The Atlasian Sentinel

[Maxwell]

I would like an interview with Governor Wolfentoad.

[Maxwell]

The Sentinel can project Senators HagridoftheDeep and Matt from VT have won reelection. Congratulations Senators.

Isn't Matt still in fourth place?

Right, but on the second ballot, due to how much Hagrid is over the quota and how many people who voted Hagrid second preferenced Matt, Matt gets swept in as well.

[Maxwell]

Eh, it depends on how big the quota is though. And who knows what Labor's stange "final push" strategy will be like?

True, right now the Quota is 15.

[Maxwell]

How do you count the quota again?  If there are 4 slots, you divide the total votes cast not exhausted less one by 5 no?

Quota is [Number of votes/(Number of seats+1)]+1

[Maxwell]

70% Turnout and the night is still not done seems like very good turn out for the IDS election.

[Maxwell]

I'm confused, I though Matt was a lock to win?  Don't Hagrid's second preferences transfer to him or does that not matter much for some reason?

Hagrid is first person elected, but the surplus he had before has effectively been neutralized, and that's what Matts early win was based on.

[Maxwell]

I'm confused, I though Matt was a lock to win?  Don't Hagrid's second preferences transfer to him or does that not matter much for some reason?

Hagrid is first person elected, but the surplus he had before has effectively been neutralized, and that's what Matts early win was based on.

I have never had the firmest understanding of how the surplus thing works (how could it be neutralized?), hence my default pessimism about my chances in any given election.  Could someone please elaborate for me?

We seem to do a messier version of this, but...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single_transferable_vote#Counting_the_votes

This is how I understand it.

[Maxwell]

58 voters in the first 12 hours! That's incredible.

I believe its a tie.

27-27-4, which turns 29-28 in the final round.

[Maxwell]

pizzavoters?

[Maxwell]

pizzavoters?

There are two forum members with 'pizza' in their name - I guess it's the closest thing to the 'Snows' that you guys could have. Only one is registered in Atlasia, though.

Ah now I see the theme.

[Maxwell]

Velasco first pref'd Fuzzy.

[Maxwell]

I think voters outstanding look better for Polnut, but I still hope.

[Maxwell]

Regions don't seem very narrow: I lead in the Midwest (64-36) and the Mideast (65-35) by almost as big margins as Polnut leads in the Pacific (69-31) and the Northeast (65-35). Strangely, the closest region in the final round is the IDS (57-43 Polnut)

[Maxwell]

I think this will end up 53-47 or 54-46, right below a ten point margin. I'm glad it's even that close to be honest.

[Maxwell]

With 30 minutes left, Polnut has a 10 point lead. Looks like Nappy was right, if barely.

[Maxwell]

While that's true ZuWo, a lot of the Presidential polling in June was fairly accurate.

[Maxwell]

Glad to be on.

[Maxwell]

The Atlasian Sentinel

Numbers Game: Why can't Federalists win?
By Maxwell

I was looking at the numbers from the last two elections, and I found out some pretty fascinating things when we look at them. First off, both elections had something in common in terms of the candidates: a strong, popular Labor candidate, an also very popular, very strong ticket on the Federalist side, and a run from National Mustafinist Movement that did numbers beyond expectations. However there were some chronic differences.

First, we look at Liberal Support: Despite Nix picking Attorney General DemPGH as his VP, his support amongst liberals fell to historic lows. Perhaps as a response to Nix's 3 regions proposal, perhaps as a response to Nix's not so disapproving tone toward the NMAM, Matt managed to intersect over 40% of support amongst Liberals. Comparing that to the Senate run, Liberals swung hard to Polnut, who took a more pro-regionalist tone in the race. However, it showed something that has changed: Liberals, the former powerhouse party, is now a group of voters who are more prone to being an important swinging group. And boy, do they swing! This group went 75% for Polnut, compared to 57% for Nix.

Another factor that was important in Polnut's larger win was Independents and others. Matt/Maxwell won that group by 13 points. A larger win in that group may be required for a Federalist win in the future, as this is a group that I won narrowly over Polnut (52-48). This is also a group where turnout could be fairly variable, so one would have to push these voters hard in order to win. Others and Independents had some of the highest turn out rates of the last Presidential election (81% and 89% respectively) and some of the lowest turn out of the Special Election (40% and 67% respectively).

Finally a bit on the regional turnout. IDS sank in this election from 75% turnout to 60% turnout. IDS has been, historically, the most right-wing region, but with lower turnout, Labor in that region seems more dedicated, and as a result Polnut won the region. Midwest had a similar swinging effect, with lower turnout, became fairly ripe for Federalists, as I won my home region. That maybe a home effect, which would be a reason for Federalists to start running strong regional candidates, but that strays from the point. Federalists could stress turnout in the IDS.

