Era of the New Majority

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2022

Oregon

OR-Gov: Greg Walden at long last makes the jump from the House after redistricting (more on that below) and runs for Governor of Oregon, clearing the GOP field completely and setting him up as the best Republican candidate in decades. Kate Brown, term-limited, leaves behind a varied field - US Reps. Tina Kotek and Chris Edwards both jump in, as does Treasurer Ted Wheeler. Wheeler and Edwards split the moderate vote in the primary, with Wheeler doing well in the Portland suburbs while Edwards does better in the outstate, while Kotek dominates the liberal vote by charging hard to the left. She cleans up in Portland and on Edwards' Eugene turf, winning a narrow three-way race and making a serious case for runoffs in Oregon elections.

Brown's declining popularity in Oregon after struggling with ethics problems and then pushing through some very ambitious (and expensive) liberal pet causes like a vastly hiked minimum wage, a reintroduction of the sales tax (while slashing the income and property taxes outside of Portland, angering many liberals), mandatory vacation time, stricter environmental controls and much stricter gun control laws drags on Kotek, who is arguably even more liberal. With so much achieved in Brown's second term, Kotek has a hard time arguing what exactly she hopes to accomplish, which plays into Walden's hands as he runs a low-key, Moderate Hero campaign. Kotek and Democrats attack him for his time in the GOP House leadership. Though in debates Walden seems unsure of how to respond to these attacks, his efforts to appeal to younger voters and suburbanites pay off as he narrowly defeats Kotek 49-48 in one of the closest elections in Oregon history, becoming Oregon's first GOP Governor since Victor Atiyeh almost forty years earlier. R+1.

OR-Sen: Another wild and woolly election, with a primary just as nasty as the one on the Governor's side. Ron Wyden retires after 42 years in Congress as one of Oregon's most respected statesmen behind Morse and Hatfield. Governor Brown enters the primary for Senate and is thought to have locked the race up when young US Rep. Brent Barton enters the race to run as a moderate. He begins to chip away at Brown's lead by questioning ethics concerns that led to her unpopularity outside of the most ardent Democrats.

Barton is accused of liberal groups of fearmongering and running a "right-wing, bigoted campaign," which backfires when Barton rolls out a list of endorsements from progressive figures, including a massive blow to Brown when he receives the backing of both Wyden and Jeff Merkley. Barton scores one of the biggest upsets in recent political history when he narrowly wins the primary, defeating a sitting Governor and progressive darling through his canny campaign and courting of more moderate voters. Republicans, who had not recruited anyone of Walden's caliber for Senate, fail to knock out Barton with State Senator Tim Knopp. D Hold.



OR 1: Suzanne Bonamici winds up being the only House incumbent to run for reelection in Oregon in 2022, making her the sudden Dean of the Delegation after Walden's retirement. She wins reelection with little issue.

OR 2: Longtime House Minority Leader Mike McLane is elected to replace Greg Walden in this open seat.

OR 3: Tina Kotek is replaced by Jessica Vega-Pederson, a State Senator, who wins the rambunctious Portland primary.

OR 4: With Chris Edwards leaving office to seek the Governor's mansion, Val Hoyle consolidates the Democratic vote in this district. In one of the biggest upsets of the cycle, Hoyle is defeated by political novice and Roseburg businessman Tony Cooney, who wins by 114 votes. R+1.

OR 5: This is a district in which none of the previous incumbents sat, centered on Salem and the Oregon coast. Democrat Sara Gelser clears the field thinking that she has the race locked up, only to be surprised late in the campaign by the hard-charging Larry George, a long-time political figure in this area who had once served in the State Senate and the Chairman of Common Sense Oregon, a conservative pressure group. In the Tossup district, George ekes out a 51-48 victory over Gelser, who responds to his run far too late. R+1.

OR 6: This is a new district where both Greg Walden and Brent Barton would have wound up, and both jumped out of the race thinking the other man might run. State Rep. Shemia Fagan wins on the Democratic side, setting her up to face Republican Mark Johnson, who pledges to serve no more than three terms if elected. In another Oregon swing district, Republicans manage to continue their unexpectedly dominant night in the Beaver State by picking up the brand-new district as Johnson wins 50-49. R+1.

OR Legislature: The sharp swing to the right predicted for Oregon for years continues downballot, as Democrats lose three Senate seats to effect a tie with the GOP at 15-15. In the House, Democrats lose seven seats to drop to a 31-29 majority, winning Seat #31 in the Salem area by less than 50 votes.

All in all, 2022 is one of the worst nights in the history of the Oregon Democratic Party.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2022

Alaska

AK-Gov: Bill Walker is term-limited after two terms, being the first Governor since Tony Knowles to serve two full terms/be elected to two full terms in his own right and only the third Alaska Governor to ever achieve it. There is buzz on the Republican side about Sean Parnell making a comeback, but he chooses to seek the House seat instead (more on that below). Instead, Lisa Murkowski enters the fray to run for the office once held by her father, Frank. Mead Treadwell enters the race to try to defeat Murkowski, regarded as insufficiently conservative by the right wing of the Alaska GOP, but is crushed in the primary. Democrats, regarding this race as a lost cause once it is clear that Murkowski has the election effectively won, do not run any serious candidate. R+1.

AK-Sen: This freed-up seat is initially expected to attract all kinds of potential candidates, but the field is largely cleared by the entrance of US Rep. Lance Pruitt. Democrats decide not to field a candidate as they coalesce behind Bill Walker after Mark Begich decides not to run, with the sense being that he can see the writing on the wall. In another "unity ticket" race, with Walker running as the de facto Democrat, Pruitt manages to win by appealing to moderate Republicans and building on his terrific outreach efforts in swingy Anchorage and rural Native reservations. Pruitt defeats Walker 56-43, R Hold.

