Canadian by-elections, 2013

[RogueBeaver]

Giambrone seeking the Dipper nomination in SG.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well in regards to a strong NDP candidate in EL and SG, we shall see tonight.

I have to agree with DL & Hatman; the NDP normally are behind on nominating for stated and maybe other factors as well. But nominating two days after the writ, and maybe a week after the members stepped down shows the NDP has managed to rebuild in some ridings they once were competitive in but since 95 and 03 were obliterated to some degree... since 03 the party was basically trying to just keep itself a float to hold what they had, with a limited target list (no more then 5) up until the last federal when that party did well above expectations.
 
I have been impressed with the candidates that have been presented so far; Fife in KW (who won we all know) but also Hatfield, Sattler, Mackenzie (in Ottawa Centre) Funiciello. The Quality in candidates is there, and we've been seeing that improvement since the last election.

I think the NDP will put most of its resources in WT and LW, those poll numbers prove that its battles the NDP can win. Especially since all (most) the news coverage around Coran has been negative.

Hatman; how are the tories perceived in the ottawa area? they hold two ridings, the suburban ones. But are they as "toxic" as they are here in the 416? could the NDP in OS pull more from that populist, potential tory voter or are the Liberals just that entrenched in Ottawa?

No one cares about provincial politics here. It's why the Liberals and Tories can withstand a lot of Toronto negativity. Having said that, I think the Liberals have taken a bit of a hit thanks to the recent scandals. No one knows anything about Hudak, good or bad. So, Tories are going to vote Tory and all that.

Giambrone seeking the Dipper nomination in SG.

Woo! Another star candidate. Good news.

[lilTommy]

Wow, i'm honestly surprised to see Giambrone running in Guildwood; I think that came out of left (pun!) field. I agree with the articule, i think its Giambrone trying to get back into political life after a stupid mistake he made in 2010 that will haunt him. He's owning it though and thats good to see, but it will come up in the election if he wins. He's by far the biggest name in that SG race... but is that enough to help him win? He does have a good record on council so... i think this is a huge score for the NDP "if" he wins.

Ok, in Etobicoke-Lakeshore the NDP have nominated Pak-Cheong Choo as their candidate. He was the NDP candidate in Markham-Unionville in 2011, get this, he was formerly a Public School Trustee with the Etobicoke Board of Education. He is also a governor the University of Toronto.

http://www.elndp.com/1/post/2013/07/pc-choo-selected-to-represent-etobicoke-lakeshore-ndp.html

Star? he has a good CV, and again the NDP has gone with a candidate who has experience as a Trustee, but i say he lacks a star name, and to me doesn't seem like a strong local candidate. But sounds good on paper. To get noticed he's going to have to make some waves

[Hatman 🍁]

His name isn't Ford, so I suppose that's a plus.

Only a few more hours until our nomination. I will be attending, and will be "live tweeting" the happenings.

[DL]

If people are OK with having a mayor who is a crack cocaine addict, its hard to see why it was ever even an issue that Adam Giambrone...gasp...had sex!

[lilTommy]

If people are OK with having a mayor who is a crack cocaine addict, its hard to see why it was ever even an issue that Adam Giambrone...gasp...had sex!

I actually think he should have just stuck it out and ran; he also just should have admitted he slept with her, common he was like in his early 30s and not yet married (engaged though). People can be forgiving of sex scandals since they aren't reflective of your work or your ability to "perform" in your role (Clinton).
I think the issue was he lied about it, more then the act of it.

[lilTommy]

I can't believe i am going to beat Hatman to this...

Ottawa Public School Board Vice-Chair, Bronwyn Funiciello, Wins Ontario NDP Nomination in Ottawa South

[Hatman 🍁]

I can't believe i am going to beat Hatman to this...

Ottawa Public School Board Vice-Chair, Bronwyn Funiciello, Wins Ontario NDP Nomination in Ottawa South

I was there! If you were following me on Twitter, you would have seen I was the first to report it. (I basically wrote the message before the announcement, and hit send on my cellphone when it was made )

I'm thinking Wali lost badly. He had a large contingent at the meeting (signs, etc - but more obviously the high Somali turnout) but none of them could vote. I knew right away when they all left the room when voting took place that he was going to lose.

