Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Barnes]

Any updates on the progress of the Italicum?

[Diouf]

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http://www.ansa.it/english/news/politics/2015/04/29/renzi-govt-passes-first-italicum-vote_84a8ad4a-ac74-44c6-bf58-530bcbc9256b.html

[Diouf]

Today's confidence vote was on article 1 of the Italicum

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http://www.ansa.it/english/news/politics/2015/04/29/factbox-article-1-of-italicum-bill_80094ceb-517c-4a8b-b4b2-ec9c132fec33.html

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The other confidence motions were carried, and the final vote on the Italicum is set for Monday.

[windjammer]

Will Lega of North keep its regions?

[Senator Cris]

Will Lega of North keep its regions?

The only North League's incumbent of this cycle is Governor Luca Zaia of Veneto, that is challenged by former MEP Alessandra Moretti, Verona Mayor Flavio Tosi and M5S's candidate Jacopo Berti.

Zaia will be supported by 5 lists: North League, Forza Italia, Brothers of Italy - National Alliance, President Zaia and Independence - We Veneto.

Moretti (the centre-left candidate) will be supported by 5 lists: Democratic Party, New Veneto (Left Ecology Freedom - Socialist Party - Greens), Civic Veneto, President Moretti for Veneto and Project Veneto Autonomo.

Tosi left the Nothern League and will be supported by 6 lists: Tosi for Veneto, Popular Area (New Centre Right - Union of the Centre), Family Pensioners, Razza Piave Veneto Stato, Veneto del fare and Project North East.

Berti will be supported by Five Stars Movement. Morosin will be supported by Indepencence. Coletti by the Other Veneto (extreme left). Sartori will be supported by New Force (extreme right).

It's an interesting race. Tosi will take some Zaia voters, but looks like that Zaia is still the favorite her. A good national environment and a strong commitment of Renzi in the campaign trail can help Moretti.
In my opinion, Zaia will win, but it will be close. I'm guessing a 1-5 points victory for the incumbent.

[Diouf]

Italicum gets final approval

http://www.ansa.it/english/news/2015/05/04/renzis-italicum-wins-final-approval_311de4a9-0966-4b1a-a988-5840def0bcc6.html



On current polls, the runoff would be between PD and M5S which would of course mean a giant victory for Renzi. The polls would probably start asking the run-off question now, but I guess that M5S would attract relatively few votes in the second round. Perhaps some anti-Renzi voters from Lega Nord, but would they even bother showing up for the run-off?
Silvio or whoever will run Forza Italia has some catching up to do if they should have a shot at making the run-off. I would still think that they would have a bigger chance of beating M5S than Lega Nord, even in its new nationwide form. Alfano just makes it pass the threshold in this poll, but it will be tight. He could face the same destiny as Fini did last time around.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

I still haven't been making much progress in my goal of actually learning about Italian politics

Could this lead to a reduction in the number of parties? Like voters would abandon smaller parties for bigger ones, and make the Big 3 more "big tent"?

[Zanas]

I still haven't been making much progress in my goal of actually learning about Italian politics

Could this lead to a reduction in the number of parties? Like voters would abandon smaller parties for bigger ones, and make the Big 3 more "big tent"?

It could, but you can always expect Italian politics to produce the unexpectable...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Well I doubt that the PD can get any more 'big tent' without becoming a marquee. At this stage the Democrats are the main centre-left, centre and centre-right party in Italy simultaneously. Italy's politics in the Second Republic were so strongly defined by your relations with Don Berlusconi, the modern PD basically encompasses everybody that disliked Silvio.

Likewise, Berlusconi and Grillo's outfits can't expand, because they are not ideological beasts; but purely wrapped up in their leaders machinations and indiosyncracies. All the 'sensible' centre-right in The Silvio Machine are now in the increasingly pathetic NCD or were swallowed up by PD, while the more ideologically coherent (non-Grillo drone) members of 5SM have long gone.

Perhaps the Northern League have room to expand, mainly due to the sensible strategy to at least partially disguise the fact they think half of Italians are inbred trash. But they are a populist right parties, and such groups have a natural ceiling that prevents them from ever being a 'big tent'.

Of the smaller parties, SEL basically have their own niche and I would be highly surprised if they were swallowed by the PD and the centrist groupings are perfectly happy to have imploded on their own and certainly don't need electoral reform to help killing them off. Brothers of Italy seems a bit more curious in what purpose it exactly serves, but they'll probably chug along.