AK-House: Parnell initially is seen as the clear frontrunner until perennial candidate Joe Miller, in his now-decade long quest to reach Congress, enters the race. Though Parnell has a serious cash advantage and establishment support, Miller manages to narrowly edge the uninspiring former Governor in yet another election upset with a late surge after two other candidates drop out and endorse him. Miller's stunning 49-48 win over Parnell shakes the Alaska political landscape 12 years after his titanic upset of Murkowski, who on the same night is blowing out Treadwell. Anchorage Mayor Ethan Berkowitz, who had entered the race on the suspicion that both Miller and Parnell were sub-par Republican offerings, runs close to the polarizing Miller in an Alaska that is growing and has shifted left over the years, but in a GOP wave year fails to knock out Miller, losing 52-47. R hold.

AK Legislature: Republicans lose one seat in House, stand pat in the Senate.

Hawaii

HI-Gov: Shan Tsutsui dominates the primary and general election to easily succeed David Ige as Governor of Hawaii, with his cash and establishment advantage keeping away most challengers in a dull affair of an election.

HI-Sen: Brian Schatz cruises to another term in the Senate.

HI House: Both incumbents reelected with little issue after Tulsi Gabbard decides not to run for Governor and continue to work her way up in the House.

HI Legislature: Democrats maintain their massive advantage in both houses.

[Maxwell]

Mead Treadwell as the conservative challenger to Lisa Murkowski striked me as an odd choice, but otherwise the Alaska results look interesting and I could definitely see occurring.

[KingSweden]

Mead Treadwell as the conservative challenger to Lisa Murkowski striked me as an odd choice, but otherwise the Alaska results look interesting and I could definitely see occurring.

I wasn't sure who else to go with since I doubt Sean Parnell would risk a primary against Murko after what happened to him in 2014 and I wanted Miller in the House seat - figured it was best to go with a known name rather than some random state senator.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2022

Florida

FL-Gov: Gwen Graham governs conservatively and effectively, but still clashes with her conservative state legislature and struggles to with her approval ratings, floating around in the high-to-mid 40s. The GOP primary is wide open, with Jeff Miller and Florida CFO Carlos Curbelo emerging as the main candidates, with Dan Webster in 3rd. Curbelo wins the 3-way affair, setting him up to share a ticket with the popular fellow Cuban Rubio and potentially negate the Democratic advantage with Hispanic voters. Though Graham is going strong most of the campaign, Curbelo narrowly edges her thanks to eliminating her margins in the I-4 corridor, running up the score in Cuban neighborhoods of Miami and dominating the rural parts of the state, including in Northern Florida. Curbelo wins 49-48, yet another narrow Florida result. R+1.

FL-Sen: Alan Grayson leaves the House and largely clears the field to take on Rubio, with many Democrats skeptical about his chances of winning but not wanting to tangle with a man popular with the grassroots. Grayson winds up losing to Rubio, 52-46, as was expected. R Hold.

Row Officers: Evers and Galvano reelected as Ag Commish and AG, respectively. State Senator Matt Hudson is elected CFO to replace Curbelo.

----

These maps come to us courtesy of Wulfric, who did a fantastic job. Here are the districts, as well as the 2008 breakdowns:







1. 67-33 McCain
2. 63-37 McCain
3. 52-48 Obama
4. 54-46 McCain
5. 60-40 Obama (49.0% White, 23.3% Black, 22.4% Hispanic)
6. 65-35 McCain
7. 51-49 Obama
8. 51-49 Obama
9. 53-47 McCain
10. 58-42 Obama (49.6% White, 34.8% Hispanic)
11. 53-47 McCain
12. 52-48 McCain
13. 53-47 Obama
14. 64-36 Obama (48.1% White, 25.5% Hispanic, 21.8% Black)
15. 51-49 McCain
16. 56-44 McCain
17. 50.3-49.7 McCain
18. 52-48 McCain
19. 56-44 McCain
20. 55-45 Obama
21. 62-38 Obama
22. 70-30 Obama (46.9% White, 26.5% Black, 22.2% Hispanic)
23. 67-33 Obama
24. 70-30 Obama (36.5% White, 33.4% Hispanic, 24.7% Black)
25. 80-20 Obama (41.8% Hispanic, 35.9% Black, 19.2% White)
26. 63-37 McCain (90.9% Hispanic)
27. 57-43 McCain (59.6% Hispanic, 34.1% White)
28. 58-42 Obama (55.8% Hispanic, 28.1% White, 12.4% Black)

-----

FL-1: State Senator Clay Ingram replaces Jeff Miller in this beyond-safe district.

FL-2: Halsey Beshears reelected here.

FL-3: A swingy, barely-Democratic district connecting Florida's two main college towns. State Senator Mia Jones, a Democrat, is unable to win here with the wave swinging hard against Democrats in northern Florida and barely loses to State Rep. Chuck Perlman (fictional) by less than 2,000 votes.

FL-4: Ted Yoho winds up in this seat that is much less safe for his brand of very right-wing politics, but wins regardless with the wave at his back.

FL-5: This is essentially the seat Alan Grayson is giving up, covering much of Orlando. Former State Senator Darren Soto replaces Grayson here with little issue.

FL-6: Ander Crenshaw finds himself in this friendly territory moving forward.

FL-7: Corrine Brown runs in this narrowly R-leaning district. Worried about her ability to stay in Congress with her very liberal record and the fact that she has never represented a district this conservative, former Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown runs against her in the primary. Corinne dispatches Alvin with little problem in the primary, but runs into trouble in the general, where term-limited State Rep. Jay Fant knocks Brown out 51-49 in one of the tightest election races in Florida history, with Brown leading the count for much of the night. R+1.

FL-8: Travis Hutson reelected.

FL-9: After having a little of his district connected with Thad Altman's district, Jason Brodeur announces he will face off in a primary against Altman. The older Altman is defeated narrowly by Brodeur and so Brodeur wins with little issue.

FL-10: A minority-majority district in the Orlando area, former US Rep. Randolph Bracy returns to run in this suburban Orlando district, which he wins fairly easily.