At the end of this article, I notice many areas where Federalists can improve their standing, but it also is tough when Labor puts out great candidates. It seems like a reality that when a good Labor candidate goes against a good Federalist candidate, Labor wins. However, if Federalists push their pro-regionalist qualifications, gets Others/Independents to the voting booth, and pushes the IDS-ers to vote, than a Federalist can win.

[Maxwell]

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[Maxwell]

The Atlasian Sentinel

Exclusive: Xahar Interivew
By Maxwell

I shouldn't have to say it, but Xahar is one of the most reviled, divisive, and yet well known and interesting figures in Atlasia history. He has always been an outsider of the big tent parties, running as a veritable perennial candidate for many years. His profile has grown some with the growing numbers of NMAM. He had asked me for an interview for a while, and I had forgotten to act on it, and I regret that decision. We had an interesting discussion on issues that bear much importance to his recent and past experience, including the Pacific Rimjob operation, Regional Issues, and the Senate.

Max: You've been a member of Atlasia for a long time, have you always had the views that you have now? And if not, what's changed in your mind set that has pushed you to oppose the regional system?

Xahar: I have always been in favor of reform in a general sense. I joined Atlasia during the Wixted-Jas administration, the last government that Atlasia has had that was able to substantively improve the structure of the game; it's impossible to imagine now in a time when the game is dominated by knee-jerk reactionaries, but back then it was possible to actually propose constructive changes and see them implemented. Naturally as a newbie I bought into that reformist attitude, and it has persisted to this day.

Another factor is the amount of time I've been around. If you look at people with similar radical views as those I hold, you'll find that the proportion that have been in the game for many years is far greater than in the general population. The correlation is obvious. After spending a few years in this game, nobody with any imagination at all is ever opposed to change, because being in the game for that length of time confers perspective and allows an Atlasian to see that the way we do things isn't necessarily the right way to do things. That has certainly had an effect on me.

The concept of "regional rights" has been a target of mine ever since it was invented by DownWithDaLeft back in 2008 when he changed the name of his Southern Secession Party to the Regional Protection Party. He was an horrible person who created a moronic cause to give himself legitimacy, and he gathered around him a truly disgusting circle of intimates. They didn't like me, and I didn't like them, particularly not after they rallied half of Atlasia to their side. It didn't hurt that opposing "regional rights" has always been common sense from a gameplay standpoint.

Max: Many have seen that Marokai's appointment of you to as Pacific Emergency Manager has started the Operation Rimjob movement. Would you say that's accurate, or were the roots of the operation long before that?

Xahar: That's accurate, yes. Remember that I moved to the region less than an hour before my appointment. If anything, the operation started after that; when I was appointed, we didn't yet have a concrete plan, although there were plenty of ideas being tossed around. More than anything, what we relished was the opportunity that the Pacific Constitution afforded us.

Max: As Pacific Speaker, some have noted your tendency to push legislation through without much or any time for debate. Is this a tactic that, if you somehow gained Yankee's position, you would undertake?

Xahar: No, of course not. The first thing I have to say in response to this is that I would never seek that position, nor would I accept it if it were thrust upon me. The Senate now has become a mess of ad hoc procedure jury-rigged by North Carolina Yankee, and none of it works. If I compare it to the way the Senate was when it was in the hands of Verily (still the best President pro tempore that I have ever seen), the difference is staggering. North Carolina Yankee's Senate today possesses committees with no discernible function and a queue that is a mile long and there are only two people who know how it works: North Carolina Yankee and Bacon King. I have no desire to become the third.

With regard to the Pacific Council, obviously the mood is much different than in the Senate. It is a small body, and as a result I have been friends with most of the people who have passed through the Council in my time. What this means is that discussion happens through informal channels as a matter of course, and by the time a bill is written it already has the support of a majority of the chamber. There is no legislative benefit in putting the Council through the same miasma of procedure that pollutes the Senate, and I have no intention to do it just for show.

Max: You are one of the more interesting characters in Atlasia history, and are definitely one of the most divisive characters. This sounds like a softball question, and it is, but why is that the case?

Xahar: To answer that question, I have to go back to the beginning. When I registered in Atlasia in October of 2007, I naturally chose to register in the Pacific Region. The Pacific was at the time and for many years after controlled by the Jesus Christ Party, which was nonexistent outside the region. I was never a member of the party, and I soon earned its enmity, the result of which was that I ran for elective office over and over and never won. By 2010 I had essentially given up entirely any ambitions I once had to hold elective office and rise through the ranks, and I continue to lack interest in such things today. Because I lack the obsession with winning votes that so many Atlasians have, I have the opportunity to say and do things that others are too scared to say or do. Naturally not everyone is on board with that, and that is what has made me divisive. I have never had any problem with that; if you're not making people angry, you're not doing anything worth doing.

Max: Do you approve of President Nix's handling of the the Presidency so far, and in particular, what do you think of his plan to reduce regions from 5 to 3. Is that not enough?

