Iowa Democratic County Convention Results- Where to find?? (user search)
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  Iowa Democratic County Convention Results- Where to find?? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Iowa Democratic County Convention Results- Where to find??  (Read 4003 times)
Dr. Arch
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« on: March 12, 2016, 06:12:27 PM »

Hearing Polk County flipped to Bernie. Clinton folks not happy about it, trying to challenge credentials.

If Polk flips, wouldn't that mean he wins the state by a good margin?
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1 on: March 12, 2016, 06:54:40 PM »

Worth noting: Clinton won 53.2% of Polk County in precinct caucuses, only 51.1% in county convention. Given how close the race is, it's still possible that flips the state.

Yes, if he gained 2% in Polk, he certainly won the state by a bigger margin than Clinton preliminarily won it.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #2 on: March 12, 2016, 06:59:26 PM »

Worth noting: Clinton won 53.2% of Polk County in precinct caucuses, only 51.1% in county convention. Given how close the race is, it's still possible that flips the state.

Yes, if he gained 2% in Polk, he certainly won the state by a bigger margin than Clinton preliminarily won it.
No necessarily. It depends how the rest of the county conventions and the congressional district conventions go. A lot can change.

Well, yes, that's assuming the rest of the state stays roughly the same. The different in SDEs was around 6 by the end, and 2% of Polk is way more than that.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #3 on: March 12, 2016, 07:31:02 PM »

Where is everyone following this?
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #4 on: March 12, 2016, 08:36:33 PM »

Looks like Clinton 511 County delegates to 503 for Sanders which breakss out to 115-113 state level delegates.  The state delegte equiv's appear to have been 121-105-2 on Election night. 

Wow, that's a huge change.
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Dr. Arch
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Posts: 12,453
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« Reply #5 on: March 12, 2016, 10:31:09 PM »

Looks like Clinton 511 County delegates to 503 for Sanders which breakss out to 115-113 state level delegates.  The state delegte equiv's appear to have been 121-105-2 on Election night.  

Wow, that's a huge change.

Trying to see if I can find county delegate data for Polk from Election Day to see if it would give any indication if the change had to do with more Bernie delegates showing up than Clinton ones, or if it would show that some Clinton delegates may have switched.

County Delegates elected from the Polk County precinct caucuses were 638 Clinton, 554 Sanders, 8 O'Malley (1200 total). Only 1040 delegates showed in Polk today. Based on the final count, Sanders lost 45 while Clinton lost 107.

So a net -62 for Hillary, certainly enough to swing the state should things hold relatively the same.
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