FL-11: Since Dan Webster ran for Governor, it was easy to attach his district to Dennis Ross'. Ross reelected easily.

FL-12: Rich Nugent reelected in this district, which is less conservative than his old district.

FL-13: Charlie Justice reelected with little trouble here.

FL-14: Kathy Castor cruises to another term in Congress.

FL-15: A swingy district where Gus Biliraikis still has no trouble getting reelected yet once again.

FL-16: Tom Rooney safe in this district.

FL-17: This is where Joe Negron winds up. Despite the district being a pure swing district, he narrowly defeats local business owner Calvin Thompson.

FL-18: Greg Steube reelected.

FL-19: Curt Clawson reelected.

FL-20: Ted Deutch reelected.

FL-21: State Senator Jared Moskowitz elected here in this new district.

FL-22: Alcee Hastings reelected.

FL-23: With the retirement of Lois Frankel, a Fort Lauderdale-based district emerges. Bobby DuBose, a term-limited State Rep., wins here.

FL-24: Evan Jenne reelected in this very diverse district.

FL-25: Frederica Wilson retiring opens up this Miami-area seat for State Senator Jose Javier Rodriguez. D hold.

FL-26: Mario Diaz-Balart cruises to reelection in a safe R district.

FL-27: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, safer than ever, wins yet another term in Congress.

FL-28: Dwight Bullard, in a much safer D district than before, cruises to a fourth term in Congress.

FL Legislature: The State Senate remains 23-17, while Republicans pick up two House seats to go to 75-45.

[Enderman]

FINALLY! lol Anyways it looks quite good

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Ugh, finally that hag Frankel is out!

[KingSweden]

From the author:

Thank you all, as always, for your loyal readership, positive words and encouragement. Right now I'm working on getting my Texas map finished, and there will be no map for CA, unfortunately (I'll keep current district numbers roughly if possible). After 2022 is all finished up, I will take a brief sabbatical to work on some other writing projects, particularly one I've been editing and trying to publish. EOTNM will continue on, but maybe at a slower/less detailed pace than before.

Regards,

KingSweden

[KingSweden]

It is finally done: Texas 2020. I hope you all like this map, because it took me a hell of a long time to make.









I'll break down all the districts vote percentages when I do the election update.

[badgate]

Wow! Amazing and very interesting DFW districts. excited for the update

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2022

Texas (Part 1)

TX-1: Louie Gohmert's large blue East Texas district now includes Texarkana and has been shifted significantly north. McCain earned 69% of the vote here, Safe R. Gohmert reelected unopposed.

TX-2: This green Houston-area district is drawn to include most of west-central Houston and its inner suburbs. Ted Poe is drawn out of this 53%-46% McCain/Obama district, making it one of the three new open seats on the map. State Rep. Jim Murphy runs here and is elected with relative ease, though this area is trending Democratic at a fairly rapid pace - Clinton won 49% of the vote here in 2020.

TX-3: This purple-colored Collin County seat is a Republican stronghold, with McCain winning 60% of the vote here in 2008. Strong Hispanic and out-of-state growth has pushed it a little more D in the ensuing years, but the outer Dallas suburbs remain staunchly GOP. As such, Van Taylor has no trouble with his reelection campaign.

TX-4: John Ratcliffe retires after four terms in Congress, citing his belief in term limits, frustrations with Washington and desire to run for Texas Attorney General as he approaches his retirement years. This allows GOP leaders to draw his home in Heath into the 5th and create a new TX-4, a district where McCain won 70% of the vote in '08, one of the most conservative districts in Texas and the United States. GOP State Rep. and pastor Scott Sanford wins the primary runoff against an oil investor to win here.

TX-5: Jeb Hensarling's district now includes most of Kaufman and Ellis Counties after some major redistricting changes, but at 62-37 McCain/Obama his seat remains Safe GOP and he is reelected once again.

TX-6: Tipped off to the changes coming down the pike thanks to the booming growth in Texas' cities, Joe Barton quietly sells his large home in Ellis and moves to Arlington to stay in the 6th (blue district between Dallas and FW). The district was 51-48 McCain, which gives some Republicans pause about having the very conservative Barton running in what is rapidly becoming a swing district, but the legislature drew it with the hope that his name recognition and the region's GOP tilt would help them stave off the inevitable. Barton is elected with relative ease after Democrats fail to recruit a candidate willing to take him one.

TX-7: John Culberson is reelected with no problem in this 64-35 McCain district (gray west Harris County).

TX-8: This north-Harris (lime green) area district, home of Kevin Brady, is 75% McCain and is the second-most conservative district in Texas and the 3rd-most Republican in the country after TX-13 and GA-9. Brady cruises to a 14th term.

TX-9: Gene Green is drawn into the 9th (cyan) after Houston-area districts are reconfigured. It is a 73% Obama district with a population that is 70% Hispanic and 17% black as of '08, so even more skewed by '22. Green's ties to the Latino community, which is booming in this area, keep him afloat once again, but there is almost no chance he is succeeded by a white representative.

TX-10: US Rep. Lois Kolkhorst of Brenham has no trouble in her 61-38 McCain district (pink rural district stretching between Austin and Houston area), and benefits from losing many Houston-area precincts.

TX-11: A coup here for Republicans, as TX-11 is shifted east and south (lime green district west of San Antonio, partially in Bexar) to help split Will Hurd's district in pieces. This further dilutes the Hispanic vote in the Rio Grande Valley, and Hurd's home of Helotes winds up in this 70-30 McCain district where he is safe moving forward.

TX-12: US Reps. Phil King is drawn into this district, which adds parts of the old 25th after Roger Williams elects to retire after a decade in Congress (dark green stretching from Austin to west of the Metroplex to OK border). 69-30 makes this Safe GOP territory for King.

TX-13: (Blue panhandle/Amarillo district) McCain earned 77% of the vote here, making it Texas' most conservative and America's most Republican district. Mac Thornberry cruises again, though there are rumblings of a primary challenge against the leadership-cozy Thornberry.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2022

Texas (Part 2)

TX-14: This is essentially the old 36 (and much of the 1), running from Beaumont north in East Texas. Brian Babin reelected here.

