Australian Election Results Thread

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's really unexpected.

My money is on Turnbull/Hockey - stick it to the right.

Is it me or do some of these so-called 'Liberals' actually verge on being psychotically right-wing? A right nutjob seems to have just been elected in Mitchell, NSW

Dave

Ah yes, Mr Hawke... Interesting character, let's just say he's taken some risks in the past and the skeletons in his closet have some flesh on them.

[ag]

Looks like (at least so far) that only in 3 seats there has been any swing towards the Coalition.  In Cowan (WA) it means a Lib pick-up, in Wentworth (NSW) it's a Lib hold of a marginal and in Franklin (TAS) Libs largest swing (+2.99) merely means a slightly less safe Labor hold. Swan is very marginal, but for now it looks like a tiny swing towards Labor.

So, even in WA all seats but one (or, possibly, two) have swung towards Labor.

[ag]

All polls have just reported from Bennelong, and they've counted the pre-polls. The swing to Labor is 5.79%. Only postals and provisionals remain.

Same count stage in Sturt - and Lib lead became more comfortable, if still marginal (Lib candidate got a whooping 64% of the pre-polls). AEC now counts it as Lib hold.

According to AEC only 8 seats remain "close".

[Meeker]

Turnbull has announced he's running for leadership.

I hadn't even heard of this guy until yesterday, yet already I despise him...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I actually like Turnbull.

He's the best chance to wrestle the party away from the extreme right-wing.

[ag]

According to AEC only 7 seats remain "close". In 6 of them ALP is ahead. The closest seat remains Swan, where the swing is back into Lib favor (0.01%) - but not yet enough to get the Lib into the lead (ALP incumbent is ahead by 85 votes on TPP).  In all but a couple of these seats the pre-polls have been counted, but not postals and provisionals.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

and in Franklin (TAS) Libs largest swing (+2.99) merely means a slightly less safe Labor hold.

Retirement of an extremely popular incumbent means that normal service has resumed their. If the original candidate hadn't been resigned, which happend in part due to various things the retiring incumbent did, Labor would probably have lost the seat.

[ag]

Swan becomes more and more of a knife-edge. W/ 41 out of 42 polls reporting, and w/ the pre-polls counted Wilkie (ALP) leads by 39 votes. The remaining poll is the Boronia pre-release prison for women.  How do the women prisoners vote?  Of course, postal and provisional ballots remain to be counted as well.

[ag]

BTW, the results in Batman, so far, are (on TPP) ALP 76.68%, LIB 23.32% and in Grayndler they are 75.49% to 24.51%

[Silent Hunter]

Batman? There's a seat called Batman?

Is it official that Howard is going to collect whatever the Australian equivalent of a P45 is?

(That would be funny with him going into the unemployment office. Sounds like a sketch for a comedy show...)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Batman? There's a seat called Batman?

Yes; it's in Melbourne. Just north of the city centre. Named after John Batman.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=aaLLP4sc_6Q

[Robespierre's Jaw]

I actually like Turnbull.

He's the best chance to wrestle the party away from the extreme right-wing.

And I hope he wins the leadership. I swear if Tony Abbott or Brendon Nelson becomes Leader, there is no chance that the Liberal Party can win in 2010.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Swan becomes more and more of a knife-edge. W/ 41 out of 42 polls reporting, and w/ the pre-polls counted Wilkie (ALP) leads by 39 votes. The remaining poll is the Boronia pre-release prison for women.  How do the women prisoners vote?  Of course, postal and provisional ballots remain to be counted as well.

In '04, only one vote was cast there and it didn't count.  In '01, no votes were cast for the prison mobile team 1 - though the prison apparently had a different name.  In other words, the result is unlikely to change there.

Postal ballots will probably lean Lib and may be enough to overcome a 39 vote lead - though Provisionals leaned heavy Labor in '04.  If the margins are the same as they were in '04, then the ALP would gain enough out of provisionals to make up for postals though.

[minionofmidas]

 

Batman? There's a seat called Batman?

Yes; it's in Melbourne. Just north of the city centre. Named after John Batman.

While the Turkish constituency of the same name is named for its capital city.

[Verily]

For those interested, the results on d'Hondt instead of IRV.

1% threshold:
ALP: 70
Liberal: 57
Greens: 12
Nationals: 8
Family First: 3

2-5% threshold:
ALP: 71
Liberal: 59
Greens: 12
Nationals: 8

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've just noticed that the refounded-rump-DLP polled relatively well in a division named Calwell. Amusing, no?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Results for Xenophon by division:

Adelaide: 16.8%
Barker: 10.9%
Boothby: 20.2%
Grey: 8.8%
Hindmarsh: 17.7%
Kingston: 14.8%
Makin: 16.4%
Mayo: 17.1%
Port Adelaide: 14%
Sturt: 18.9%
Wakefield: 13%

Conclusion? He did best in Adelaide, especially the middle class parts of Adelaide. Not a surprise really.

[ag]

So, while it is still early, we might start looking at the future pendulum.