The main consequence I feel is that it will really solidify Renzi's chance of being reelected. IN a non-runoff system Renzi will be in an impossible situation - forced to ally with one of three equally unpalatable individuals. With a straight runoff however, Renzi can quite easily cakewalk over any of them.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I've been impressed with Renzi's commitment to generally well-intentioned structural reforms and with his mastery of Italy's political process. I'm less fond of his anti-worker tendencies.

On to Senate reform?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Well I doubt that the PD can get any more 'big tent' without becoming a marquee. At this stage the Democrats are the main centre-left, centre and centre-right party in Italy simultaneously. Italy's politics in the Second Republic were so strongly defined by your relations with Don Berlusconi, the modern PD basically encompasses everybody that disliked Silvio.

Likewise, Berlusconi and Grillo's outfits can't expand, because they are not ideological beasts; but purely wrapped up in their leaders machinations and indiosyncracies. All the 'sensible' centre-right in The Silvio Machine are now in the increasingly pathetic NCD or were swallowed up by PD, while the more ideologically coherent (non-Grillo drone) members of 5SM have long gone.

Perhaps the Northern League have room to expand, mainly due to the sensible strategy to at least partially disguise the fact they think half of Italians are inbred trash. But they are a populist right parties, and such groups have a natural ceiling that prevents them from ever being a 'big tent'.

Of the smaller parties, SEL basically have their own niche and I would be highly surprised if they were swallowed by the PD and the centrist groupings are perfectly happy to have imploded on their own and certainly don't need electoral reform to help killing them off. Brothers of Italy seems a bit more curious in what purpose it exactly serves, but they'll probably chug along.

The main consequence I feel is that it will really solidify Renzi's chance of being reelected. IN a non-runoff system Renzi will be in an impossible situation - forced to ally with one of three equally unpalatable individuals. With a straight runoff however, Renzi can quite easily cakewalk over any of them.

So could we see a slight fracturing of the PD as the right-wing factions break off? Centrists too, maybe?

What's the prognosis for the future, exactly? Is PD basically going to have a long period of time in power until Berlusconi kicks the bucket and FI has to figure out what to do? Could Brothers of Italy and NCD pick off support from PD?

[Diouf]

So could we see a slight fracturing of the PD as the right-wing factions break off? Centrists too, maybe?

What's the prognosis for the future, exactly? Is PD basically going to have a long period of time in power until Berlusconi kicks the bucket and FI has to figure out what to do? Could Brothers of Italy and NCD pick off support from PD?

Well, with the current polls where PD is dead certain to be involved in the run-off, then some could speculate in voting for a smaller party in the first round to increase their representation in parliament. However, I would mostly think that it would be left-wing PDers who would vote for SEL. But there could certainly also be some centrist/centre-right versions, who could vote for NCD or a new viable centrist party to ensure that they cross the 3% threshold.

[palandio]

As long as Renzi is at the top there will be no relevant right-wing break-away from the PD, since Renzi himself is perceived as relatively right-wing (at least from a political-cultural-historical-rhetorical point of view, which matters most in the PD).

Generally the PD has proved to be surprisingly stable since its foundation, if you take into account that the PD is a cartoonishly factionalist big-tent party. An invisible force keeps them together and there has been no electorally relevant break-off. (Let's see how Pastorino fares in Liguria, but still the Civatiani and Cofferatiani are only a small faction.) An electorally relevant split would see several governors, party big-whigs and many deputies and senators leaving the party. That hasn't happened yet.

Maybe the invisible force that keeps the PD together is still Silvio. So when he finally leaves there might be a split in the middle between the center-left and centrist factions of the PD. If the centrists then unite with moderate center-right politicians we might see the rebirth of the White Whale (some sort of Neo-DC) and overall a political landscape quite similar to the First Republic. On the other hand politics in Italy have been shaped by leaderism for the past 23 years (the PD and to a lesser degree the Lega being the exception) and probably there is no way back.

Forza Italia is dying now and will not survive, the big question is what (or who?) will take its place. Keep in mind that in contemporary Italy parties come and go. (Except for probably the PD and quite likely the Lega.)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

In my mind, Italian politics may start to resemble the First Republic i.e. A large heterogenous and moderate party of government (the PD), a perpetual party of opposition that is 'too kooky' to be in power (5 stars) and a bunch of ephemeral oddballs and personL machines.

[palandio]

That seems to be a realistic scenario to me, though it's highly unlikely that 5 Stars will last for 45 years (like the PCI did) or even 20 years. In my mind, 5 Stars as it works now is highly leader dependent. And hence 'perpetual' may be the wrong expression.