TX-15: Essentially unchanged, stretching from the San Antonio area to McAllen as a long "fajita strip". Terry Canales reelected. It is only 53-46 Obama, but in the ensuing years continued Hispanic growth/young immigrants coming of age in this area should boost those figures up to regular 55/56% wins by Democrats.

TX-16: Beto O'Rourke reelected in this El Paso-based district.

TX-17: This district (black from College Station to Nagocdoches) shifts significantly to the east, but at 67-32 McCain remains one of the most conservative districts in the state. Bill Flores cruises.

TX-18: The (yellow) 37% black, 24% Houston district that went 70% for Obama has no issue returning Sheila Jackson Lee to Congress.

TX-19: The Lubbock/Abilene district went 71% to McCain - Randy Neugebauer easily returned.

TX-20: In an ostensibly safer district (brown South San Antonio), Joaquin Castro is reelected with no trouble in a 66% Obama district.

TX-21: A (dark purplish-blue) 54-45 McCain district that includes a rural swath stretching up to exurban Dallas and a T-shaped region connecting Austin and San Antonio is where Lamar Smith seeks a 17th term in Congress. Both redistricting and demographic shifts in his area makes it modestly less Republican than its R+11 predecessor, closer to R+5. As long as Smith is around, it is still probably too hard for Team D. Smith reelected with 60% of the vote after seeing off a primary challenge by arch-conservative State Senator Brian Birdwell, whom he defeats without a runoff thanks largely to Bexar/Travis area voters.

TX-22: Houston's southwest suburbs (brown Sugar Land area) return Pete Olson in a Safe R 59% McCain district.

TX-23: Though this district continues to gradually trend D, it now contains the Permian Basin (part of the redistricting ploy to beef up the perennially vulnerable Will Hurd) and this is where Mike Conaway winds up. McCain got 59% here, but by now this district has moved a few points more D (and by that, it's more like R+10 as opposed to R+15).

TX-24: Kenny Marchant retires from this (light blue north Dallas suburbs) district. He is replaced by his son, Carrollton Mayor Matt Marchant, who wins with no issue in a district McCain won with 64%.

TX-25: A Central Texas (pink Waco/Temple) district, this is where US Rep. Peggy Bartlett winds up. She faces arch-conservative State Rep. Molly White of Belton in the primary. White runs against Bartlett, attacking her for working with Democrats and being insufficiently conservative, and after only one term in the House is defeated 50.2-49.8 in the runoff in a rare female vs. female race in a Republican primary. In a 61% McCain district, this is tantamount to election.

TX-26: Contained entirely in (gray) Denton County, this district was 62% McCain. Michael C. Burgess cruises to an 11th term in Congress.

TX-27: Corpus Christi and coastal-based (light blue) district reelects Blake Farenthold despite the Congressman's multiple ethics issues, thanks to a 58% McCain tint.

TX-28: This district stretches from Southern Bexar County south to Laredo and even includes part of McAllen. In a district that went 68% to Obama and was 89% Hispanic in 2008 (even more now), the Democratic primary, especially amongst Latino candidates, is tantamount to election. Henry Cuellar dispatches the more liberal Laredo City Councilman George Martinez (fictional) in a landslide and cruises to yet another term in the United States House.

TX-29: Al Green winds up here, effectively swapping seats with Gene Green. This heavily-gerrymandered (gray west-central Houston) seat snakes across Houston, connecting larger areas north and south of the city via a narrow corridor. It went 65% for Obama and is 46% Hispanic and 24% black. Green is unchallenged, but this seat will likely seat a Hispanic candidate when he eventually retires.

TX-30: 65% Obama and 45% black/36% Hispanic, this district (pink central Dallas and south Dallas suburbs) reelects US Rep. Eric Johnson, one of the most bipartisan liberals in Congress, with little issue. Johnson is tapped to chair the CBC in the upcoming term.

TX-31: The northern Austin suburbs (gold, Round Rock area and part of Travis) is an open seat with Bartlett moved to the 25th. 51-48 McCain in '08, after redistricting and demographic growth this is a rare true swing district in Texas. In a six-year itch midterm, however, it swings right, electing State Rep. Larry Gonzales to Congress over Eddie Rodriguez.

TX-32: Pete Sessions is reelected easily, though his (orange North Dallas) district is now 53-46 McCain and ever-so-slightly more vulnerable to Democrats as the boom in inner Texas suburbs continues to add more moderate voters to places like north Dallas.

TX-33: Democratic leadership member Marc Veasey is reelected in his very safe 68% Obama (green gerrymander in Forth Worth and Dallas) district. Though his district is 52% Hispanic, he faces no challenge in the primary due to his strong connections in the local community.

TX-34: Filemon Vela is elected to what he pledges will be his last term in Congress. Though liberal State Rep. Eddie Lucio III debates jumping in to challenge the centrist Vela, he decides against it at the last minute. In a 90% Hispanic district that went 66% for Obama, Vela of course faces barely any opposition in the general.

TX-35: Lloyd Doggett does it again, reelected in a similar (purple San Antonio/Austin) district that is 45% Hispanic, 42% white in 2008 (probably a little more of both by 2022, with white liberals growing in Austin and Hispanic immigration to San Antonio). 63% Obama, has no issue with reelection.

TX-36: 61-38 McCain (orange Galveston area). Randy Weber thumps his way to reelection once again.

TX-37: (Pink West Tarrant County and Fort Worth). Contained entirely within Tarrant, this is one of the new districts Republicans have to play with. They carve out a 62% McCain district here where another arch-conservative female State Rep., 66-year old Stephanie Klick, is elected after consolidating conservative support in the primary and winning the runoff. She defeats Democrat Joe Chavez (fictional) 70-27 in the general.

