
In addition to this, the candidates this time look better.
In addition to this, Hillary is a weaker candidate than Obama.
In addition to this, Hillary is too old. That fact alone will play a big role.


Ted Cruz will be dead in the water after Iowa and New Hampshire, or maybe even before that.

I see Bush, Christie and Rubio as established candidates.
Ryan is a possibility, but his fiscal conservatism would be inappropriate for 2016, because Republicans need high margins with whites, and they don't want to put off the white worker class.

Which one of those I mentioned would stand a chance against Hillary?
Which other candidate I didn't mention could be a serious contender?

[Ljube]

OK. But if her floor is 38% whites, then the election is already lost.
Hence this thread.

It may be necessary to resort to a candidate being personally able to carry FL, VA, OH and IA without winning the popular vote, like G. W. Bush.

[Ljube]

If that happens, Republicans can forget about winning in presidential election.

[Ljube]

Yes, but so does the overall electorate. If the Dems could turn out all those dormant voters in large states...
That would be a true landslide.

[Ljube]

To win in 2016 the GOP needs a candidate that can get Romney numbers with whites and Bush 04 numbers with non-whites. Good luck with that.

Ding ding. The GOP's demographic problem in a nutshell. The fact that they have to try to hold Hillary Clinton, who dominated among working class whites in the 2008 primary, to a lower share of the white vote than John f'ing Kerry perfectly sums up the problems the GOP will have in 2016.

Not that it can't be done, but the "muh Democratic fatigue" sweeping the GOP into the White House like many blue avatars seem to think will happen won't be quite so easy.

Key to winning working class whites is nominating a populist, the sort of compassionate conservative who is a complete opposite to my own political views (social conservative and economical populist). The second part of the winning combo is linking Hillary to Obama. She won't be able to escape that association.

While that linking will persuade whites to support the Republican, it will not energize the blacks and the Hispanics to support her. Linking her to Obama is a win-win option, so I see that it will be the crux of the Republican campaign from very early on (March 2016).

[Ljube]

To win, Republicans must win back the sorts of people who believe in thrift, investment, enterprise, and rational thought -- essentially the sorts who would have voted for Eisenhower in the 1950s. They have no use for attempts to impose fundamentalist Christianity in the schools or regulate sexuality.

If Republicans ignore such people, then Democrats will pick them up.

These people are rational and they understand that it is usually necessary to vote for someone who isn't a perfect fit for their own vies and beliefs, but who is a far lesser evil. Of course, Ted Cruz and his lookalikes would be off-putting to these people.

[Ljube]

I think this is a realistic PVI map (that means if the country splits exactly 50/50, not who wins each state). Florida and Wisconsin are the tough ones here. A lot of people here don't think Florida can lean D but that only takes a 2.99% trend. In years with new candidates (2000, 2008) that number is very common either way as opposed to re-election years (2004, 2012).

OK. Let's say the popular vote is 50/50.

This is a terrible loss for Republicans. To win with 50/50, they need FL and another state.
Could Christie put New Jersey in play? Democrats are very skilled at winning swing states on turnout, but since New Jersey is not a swing state, they could have problems winning it, if it became competitive.

[Ljube]

In other words, can this be a plausible Christie victory?

[Ljube]

OK. For that victory path (Romney + FL, OH, CO, VA + extras IA and NH) you need to get the percentage of the Hispanic vote that G. W. Bush got. I guess, the only candidate that could get similar percentage is another Bush.

So, is Jeb Bush the best Republican candidate at the moment? Will his last name hurt him?


And just like pbrower2a said: there is no room for error. Republicans need all battleground states. Another path to victory simply doesn’t exist because of the high floor the Democrats have in the Electoral College.

[Ljube]

I agree.

Is Bush more electable than Christie?
With a sensible platform (minimum wage rise, expanded Medicaid, comprehensive immigration reform) could he win back Latinos and carry all required states (FL, CO and VA). OH would be the most problematic of the must win swing states.
I am assuming he can win Georgia and North Carolina, in spite of the current polls.

[Ljube]

Hillary is a strong candidate, so at this point I'd say a Democratic hold.
But there is a chance for a Republican pickup, because the Democrats have held the presidency for 2 cycles. In fact, any other possible Democratic nominee would have lower chances than Bush, Christie, or Rubio.

[Ljube]

Gore - Bush basically. Voters fatigue.

[Ljube]

OK, here are the numbers:

The electorate in two years is going to be 71% white, 12% black, 12% hispanic, 3% asian and 2% others. This is due to depressed black turnout. Hispanics may rise even up to 13%, but let's have them at 12%.

The following numbers are, in my opinion, best case scenario numbers for Republicans against Hillary. I'll list Jeb's numbers:

60% whites, 11% blacks, 38% hispanics, 41% asians, 40% others.

These numbers give Jeb a 1% margin of victory in the popular vote. But that 1% victory may not be enough for him to win the presidency. And these numbers are the most generous numbers to a Republican I could think of.

[Ljube]

With the new Marquette poll showing Walker winning with 50-43, a question has to be asked:

Can Walker carry Wisconsin in the Presidential Election and if so, will it be enough to tip the scales?


We haven't really discussed second tier candidates here, but Walker, provided he wins re-election, could become top tier.