pbrower2a
Atlas Star
Posts: 26,854
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« on: August 11, 2012, 04:10:32 PM » |
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« edited: August 11, 2012, 05:55:40 PM by pbrower2a »
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Do VP's carry their states? The Favorite Son advantage is about 10% for the President -- win or lose- and it is usually reversed in all but max-out situations. The VP nominee matters far less. Lloyd Bentsen, who had firmer ties to Texas than did George H W Bush, did not help Mike Dukakis.
Let's go back a while to see whether a VP nominee could have made a difference:
YEAR nominee state Won state? DIMAD*?
2008 Biden (D) DE Y N 2008 Palin (R) AS Y N
2004 Cheney (R) WY Y N 2004 Edwards (D) NC N Y
2000 Cheney (R) WY Y N 2000 Lieberman (D) CT Y N
1996 Gore (D) TN Y N 1996 Kemp (R) NY N N
1992 Gore (D) TN Y N 1992 Quayle (R) IN Y N
1988 Quayle (R) IN Y N 1988 Bentsen (D) TX N N
1984 Bush (R) CT Y N 1984 Ferraro (D) NY N N
1980 Bush (R) CT Y N 1980 Mondale (D) MN Y N
1976 Mondale (D) MN Y N 1976 Dole (R) KS Y N *DIMAD -- Did It Make A Difference?
...the VP choice is a poor way of flipping a state. If I went back to 1968 I would show that Spiro Agnew lost in Maryland despite an electoral blowout. The one that seems to make a difference was one who lost his state -- Edwards (Kerry would have won with it).
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