TX-38: Another part of the GOP's redistricting master plan carves out a swingy north-Bexar district (light blue). At 52-47 McCain/Obama, it is nominally GOP after growth in this area, but it beats risking any more incumbents. A big get for Republicans here in Joe Straus, the former GOP Speaker of the State House. Straus, unseated in a conservative coup in 2019, leaves his longtime spot in the Texas House and becomes the first Jewish Republican in the Texas House delegation (citation needed; for all I know, he's the first Jewish Congressman from TX, period). With a moderate (by Texas standards) profile and establishment support, Democrats punt on trying to challenge Straus.

TX-39: The final district is essentially Ted Poe's old 2nd, which as you remember was drawn entirely into Houston. This district contains eastern and northern Harris suburbs (pink district) and went 58-41 for McCain. Safe R, Poe cruises to another term in Congress.

-------

TX Governor: Greg Abbott honors his commitment to term limits and retires after two terms. Though US Rep. John Ratcliffe and Ted Cruz are both looked at initially to run for the office, both decline, leaving the primary effectively open for Land Commissioner George P. Bush, scion of the Bush family, to run. After scaring away any serious candidates with his institutional support both with mainstream conservatives and the right wing of the Texas GOP and swatting away several minnows, Bush advances to the general to face star Democratic recruit Julian Castro, who has spent years building a war chest, "TexDem" operation and campaigning-in-all-but name.

In a conservative state like Texas in a six-year itch election, Bush should be guaranteed the election, but with Castro's firepower and investment it becomes a genuine race. Bush runs on his family legacy, Texas' continued economic growth, his ties to the Hispanic community and his pledge to serve no more than two terms. Castro, meanwhile, runs as a "New Texan" and cites low wages, poor schools and the rise of radicalism in the Texas Legislature as reasons to have a "check and counterweight, not a rubber stamp." Castro pours millions into turning out the young children of Hispanic immigrants, thousands of whom have recently turned 18, particularly in increasingly swingy suburbs, and trains his focus on white liberals and moderate post-graduates in many of Texas's booming cities. Bush takes nothing for granted, however, and turns on the Texas GOP's turnout machine. As Democrats get hammered across the country, it is in Texas of all places that they miraculously have a terrific pickup opportunity and a race that goes down to the wire. In the end, the state is too Republican and Bush has too much cachet, and despite polling showing Castro with a single-digit lead and promising exit polls, Bush wins 52-47, a surprisingly decisive margin but hardly the kind of blowout Texas Republicans are accustomed to. R hold.

TX Lt. Gov - Dan Patrick seeks the office again and faces State Senator Kirk Watson of Austin, whom he defeats easily, winning 56-40.

TX AG - John Ratcliffe faces appointed AG Joan Huffman in the primary, after Huffman reneged on a pledge to only serve out the remainder of Senator Ken Paxton's term. Ratcliffe defeats Huffman in the first round and goes on to defeat State Rep. Abel Herrero 54-45 in a race that initially looked competitive until polling broke to Ratcliffe late in the race.

TX Land Commish - Bush is replaced by businessman Joe Caty (fictional), who wins the general election unopposed after winning the GOP primary  in the runoff against a splintered conservative field.

TX Ag Commish - Sid Miller is elected to a third term with little issue. Democrats punt on the race completely, making it the second statewide race that they choose not to field a candidate for.

TX Rail Commish - After initially debating running for Governor, Ryan Sitton seeks a third term in office and defeats State Rep. Dawnna Dukes in the general election 70-27.

TX Legislature: Thanks to strong Democratic nominees in several statewide races and House districts, results here are actually not half bad. Democrats pick up one seat in the Senate to buck the national tide - one of the few state legislatures where Democrats GAIN seats - to earn a 19-12 result in the Senate. In the House, however, they lose three districts to drop to 98-52.

[KingSweden]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This is as close to a CA map as we're going to get. This is Muon's CD/UCC projection for California. Obviously, we don't have district lines here, which is unfortunate but necessary.

My ballpark for where #54 goes would be to renumber the San Diego districts so that everything 48 and after is shifted south. I.e. the 48th is the new district, housed in east LA/Riverside County, and all other districts are shifted slightly southwards as a result, with today's 48th becoming 49th, etc.

At the start of this cycle, Democrats had 37 House seats to 16 for the GOP, with a new district added. I'll try to estimate how that changes in the next update. Any suggestions are more than welcome.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2022

California

CA-Gov: Gavin Newsom faces no trouble in the primary, despite rumblings about John Chiang or Ben Allen running against him from the left. Chiang heads to the private sector instead and Allen seeks reelection. Faulconer, at this point having left office, elects not to challenge Newsom again. Newsom, popular despite critical droughts, has expanded the franchise through automatic registration, reformed CEQA to cut down on NIMBYism, and has helped grow government healthcare programs at fairly low costs, has cut the costs of the Cal HSR system and expanded and reinvested in the state's university system. With a strong position, Newsom faces 41-year old evangelical preacher Ryan Curtis after no serious Republicans make a bid for the office. Newsom crushes Curtis in the top-two 64-46, a margin that surprises even many on his own campaign. Newsom immediately vaults to the top of Democrats' 2028 list.

CA-Row Officers: Ben Allen and Dave Jones are reelected as AG and Lieutenant Governor, respectively. Betty Yee (Controller), Matt Dababneh (SOS) and Tony Mendoza (Superintendent) are all reelected too. To replace Chiang, State Senator Chris Toole (fictional) is elected as Treasurer. All statewide officers remain Democrats.

CA-Sen: Garcetti reelected to a full term in his own right. There are rumblings about future Presidential aspirations from the state's senior Senator in the future as well.

----

(I apologize if this feels incomplete compared to some of the maps I've done earlier. This is my best stab at California's House results this midterm).

With the map squeezing more districts into metro areas, there are few opportunities for the GOP to press their advantage.

CA-1: LaMalfa reelected.

CA-2: Marin/Sonoma. Huffman reelected.

CA-3: This is where Doris Matsui ends up after the districts are once again shaken out.

