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Good call to be taking the bleed of POC voters seriously. This will help.

He's kind of a reverse Hillary, in a way. Biden is taking the warning signs seriously and trying to do (almost) everything it takes to win, but it won't be enough because as a candidate he's just kind of doomed to lose, especially because of his age. Hillary, on the other hand, was practically guaranteed a victory had she just run an intelligent campaign using the exact same playbook Obama used against Romney, but instead she did nothing and made no attempt to respond to any issues or developments that damaged her or helped Trump.

Overall if we see ticket-splitting reduce even further from 2020 it'll be quite demoralizing because it shows "candidate quality" really doesn't matter very much at all and it's all about partisanship. It also just makes congressional politics a lot less interesting, and indirectly reduces ideological diversity in the caucuses.

Stuff like Trump + 16, Sheehy + 12 in Montana or Biden + 35, Alsobrooks + 30 in Maryland with just be so underwhelming.

It's basically two extra ridings for Northern Ontario. Concern with Indigenous representation is relatively contemporary, so it's much more to do with NO being peripheral.

Biden barely had any crowds in 2020 due to COVID precautions, and won. Clinton's crowd sizes weren't as big as Sanders, etc.

Crowd sizes are like bragging about your d*** size in politics, and I'm sure Trump is compensating for that too.

Since Biden is both taller and skinnier than Trump, statistically it's more likely than not Biden has a larger one than Trump.

bro do u like this emo band called "taking back sunday" i think its called

There's always going to be people with strange political trajectories; for instance the J6 granny who was full MAGA in 2020 and now a Biden supporter who thinks Trump is an evil threat to America. However, her story is probably not very representative of any significant subset of voters. You probably have a lot of voters with weird one-off stories like this and more common than you might expect. The best I can give is sort of a stereotype for common stories of vote flippers.



I think the general archetype for Trump'20 --> Biden'24 voters would be people who were already on edge about Trump but were pushed over the edge by J6 and his continued behavior since then. Mostly college ed - high social trust types, possibly Seniors as well. A subset of this category might also be people particularly upset about Roe v Wade being overturned - maybe a good number of parents of girls coming of age and what not.

The other archetype I can think of might be younger person who grew up in super Conservative/religious community who has moved out, an experience which ultimately changed their politics.

For Biden'20 --> Trump'24, the general archetype would be low social trust voters. I think these can fall into multiple categories (some of which overlap):

-People who got sucked into some sort of social media conspiracy theory which ultimately pulled them to the right.

-People who were very upset about the economy these past 4 years, perhaps inflated by a lot of doomery media, and see Biden as mainly responsible.

-Nonwhite voters, many of whom may have had fundamentally Conservative views for quite a while but now feel more comfortable actually voting Republican because of all the media about how Trump is gaining with non-white voters and the ability to find communities online who might share there beliefs.



Finally, I think people underrate the number of voters that just always vote for the incumbent or against the incumbent. The former is more common amongst a lot of (non-English) immigrant communities, while the latter is mostly people who fall into the low social trust and angry category.

it has been a scourge and a plague on humanity throughout the ages until louis pasteur began the process of liberating humanity from this particular viral menace

it comes to humans many times from BATS

bats = vampires

dracula/draco = SERPENT

What an odd move. Neo-Confederates aren't going to consider a guy who talked about slavery reparations.

The second Trump wins the election (if he wins, which looks increasingly likely) Netanyahu will withdraw all troops from Gaza. Biden only gave him 99% of what he wanted, and that's not enough for the most pampered, entitled country on the planet.

The fact that supposed moderates like Gantz still haven't pulled their war cabinet support to stop this madness reflects awfully on their character too. This is a very sick society.

Leftists are completely delusional about what Palestinian culture is. They think this is some indigenous, peaceful tribe like Mayan civilization in 3000 BC (of course they are wrong about this too) when you listen to some of their language. Unfortunately, reality on the ground suggests if given the capacity they would kill every Jewish person they could.

I'm sure bombing refugee camps will totally change their culture.

Both Gantz and Galland gave a three week deadline that hasn’t passed yet

Not holding my breath.

What is your solution to the conflict then? Eliminate Israel's Jewish majority?

Yeah.

End of minority rule (apartheid).

Glad you finally just came clean about the end game. You danced around it for months. Why is it that Israel gets eliminated but other countries like the Netherlands, Hungary, Romania don't? Couldn't at all be because of the country's Jewish majority? There is no minority rule because the West Bank and Gaza are to be part of a Palestinian state, not Israel.

It must be a scary prospect for Jews to be treated by Palestinians the way Palestinians are treated by Jews right now.

If you treat others the way that you want to be treated, it wouldn't be so scary when the shoe is on the other foot.

Yes, the Jews need to know what it’s like to be oppressed, they’ve never known that before

Younger Jews (who are by far more right-wing than older generations) who grow up in a relatively wealthy Israel certainly don't.

A lot of young Israeli Jews have a great-grandparent who was murdered in the Holocaust. No one needs a reminder from white leftists about how they are "not oppressed."

Larry Hogan losing, which is inevitable.