Starting from ultra-safe labor (over 20% TPP swing necessary to overturn):

1. Batman VIC 76.7% ALP
2. Grayndler NSW 75.5% ALP
3. Throsby NSW 74.1% ALP
4. Melbourne VIC 73.6% ALP
5. Wills VIC 73.6% ALP
6. Gellibrand VIC 72.0% ALP
7. Scullin VIC 71.2% ALP
8. Chifley NSW 71.0% ALP
9. Watson NSW 71.0% ALP
10. Gorton VIC 71.0% ALP
11. Sydney NSW 70.1% ALP
12. Port Adelaide SA 70.1% ALP

[ag]

Very safe labor (over 15% TPP swing necessary):

13. Calwell VIC 69.6% LP
14. Blaxcland NSW 69.2% ALP
15. Fowler NSW 69.0% ALP
16. Cunningham NSW 68.5 ALP
17. Reid NSW 67.% ALP
18. Hunter NSW 66.5% ALP
19. Newcastle NSW 65.9% ALP
20. Lalor VIC 65.8% ALP
21. Dennison TAS 65.7% ALP
22. Maribyrnong VIC 65.5% ALP
23. Fraser ACT 65.4% ALP
24. Werriwa NSW 65.3% ALP
25. Shortland NSW 65.1% ALP

[ag]

Safe labor (over 10% swing necessary):

26. Oxley QLD 64.9% ALP
27. Prospect NSW 63.9% ALP
28. Hotham VIC 63.8% ALP
29. Kingsford Smith NSW 63.6% ALP
30. Capricornia QLD 63.4% ALP
31. Charlton NSW 63.3% ALP
32. Lingiari NT 62.8% ALP
33. Holt VIC 62.6% ALP
34. Barton NSW 62.5% ALP
35. Griffith QLD 62.4% ALP
36. Rankin QLD 61.9 ALP
37. Canberra ACT 61.8 ALP
38. Banks NSW 61.2% ALP

[ag]

Strong Labor (over 5% swing required):

39. Corio VIC 59.5% ALP
40. Fremantle WA 59.4% ALP
41. Perth WA 59.4% ALP
42. Jagajaga VIC 59.2% ALP
43. Richmond NSW 58.9 ALP
44. Lyons TAS 58.8% ALP
45. Lilley QLD 58.7% ALP
46. Ballarat VIC 58.5 ALP
47. Bruce VIC 58.3% ALP
48. Adelaide SA 58.1% ALP
49. Isaacs VIC 58.0% ALP
50. Makin SA 58.0% ALP (gain)
51. Melbourne Ports VIC 58.0% ALP
52. Chisholm VIC 57.8% ALP
53. Lowe NSW 57.4% ALP
54. Maquarie NSW 57.4% ALP
55. Parramatta NSW 57.2% ALP (notional gain)
56. Lindsay NSW 57.1% ALP (gain)
57. Brisbane QLD 57.1% ALP
58. Wakefield SA 57.0% ALP (gain)
59. Brand WA 56.1% ALP
60. Bendigo VIC 56.0% ALP
61. Hindmarsh SA 55.2% ALP
62. Bonner QLD 55.1% ALP (gain)

[ag]

Marginal labor (between 1% and 5% swing necessary):

63. Blair QLD 54.9% ALP (gain)
64. Leichhardt QLD 54.8% ALP (gain)
65. Moreton QLD 54.8% ALP (gain)
66. Franklin TAS 54.6 ALP
67. Kingston SA 54.6% ALP (gain)
68. Eden-Monaro NSW 54.2% ALP (gain)
69. Dobell NSW 54.1% ALP (gain)
70. Longman QLD 53.8% ALP (gain)
71. Dawson QLD 53.5% ALP (gain)
72. Forde QLD 53.0% ALP (gain)
73. Flynn QLD 52.8% ALP (gain)
74. Page NSW 52.6% ALP (gain)
75. Petrie QLD 52.3% ALP (gain)
76. Deakin VIC 52.1% ALP (gain)
______________________________ Necessary for majority
77. Bennelong NSW 51.7% ALP (gain)
78. Corangamite VIC 51.4% ALP (gain)
79. Braddon TAS 51.6% ALP (gain)
80. Hasluck WA 51.4% ALP (gain)
81. Bass TAS 51.1% ALP (gain)

[ag]

Labor super-marginals (as currently stands, some might be overturned, less than 1% swing required to overturn):

82. Solomon NT 50.8% ALP (gain?)
83. Robertson NSW 50.6% ALP (gain?)
84. LaTrobe VIC 50.3% ALP (gain?)
85. Herbert QLD 50.3% ALP (gain?)
86. Dickson QLD 50.2% ALP (gain?)
87. McEwen VIC 50.2% ALP (gain?)
88. Bowman QLD 50.2% ALP (gain?)
89. Swan WA 50.0% ALP (hold?)

[ag]

Coalition super-marginal (again, as currently stands, less than 1% swing required)

90. Macarthur NSW 50.2% LIB (hold?)
91. Sturt SA 50.6% LIB (hold?)
92. Cowper NSW 50.9% NAT (hold?)