CA-4: Ami Bera and Tom McClintock are drawn into an exurban Sacto district together, where McClintock dispatches Bera fairly easily.

CA-5: Mike Thompson retires. His Napa-area district finds him replaced by 34-year old State Rep. Travis Kyle (fictional) who has no trouble getting reelected.

CA-6: In a slightly safer area, Rep. Alan Hill is narrowly reelected, once again over James Gallagher.

CA-7: The new Stockton district. Jerry McNerney safe.

CA-8: Anthony Cannella's new Modesto-based district, taking in much of the old 8th and his old 10th. With many more Republican areas attached, Cannella is now more than safe.

CA-9-18: The next ten districts are all couched in the Bay Area, where all nine current incumbents are reelected. (In order: DeSaulnier, Chiu, Lee, Speier, Swalwell, Honda, Gadwaddy, Low). In the San Jose/South Bay area, a new district is created (the 17th) where 37-year old Democratic State Rep. Charlie Chang (fictional) is elected, and on the San Francisco Peninsula is couched the new 18th, where businessman and entrepreneur Dustin Moskovitz - a Facebook founder - is elected.

CA-19 (Brown Monterey District): Sam Farr of Carmel winds up in this district, and the 81-year old incumbent surprises most California political observers when he elects to serve another term.

CA-20: The more northern of the two Fresno-area districts reelects Ashley Swearengin with little issue.

CA-21: In the more Southern of the two Fresno-area districts, Amanda Renteria is defeated by the man she once replaced, David Valadao, whose comeback after several years serving as State GOP chair results in a 51-49 victory in this swing district.

CA-22: Devin Nunes reelected in one of the Bakersfield-area districts.

CA-23: Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy has little difficulty here, for obvious reasons.

---

CA-24-54: These are your So Cal seats. 24th-43rd are in the Los Angeles/OC area, while the others are in the San Diego/Riverside county area. Really, though, these should all be roughly combined into one giant metro. Most existing seats can be assumed to be in the same area they currently are located in, unless otherwise noted, only denser.

The rundown:

CA-24: Das Williams reelected
CA-25: Tony Strickland reelected
CA-26: Julia Brownley reelected
CA-27: Judy Chu reelected
CA-28: Adam Schiff reelected
CA-29: Tony Cardenas reelected
CA-30: Brad Sherman reelected
CA-31: Pete Aguilar reelected
CA-32: Ed Hernandez reelected
CA-33: Ted Lieu reelected


CA-34: In one of the biggest political surprises in the history of the United States, former Speaker and sitting House Minority Leader Xavier Becerra retires from Congress to run for Mayor of Los Angeles, pledging to stay on as leader until after the elections so that he can step down for Joe Crowley. The field is cleared and Becerra is easily elected mayor. The move is surprising and is a major morale blow to Democrats, as it is seen as a sign that even their own leader knows they are set up for losses in the House. He is replaced by City Councilman José Huizar. D Hold.

CA-35: Norma Torres reelected

CA-36: Paul Cook debates seeking a sixth term, but doesn't, eliminating the biggest threat to Raul Ruiz's reelection after the 36th loses much of eastern Riverside County, making this seat much safer for Ruiz. D hold.

CA-37: Karen Bass reelected.
CA-38: Linda Sanchez reelected.
CA-39: Ashley Force Hood wins in a landslide Ed Royce reelected
CA-40: Lucille Roybal reelected
CA-41: Mark Takano reelected.


CA-42: Ken Calvert retires after 30 years in Congress. He is replaced by Eric Linder, a State Senator.

CA-43: Chris Brown reelected
CA-44: Isadore Hall reelected
CA-45: Mimi Walters reelected
CA-46: Loretta Sanchez reelected
CA-47: Alan Lowenthal reelected

CA-48: Located entirely in eastern Riverside County and much of Imperial County, this new district is perfectly placed to send a Republican to Congress, and indeed it does. State Senator Jeff Stone heads to Congress. R+1.

CA-49: Dana Rohrabacher reelected.
CA-50: Darrell Issa reelected
CA-51: Duncan Hunter reelected
CA-52: Juan Vargas reelected
CA-53: Scott Peters reelected
CA-54: Susan Davis reelected

CA Legislature: Republicans gain one seat in the Senate to go to 26-14, just barely denying a supermajority for Democrats. Republicans also gain three seats in the Assembly to cut the D advantage to 56-24.

[KingSweden]

Final House Totals for Beginning of the 118th Congress:

AL: 6R-0D
AK: 1R-0D
AZ: 6R-3D
AR: 4R-0D
CA: 15R-39D
CO: 4R-4D
CT: 1R-4D
DE: 0R-1D
FL: 17R-11D
GA: 9R-5D
HI: 0R-2D
IA: 1R-3D
ID: 2R-0D
IL: 7R-10D
IN: 7R-2D
KS: 4R-0D
KY: 5R-1D
LA: 5R-1D
MA: 0R-9D
MD: 2R-6D
ME: 0R-2D
MI: 7R-6D
MN: 1R-6D
MO: 6R-2D
MS: 3R-1D
MT: 1R-0D
NC: 10R-4D
ND: 1R-0D
NE: 3R-0D
NH: 1R-1D
NJ: 3R-9D
NM: 1R-2D
NV: 2R-2D
NY: 10R-16D
OH: 11R-4D
OK: 5R-0D
OR: 4R-2D
PA: 12R-5D
RI: 0R-1D
SC: 6R-1D
SD: 1R-0D
TN: 7R-2D
TX: 28R-11D
UT: 4R-0D
VA: 6R-6D
VT: 0R-1D
WA: 3R-7D
WI: 5R-3D
WV: 2R-0D
WY: 1R-0D

240R-195D. R+16, which isn't that much but you have to consider that the redistricting was somewhat favorable to Democrats in many areas. It is still a pretty substantial House majority for Kevin McCarthy, who has had narrow majorities for most of his Speakership.