[Senator Cris]

Regional Elections in 7 regions will be held on 31 May. In Tuscany, if no candidate breaks 40% there will be a runoff (very unlikely). In the other regions, a plurarity is needed to win.

* = incumbent

TUSCANY. Incumbent Governor Rossi is running for re-election. He will win without a runoff. CS SOLID.

ROSSI * (Democratic Party, Tuscan people)
GIANNARELLI (Five Stars Movement)
BORGHI (North League, Brothers of Italy - National Alliance)
FATTORI (Yes - Left)
MUGNAI (Forza Italia, Toscana League - More Toscana)
LAMIONI (Passion for Toscana - NCD-UDC)
CHIURLI (Direct Democracy)

VENETO. Incumbent Governor Zaia, a member of the North League, is running for a second term. Verona Mayor Flavio Tosi, a former member of the North League, is also running with another centre-right coalition. MEP Alessandra Moretti is the center-left candidate. Looks like Zaia will be re-elected, but a strong environment for the CS might help Moretti. LEAN CD.

ZAIA * (North League, Forza Italia, Brothers of Italy - National Alliance, President Zaia, Independence - We Veneto)
MORETTI (Democratic Party, New Veneto (Left Ecology Freedom - Socialist Party - Greens), Civic Veneto, President Moretti for Veneto,Project Veneto Autonomo)
TOSI (Tosi for Veneto, Popular Area (New Centre Right - Union of the Centre), Family Pensioners, Razza Piave Veneto Stato, Veneto del fare, Project North East)
BERTI (Five Stars Movement)
MOROSIN (Indepencence)
COLETTI (Other Veneto)

[SPQR]

Polls give Zaia a 10% lead,and in Veneto the left tends to overpoll...safe CD.

[Senator Cris]

LIGURIA. After a divisive primary, the Democratic Party's candidate is Raffaella Paita. The centre-right is united behind Giovanni Toti. Paita will be also challenged from the left by Member of Parliament Luca Pastorino, a former Democratic Party member that has the support of the left. It's probably the most interesting race. I'd say TILT CS.

PAITA (Democratic Party, 2 civic lists)
TOTI (Forza Italia, North League, Brothers of Italy - National Alliance, Popular Area (NCD-UDC))
SALVATORE (Five Stars Movement)
PASTORINO (Pastorino List, Left)
MUSSO (Free Liguria)
BRUNO (Other Liguria)
PICCARDI (Communist Party of Workers)
BATINI (Fraternity Women)

APULIA. Former Bari Mayor Michele Emiliano is the center-left candidate. The centre-right is divided here. Initially, Francesco Schittulli was the candidate of all the centre-right, but Forza Italia refused to insert Raffaele Fitto's candidates in the lists. Fitto is strong in Apulia and this move angered Schittulli, that wanted competitive lists. After a lot of controversy... Adriana Poli Bortone, a member of Brothers of Italy, is the candidate of Forza Italia, We with Salvini (The South's North League). Schittulli remained in the race and will be supported by a Fitto's list, New Centre Right, a Schittulli list and Brothers of Italy - National Alliance (that is the party of Poli Bortone). The centre-right is divided and so it's SAFE CS.

EMILIANO (Democratic Party, 3 civic lists, We at left (Left Ecology Freedom and others), Communist Party, Populars (Union of the Centre, Democratic Center, Realtà Italia), Populars for Italy)
POLI BORTONE (Forza Italia, We with Salvini, Liberal Party, National Apulia)
SCHITTULLI (Oltre with Fitto, Schittulli Movement - Popular Area (New Centre Right), Brothers of Italy - National Alliance)
LARICCHIA (Five Stars Movement)
ROSSI (Other Apulia)
RIZZI (Communist Alternative)
MARIGGIO' (Greens)

[palandio]

Ok, so I tried to find out in which lists the parties of the radical left that supported The Other Europe with Tsipras stay:

LIGURIA
SEL and majorities of PRC and PdCi seem to be in Net on the Left in support of Pastorino.
The head organiziation of Other Europe seems to support Other Liguria.

APULIA
SEL and PdCI are both running their own lists in support of Emiliano. (Thanks Cris, for making me stumble over Communist Party, because I came to find out that the PdCI [Party of the Italian Communists] has changed its name to PCdI [Communist Party of Italy], which is closer to PCI [Italian Communist Party].)
PRC is running in Other Apulia.

TUSCANY
All radical left parties in one list?

VENETO
New Veneto includes SEL and Greens, but apparently also a PRC minority faction (mainly from the chapter of Venice proper).
The PRC majority and the PCdi seem to be in Other Veneto.

