Minneapolis vs Detroit/Milwaukee

[Axel Foley]

Or better said, their respective counties.

The Big Three in the Upper Midwest followed different patterns this cycle, with Minneapolis on one side and the other two on the opposite...Detroit/Wayne County: turnout down, Trump gains in Eastern and Southern part of the county and a nearly 10 point( 91k votes) swing in his direction in a State he won by less than 11k; Milwaukee County: slight swing to Clinton in the overall percentage, but turnout went down even bigger than the Michigan counterpart and her margin of victory in the county fell by 15k in a State she lost by 22,000 ; Minneapolis/Hennepin County: turnout was about identical as 2012, and Clinton margin improved Obama's by 55,000...she won the State by 45,000 , so it is safe to assume that had Minneapolis gone in a similar way to Detroit and Milwaukee, well, Trump would have inevitably been the first Republican to win Minnesota since Nixon '72...and it wasn't only Minneapolis city that swung in her direction, but also the rest of the county, even the Republican areas...the difference with Wayne County( and its swing to Trump outside Detroit) is really clear, while on Milwaukee side was all about the turnout.

So, what are the fundamental differences between them that caused these divergent patterns? Demography? Better Dem ground game in Minneapolis? Cultural/economical reasons? Voter registration laws?

[Fuzzy Bear]

Hennepin County, MN, is gaining in population, and is getting blacker.  In no small part, this is due to the influx of Somali immigrants.  Minneapolis is the WHITEST major city in America; it always has been (only 4.4% black in 1970).  Minneapolis has never had the racial tensions that Detroit and Milwaukee has had and Hennepin County has never had the racial tensions between city and suburbs that Wayne County and Milwaukee County had when school busing and school integration was a major issue.

What is going on in Wayne County and Milwaukee County is not WHITE flight; that happened years ago.  What is happening is BLACK flight; black families who are able to do so have left the inner cities for suburbs, and not all of those suburbs are in Wayne or Milwaukee Counties.  Detroit has grown blacker (around 82% now) but it's city population has dropped dramatically. 

All of this points to a shifting of where Democratic votes come from.  It also plays a role in how Democratic or how Republican the voters in the suburbs are.