[KingSweden]

House freshman classes for the 118th Congress:

GOP

AK-AL: Joe Miller
AL-3: Dimitri Polizos*
AZ-5: Jeff Dial
AZ-6: Michelle Ugenti
CA-21: David Valadao*
CA-42: Eric Linder
CA-48: Jeff Stone
CO-4: Cory Gardner
CT-5: Clark Chapin*
FL-1: Clay Ingram
FL-3: Chuck Perlman
FL-7: Jay Fant*
GA-11: Ed Setzler
IA-4: Megan Jones
ID-1: Curtis McKenzie
IN-2: Ryan Mishler*
IN-3: Jim Banks
KY-2: Mike Meredith
LA-1: pending runoff
MI-1: Justin Pennington*
MO-8: Mike Angler
NH-1: Chuck Morse*
NC-2: Harry Brown
NC-11: Dean Arp
NC-13: Justin Burr
NV-3: Mike Roberson
NY-2: Phil Boyle*
NY-3: Brian Curran*
NY-8: David Storobin*
NY-17: Karl Brabenec*
NY-22: Christopher Friend* (special)
NY-23: Joane Mahoney*
OH-9: Ryan Wilson
OH-13: Frank LaRose
OR-2: Mike McLane
OR-4: Tony Cooney*
OR-5: Larry George*
OR-6: Mark Johnson*
PA-6: Chuck McIlhinney*
PA-7: Martin Tuck
PA-8: Justin Simmons
PA-14: Tommy Sankey
TN-6: Ryan Williams
TX-2: Jim Murphy
TX-4: Scott Sanford
TX-25: Molly White
TX-31: Larry Gonzales
TX-37: Stephanie Klick
TX-38: Joe Straus
VA-5: Chris Peace
VA-9: Greg Habeeb
WA-3: Liz Pike*
WI-7: Scott Krug*

Democrats

CA-5: Travis Kyle
CA-17: Charlie Chang
CA-18: Dustin Moskovitz
CA-34: José Huizar
CO-7: Morgan Carroll
CO-8: Brittany Pettersen
FL-5: Darren Soto
FL-10: Randolph Bracy
FL-21: Jared Moskowitz
FL-23: Bobby DuBose
FL-25: José Javier Rodriguez
GA-6: Eric Stanton*
IA-3: Kyle Orton
IL-8: Jordan Casey
IL-12: Don Harmon
MA-1: Eric Lesser
MA-6: Brendan Creighton
MA-7: Josh Zakim
MD-2: Ken Ulman
MD-7: Marilyn Mosby
NC-3: Antwan Jackson
NC-4: Grier Martin
NJ-1: Gabriela Mosquera
NJ-7: Sharif Ibrahim*
NJ-9: Angelica Jimenez
NJ-12: Reed Gusciora
NY-20: David Soares
OH-4: Mike Stinziano
OR-3: Jessica Vega-Pederson
PA-2: Seth Williams
VA-11: Scott Surovell
VA-12: Mike Futrell

[KingSweden]

Senate freshmen:

GOP

AK: Lance Pruitt
AL: Martha Roby (special, elected June 2022)
AZ: Doug Ducey*
GA: Rob Woodall
IA: Pat Grassley
KY: Brett Guthrie
MO: Shane Schoeller*
NC: Richard Hudson*
NH: Chris Sununu*
NV: Mark Hutchison

Republicans gain four Democratic seats and hold all of their open seats.

Democrats

OR: Brent Barton

[badgate]

2022 Midterm Maps

Senate

Governor

[KingSweden]

Leadership for the 118th Congress:

House GOP

Speaker: Kevin McCarthy
House Majority Leader: Cathy McMorris-Rodgers
House Majority Whip: Luke Messer
Caucus Chair: Tom Price
Caucus Vice-Chair: Lynn Jenkins
Chief Deputy Whip: Patrick McHenry
Policy Committee Chair: Tom Rooney
NRCC Chair: Pete Olson

House Democrats

House Minority Leader: Joe Crowley
House Minority Whip: Diana DeGette
Democratic Caucus Chair: Tom Bakk
Democratic Caucus Vice-Chair: Ben Ray Lujan
Assistant Minority Leader (new position created by Crowley): Brenda Lawrence
Chief Deputy Whip: Marc Veasey
Policy Committee Chair (new position created by Crowley): Evan Low
DCCC Chair: Joaquin Castro
DCCC Vice-Chair: Jennifer Wexton

[KingSweden]

I'll post a final map this evening.

Muchas gracias!

[KingSweden]

November 2022: Heinrich is contrite after the drubbing suffered by Democrats', inviting McCarthy and Thune to the White House the morning after the midterms. The pundit class begins to ask the inevitable question: can Heinrich, who seems shell-shocked, survive 2024? It is not lost on anyone that Republicans had smashing wins they failed to build on in 2010 and 2014 as well. A massive snowstorm blankets the Northeast once again after a dry summer, flooding many parts of New England. There are rumors emerging by the end of the month that much of the Cabinet is planning to jump ship in January. Super PACs friendly to Brian Sandoval and Mick Mulvaney are formed by the end of the month.

November 2022 (continued): The situation in North Korea worsens and Heinrich authorizes Operation Blue Star, which sends 25,000 Marines and 10,000 UN peacekeepers into Pyongyang to secure the airport and other key infrastructure links while an additional 40,000 Marines, 28,000 UN peacekeepers and two divisions of the South Korean army establish a "safe passage" through southern DPKR territory for refugees. 114 Americans are killed in the first month alone. In Scotland, Holyrood leaders vow to hold a referendum by June 1st, which Osborne once again announces he will refuse to recognize. A massive riot in Edinburgh further polarizes opinion.