Xahar: Obviously my preference would be for the Attorney General to be replaced in that position by a literate Atlasian, but otherwise the President's job performance has been satisfactory. The replacement of the five regions with three regions is less than ideal and I worry that it would put serious reform off the table, but it's certainly preferable to the status quo, and I would vote for it if presented with the opportunity.


Max: You've challenged everyone in the political area on even the idea of regions. My question for you is, what is your ideal Atlasian Government, and why would it work better than what we currently have?

Xahar: My purpose in my activism has never been to impose my own personal ideal government on the game, and it's important that people realize that. The fact is that allegiance to the five-region setup so completely smothers discussion of any possible alternatives that we have to move beyond that before people are willing to even come up with any alternatives. I would certainly be glad to hear all the alternative ideas that people might have.

For my part, I would not be averse to a semi-presidential system with a much larger legislature than the one we have now. The concept of bicameralism has been mooted in the past; I have no strong opinion either way on that matter, but it is worth considering.

Max: On committees. You gave a pointed criticism of Yankee's committee system. Would you abolish committees all together, if not, how would you think to improve their function?

Xahar: I would get rid of them altogether. I remember well the way the Senate functioned before committees existed, and I see the Senate now and see that the committees have improved nothing. All they do is add an extra layer of bureaucracy; how many Atlasians even know what the committee system accomplishes? It's all fundamentally unnecessary, and I suspect it's based on a misguided desire to make Atlasia just like the real world.

Max: On to Operation Pacific Rimjob. I don't want to get into the nitty gritty details, a lot of that information has been revealed or already discussed but the question I have is do you think it was successful? It's a kind of a broad question, I'll admit, but it's a question of your own goals with the project.

Xahar: In a lot of important ways, I think it has been, yes. It got a genuine dialogue going about the fundamental workings of the game, and as a result we have seen that most Atlasians support a reduction in the number of regions. In my opinion, that would be a very positive change, and it wouldn't have happened without the activities in the Pacific bringing the matter to the forefront. In a more general sense, it has brought a lot of people back into the game in a way that they weren't before it happened; I'm sure you remember how remarkably dead the game was a couple months ago. It isn't anymore, and that's because there's something worth talking about in Atlasia now. Aside from that, I won't deny that it was a lot of fun to put one over on everyone in Atlasia. It took a lot of skill to pull off that operation, and I'm certainly proud of it.

Max: Finally, you and your running mate Hashemite noted a displeasure with the questioning of the debates at hand when you were in the midsts of the Presidential election. What question do you wish to be asked at the Debate that will begin on Monday?

Xahar: Obviously there's more to discuss in Atlasia than the game itself (although that should always be a matter of great importance), but my issue is with so much time being spent on things that are already settled in Atlasia. Education is a huge mess and I don't think anything productive can come of it, but with that exception I'd be happy to talk about anything that the Senate has to deal with.

Max: Thank you for the Interview Xahar.

Xahar: I'm glad to have had the opportunity.

[Maxwell]

This is a part of my catch-up program. I still have interviews with President Nix and SoEA Talleyrand to get to, but I want this spaced out, so polling data/analysis would be next if anything.

[Maxwell]

The Atlasian Sentinel

An Early Look: Mideast Gubernatorial Race
By Maxwell


Governor ZuWo reading announced changes to the regional constitution

Governor ZuWo is known by some to be a conflicting and divisive figure, certainly one of the most right-wing figures of Atlasia, and partly why his opponent, Tmthforu94, beat him for his first re-election. Yet, he remained popular in the region, and managed to win election again to the Governorshp with a mandate over his opponent, Lieutenant Governor Clinton1996. Since then, he has governed in a cooperative manner, pushing for high speed rail, and making bi-partisan changes to the constitution. However, some polls had shown his approval to be fairly weak (at some points, as low as 33%), so there was a question of whether he would lose again in an re-election attempt?

Super Polling Center Poll Results:
Governor ZuWo - 53%
Assemblyman shua - 40%
Undecided - 7%

Governor ZuWo - 53%
Assemblyman Njall - 40%
Undecided - 7%

Governor ZuWo - 60%
Fmr. Senate Candidate Siren - 27%
Undecided - 13%

Well the first polling for that race show hope for the Governor. Super Polling Center shows that ZuWo leads each of his opponents by at least 13 points, and all of them with over 50%. He leads Mideast Assemblymen shua and Njall 53-40. Meanwhile, he defeats Former Senate Candidate Siren by over 30 (60-27), resembling more his victory of Clinton1996. However, one can''t be so sure: Atlasia polls have a notorious amount of error, and as a result, the race could be more competitive than it looks on the outside. Nevertheless, it is safe to say that, the odds are in favor of the incumbent Governor.

[Maxwell]

I'll do the first Sentinel count after we cross 50 votes.