[DC Al Fine]

I can't believe i am going to beat Hatman to this...

Ottawa Public School Board Vice-Chair, Bronwyn Funiciello, Wins Ontario NDP Nomination in Ottawa South

I was there! If you were following me on Twitter, you would have seen I was the first to report it. (I basically wrote the message before the announcement, and hit send on my cellphone when it was made )

I'm thinking Wali lost badly. He had a large contingent at the meeting (signs, etc - but more obviously the high Somali turnout) but none of them could vote. I knew right away when they all left the room when voting took place that he was going to lose.

Were they non-citizens or is Wali the worst political organizer ever?

[lilTommy]

I can't believe i am going to beat Hatman to this...

Ottawa Public School Board Vice-Chair, Bronwyn Funiciello, Wins Ontario NDP Nomination in Ottawa South

I was there! If you were following me on Twitter, you would have seen I was the first to report it. (I basically wrote the message before the announcement, and hit send on my cellphone when it was made )

I'm thinking Wali lost badly. He had a large contingent at the meeting (signs, etc - but more obviously the high Somali turnout) but none of them could vote. I knew right away when they all left the room when voting took place that he was going to lose.

Were they non-citizens or is Wali the worst political organizer ever?

I saw your Facebook msgs though (don't do twitter); I didn't know both of them were African? we'll he sounds somali, but i'm guessing Bronwyn is south african? or Zimbabwean?

You also said there were many out of riding attendees, that could be why he lost too, his supporters were all from out of riding. Well to his defence he had what, two weeks maybe to get members signed for voting. I would also say a good chunk and probably non-citizens too

[Hatman 🍁]

Bronwyn's family is from South Africa, yes.

Ottawa South has a large Somali community, so they were probably residents of the riding. But, the nomination was announced too soon for anyone to register to vote. Remember, *I* could not even vote. So, let's not blame Wali for this. I mean, he did well to get as many out to just be *at* the nomination. A lot of people in the immigrant community are not very politically active, remember.

[adma]

The optics of Giambrone parachuting himself into Guildwood look *awfully* dicey to me--yeah, he's Giambrone, and Guildwood isn't necessarily NDP-unwinnable; but still, he's Giambrone, and it's Guildwood.

(Then again, Dr. Bob Frankford, another parachuter from downtown, was the Scarborough East victor in 1990.  But again--1990.  And it was the accidental, non-indigenous Frankfords that explain why the Rae gov't was doomed--then again, he still managed to squeak over the Liberals in his 1995 re-election bid, somehow.)

[lilTommy]

The optics of Giambrone parachuting himself into Guildwood look *awfully* dicey to me--yeah, he's Giambrone, and Guildwood isn't necessarily NDP-unwinnable; but still, he's Giambrone, and it's Guildwood.

(Then again, Dr. Bob Frankford, another parachuter from downtown, was the Scarborough East victor in 1990.  But again--1990.  And it was the accidental, non-indigenous Frankfords that explain why the Rae gov't was doomed--then again, he still managed to squeak over the Liberals in his 1995 re-election bid, somehow.)

I can't argue with the optics; but lets not kid ourselves, many by-elections have candidates who are handpicked and parachuted in to win. PLUS Giambrone actually had to win the nomination, which you can't say for any of the Liberal candidates who (i believe) were all acclaimed or appointed. All the NDP nominations were contested (maybe not Windsor-Tecumseh, i can't remember)

[Hatman 🍁]

Guildwood nomination is tomorrow I think. And IIRC the nomination in Tecumseh was contested. Great news for the NDP, for sure. I can't see there being a contested race in Ottawa South come the general election, though.

[eggo31]

Amarjeet Kaur Chhabra is the other candidate seeking the Scarborough-Guildwood nomination, besides Giambrone. The nomination meeting is indeed tomorrow. I will try and attend.