[Horsemask]

November 2022: Heinrich is contrite after the drubbing suffered by Democrats', inviting McCarthy and Thune to the White House the morning after the midterms. The pundit class begins to ask the inevitable question: can Heinrich, who seems shell-shocked, survive 2024? It is not lost on anyone that Republicans had smashing wins they failed to build on in 2010 and 2014 as well. A massive snowstorm blankets the Northeast once again after a dry summer, flooding many parts of New England. There are rumors emerging by the end of the month that much of the Cabinet is planning to jump ship in January. Super PACs friendly to Brian Sandoval and Mick Mulvaney are formed by the end of the month.

November 2022 (continued): The situation in North Korea worsens and Heinrich authorizes Operation Blue Star, which sends 25,000 Marines and 10,000 UN peacekeepers into Pyongyang to secure the airport and other key infrastructure links while an additional 40,000 Marines, 28,000 UN peacekeepers and two divisions of the South Korean army establish a "safe passage" through southern DPKR territory for refugees. 114 Americans are killed in the first month alone. In Scotland, Holyrood leaders vow to hold a referendum by June 1st, which Osborne once again announces he will refuse to recognize. A massive riot in Edinburgh further polarizes opinion.

Wooooooooooooooooooooo!

[KingSweden]

December 2022: Some runoff updates - Graves defeats Carter in Georgia, giving Republicans their final gubernatorial pickup. In Louisiana, despite an expensive race and a flood of outside money and candidates appearing to stump, Boustany comfortably defeats Glover 56-44, giving Republicans 51-49 control of the Senate once again. Despite the expected conservative lean of the runoff, Democrats showing up to vote for Glover also vote for Joe Lopinto in the LA-1 runoff, sending a fairly milquetoast moderate to Congress instead of firebrand Montagne.


The violent winter continues, with air travel cancelled in most of the country east of the Mississippi during peak travel weeks, including Christmas. The "Christmas Crisis," a play on the similar name of the Scottish separatist events in England the year before, becomes a major national media story and the failed responses by the FAA and several state transportation agencies plays into the GOP narrative. Heinrich, for all his best efforts, does not come out well. Rumors abound that Scalia is looking at retiring in the next three months with a potentially friendly Senate there to pick a replacement, as his health is in severe decline and he barely survives a bad bout of pneumonia early in the month.

December 2022 (continued): Chinese forces, 60,000 strong, cross the Yalu as part of a joint operation to secure North Korean border regions and pacify the country. More military equipment is secured, but thousands of weapons slip out of the country. Snap elections in Croatia elect a center-left government once more. In the South Korean presidential election, held against the backdrop of mortar shells falling and refugees swarming the country, Ahn's chosen successor Park Won-soon wins over a split field, leading to speculation that Ahn and Park may form a true political party. The win is seen as a major boost for American interests and continuity in the country. Talks between military officials and protesters in Cuba revolve around how to dissolve the state apparatus, with Russ Feingold flying down to Havana to broker negotiations several times per week.

And now, for Sports: Seattle Sounders win their third MLS Cup when they defeat defending champions Orlando City once again 5-3 on penalties after a 0-0 game. Sporting CP, playing in native Portugal, makes its second straight FIFA Club World Cup final and defeats Manchester United 2-0, with both goals coming from 21-year old Israeli striker Jonatan Chazan. Chris Kane, quarterback for Texas, wins the Heisman after leading the Longhorns to a 12-0 regular season and a No. 1 position in the playoffs.

[KingSweden]

2022-23 College Football Playoff

Non Playoff Bowls

Rose Bowl: Washington defeats Ohio State
Sugar Bowl: Tennessee defeats TCU
Cotton Bowl: Arizona defeats Texas A&M
Orange Bowl: Florida State defeats Central Florida

Playoff Bowls

Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. Penn State - Penn State wins
Peach Bowl: Ole Miss vs. USC - USC wins
National Championship: USC vs. Penn State - Penn State wins

[KingSweden]

January 2023: Happy new year! Massive snowstorms and blizzards blanket North America. The college debt crisis keeps unfolding as the rate of defaults continues to spike, leaving increasingly massive amounts of unsecured debt on the government's books and creating concerns about Sallie Mae staying in business as they are unable to refinance many of the loans. Heinrich continues holding high-level meetings with John Thune and Kevin McCarthy to plot out the next steps. Secretary of Commerce Terry McAuliffe and DNR Secretary Heather Wilson both announce they are leaving the Cabinet, and at the end of the month another massive political battle is started when Antonin Scalia announces that after two strokes and his deteriorating health, he intends to retire by the end of the June Supreme Court session, giving Heinrich a chance at another appointment, this time facing a Republican Senate.

January 2023 (continued): Canada's government collapses due to the horrible snowstorm in Ontario after Jim Moore's government loses a confidence vote and he calls snap elections in the middle of winter, an unpopular move that drives Tory numbers even lower. For the first time ever, American and Chinese soldiers fight side-by-side north of Pyongyang against heavily-armed militia groups. The "Group of Six" - USA, China, South Korea, Japan, Russia and NATO - that are coordinating in North Korea establish a Joint Peninsula Command with high-level officials from all six organizations in Seoul to continue pacifying the country. Both the USA and a Chinese-Russian axis are accused of seizing and then wholesaling loose North Korean weapons. The death toll for peacekeeping forces reaches 2,000 by the end of the month, and the minesweeping efforts in the DMZ continue to cause bodily harm. South Korea officially enters recession as the refugee crisis swells and scandal strikes on January 30th when it is revealed that seventy North Korean refugees were murdered in a Chinese refugee camp by security forces there and buried in a shallow grave in the middle of the night nearby, threatening the whole operation.

And now, for Sports: Algeria wins its third straight Africa Cup of Nations. Paul Pogba is given his second consecutive Ballon d'Or, once again receiving criticism for earning it over José Morales. In the NFC Championship Game, the Philadelphia Eagles win at home over the hot-streaking archrival New York Giants to advance to their first Super Bowl in eighteen years. Across the state, defending champion Pittsburgh plays their third straight AFC title game, this time at home, against the Indianapolis Colts, and advance for a chance to win back-to-back titles in an all-Pennsylvania Super Bowl in Dallas.