UMBRIA
SEL seems to be allied with the PD.
The others seem to run as Umbria for another Europe.

[Senator Cris]

MEP Fitto is leaving Forza Italia and the EPP (European Popular Party). In the European Parliament, he will join ECR (European Conservatives and Reformists).

[FredLindq]

Which wing off the FI does he belong to?!

By the way Fitto means vagina in Swedish. So Berlusconi just got screwed by an...

[Senator Cris]

CAMPANIA. A rematch in Campania. Incumbent Governor Stefano Caldoro is running for re-election and he will be supported by the same 2012 coalition except the Union of the Centre, that is supporting Vincenzo De Luca, the 2010 centre-left candidate. De Luca was involved in a lot of controversy on the presence of a lot of candidates under investigation in his lists. I'd say LEAN CS, but a Caldoro victory is not impossible. Unlikely but still possible.

CALDORO (Forza Italia, New Centre Right, Brothers of Italy - National Alliance, Caldoro List, We South, Populars for Italy - Italian Republican Party, South League - Ausonia, 2 civic lists)
DE LUCA (Democratic Party, Union of the Centre, Democratic Centre, Italian Socialist Party, Italy of Values, Greens, 4 civic lists)
CIARAMBINO (Five Stars Movement)
VOZZA (Left at work for Campania)
ESPOSITO (Mò List)

UMBRIA. Incumbent Governor Catiuscia Marini is running for re-election to a second term. She will be challenged by Assisi Mayor Claudio Ricci, that united the centre-right behind him. Marini is not so beloved and Ricci is a strong candidate, but it's still Umbria and Marini will be re-elected. The interesting thing will be the margin of victory. LIKELY CS.

MARINI (Democratic Party, Left Ecology Freedom - The Left for Umbria, Socialists and Reformer, Civic and Popular Umbria)
RICCI (Forza Italia, North League, Brothers of Italy - National Alliance, Popular Umbria, President Ricci, Change in Umbria with Ricci)
LIBERATI (Five Stars Movement)
DE PAULIS (Reformist Alternative)
VECCHIETTI (Umbria for another Europe)
FABIANI (Communist Party of Workers)
DI STEFANO (Sovereignty)
MAIORCA (New Force)

MARCHE. Incumbent Governor Gian Mario Spacca was elected in 2010 with a centre-left coalition, but now he is running for re-election with the support of Forza Italia, Popular Area and his list because of some problems with the local Democratic Party. The Democratic Party is running Pesaro Mayor Luca Ceriscioli. North League and Brothers of Italy - National Alliance are running a different candidate. SAFE CS (DEMOCRATIC PARTY)

CERISCIOLI (Democratic Party, United for Marche, Populars - Union of the Centre)
SPACCA (Forza Italia, Marche 2000-Popular Area, Christian Democracy)
MAGGI (Five Stars Movement)
ACQUAROLI (Brothers of Italy - National Alliance, North League)
MENTRASTI (Other Marche - Left United)

[Andrea]

Bolzano mayoral election run off


Luigi Spagnoli (PD-SVP; incumbent since 2005) 57.7%
Alessandro Urzì (Forza Italia) 42.3%

turnout 40.7%

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sorry for my absence! I would really have wanted to chronicle the battle over electoral reform in this thread. But I see you guys have done a pretty good job on your own.

Anyway, it's really an interesting time to be following Italian politics. Things have been changing really fast, and in ways that really seem insane when you look back. So yeah, Italy finally has a workable electoral system - well, half of it, since until the Constitutional reform still has a loooong way to go. On the other hand, Renzi has really started playing with fire with his latest moves. His opponents within the PD are really up in arms, nearly all the former power brokers in the party have voted against the electoral reform. Civati has left the party following the vote, and Fassina threatens to follow suit.

Now Renzi's priority is the reform of the school system, another thing that the left (and especially the labor unions) isn't quite fond of. I'm embarrassingly unaware of the specifics of his proposed reform, but, if TV debates are any indication, the heart of it seems to be pouring more money into the system, partly to rebuild the many severely damaged buildings, and partly to hire new teachers. Concurrently however, it would give very large powers to school principals, something which many teachers fear. Honestly, I can't have an opinion without knowing more detail. Politically however, this reform might really hurt Renzi further on his left. Now that Berlusconi is back to full opposition, his majority is fairly narrow in the Senate, and a few defections from the PD's left might potentially bring the government down. Renzi is known for taking big risks and always coming out on top, but this time he might want to be a bit more cautious.