[DL]

What do you mean "he lied about it"? An "affair" is by definition a lie and in any case why should he have to tell a Toronto Star reporter about his sex life? Its an issue between him and his fiance...and since they got married a few months later - she obviously forgave him. I really don't understand what the justifiaction is for prying in to a politicians private life like that? There are plenty of "adulterers" in Stephen harper's cabinet (hello Vic Toews) why should Adam Giambrone be held to a higher standard than they are?

If people are OK with having a mayor who is a crack cocaine addict, its hard to see why it was ever even an issue that Adam Giambrone...gasp...had sex!

I actually think he should have just stuck it out and ran; he also just should have admitted he slept with her, common he was like in his early 30s and not yet married (engaged though). People can be forgiving of sex scandals since they aren't reflective of your work or your ability to "perform" in your role (Clinton).
I think the issue was he lied about it, more then the act of it.

[Hatman 🍁]

Scarborough-Guildwood nomination meeting happening now...

[Hatman 🍁]

Giambrone wins. Surprise, surprise.

[lilTommy]

... Lets see if he can win the by-election now, I don't think the Liberals counted on this one.

But lets look at this; Star candidates...
-Ottawa South - Bronwyn Funiciello NDP, no contest.
-Scar.Guildwood - Adam Giambrone NDP, but you could argue that Mitzie Hunter OLP, CEO of CivicAction is a second-tier star
-E-L - Tie, Milzcyn OLP and Holyday PC, Choo is strong, but i don't know if he would be a second-tier "star" candidate
-London West - I'm going Tie again, Ken Coran OLP and Peggy Sattler NDP. Oddly enough the PC candidate leads.
-Windsor-Tecumseh - Percy Hadfield NDP, no contest.

The PCs got caught having to run mediocre candidates who won nominations in the spring except in E-L, where they lucked out with their candidate pulling out. The OLP has a good crop of candidates, particularly in SG & EL. I think they were hoping Coran would play better but hasn't yet. But seem to have rather weak-mediocre candidates in OS and WT. The NDP, to my surprise and in my opinion, has the best list of candidates of all the parties. In each riding they have chosen a strong (even PK Choo in EL is sting on paper) candidate.

Can having the arguably strongest candidates in SG, LW and OS help them win ridings they traditionally rank third in?

[Hatman 🍁]

Bronwyn is the strongest possible candidate the NDP could have ever hoped for in Ottawa South, and they will still lose.

[adma]

And Giambrone, like Coran, might well turn out to be the worst kind of "best candidate"--even if, unlike Coran, he might wind up gaining share for his party.  Then again, and rather incredibly, he might *not*...

[DL]

London West was originally supposed to be a safe OLP seat. Bentley took 48% of the vote there in 2011 and beat the Tory by 20 points. The OLP ought to be be able to win it easily with a low risk, low reward candidate (ie: some dull middle aged Kiwanis Club president). With Coran they they are taking a huge risk.

In contrast the NDP has nothing to lose in Scarborough-Guildwood. they have never come close to winning there and were a distant third there in the last election. Giambrone is a "risky" candidate - but what has the NDP got to lose? They have no chance of winning there anyways so why not at least have a candidate who can attract some media attention and put out some interesting policy ideas.

[Hatman 🍁]

If Anthony Weiner can lead polls in NYC, why can't Giambrone get some credit?

BTW Twitter said the nomination race was pretty close, but NDP nominations are like papal conclaves in terms of secrecy.

[DL]

If Anthony Weiner can lead polls in NYC, why can't Giambrone get some credit?

BTW Twitter said the nomination race was pretty close, but NDP nominations are like papal conclaves in terms of secrecy.

There probably weren't very many votes cast in the first place. I was told there were only about 100 paid up NDP members in Guidwood and only some subset of them would have been at the meeting - I was not there but i will take a wild guess that the electorate was probably made up of no more than 60-70 people.

[Hatman 🍁]

That's still more than double the Ottawa South NDP voters!