Analysis of House Races- 2004

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Generally speaking, Gore won less support in Tobacco growing, Coal Mining and poor rural areas than the Dems normally do.

2000 was a strange election in many ways, and that's just one of them.

[Ryan]

AL-5 would probably be Democrat without Cramer, although not with 73.3%...(mid 50's looks about right).

My information on AL-5 shows the opposite. The republican margin was 10% (55-45) in 2000. Where did you get ur info from? I ask so I can cross-check my info.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It was a 10 point GOP lead in the Presidential election, however a mid 50's Dem % seems like the district's "natural" result at congressional level.

[Ryan]

hmm ok.......on what basis?? cause they are a heckva lotta other southern districts with the same Presidential margin. If all of them "tend" democratic then the GOP is in trouble

If this is part of your usual theory that districts with lower income people SHOULD vote democratic...................... as has been already discussed at length, you make a good argument but someone needs to tell THEM that.

If there isnt anything more than that to your theory about Al-5, I think its a natural republican district just as Jim Leach's Iowa district is natural democrat. However both districts have incumbents who "fit" the district, they like em regardless of party and thats that!
Lemme know k?

Ryan.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm no expert on Alabaman politics, but what I do know is that the Democrat vote was seriously depressed in several areas in the last Presidential election.

[DarthKosh]

I'm no expert on Alabaman politics, but what I do know is that the Democrat vote was seriously depressed in several areas in the last Presidential election.

And problely will be again.   Problely more so if Dean is the nom.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not so much Dean(he should do O.K in small towns etc. But not in Alabama), but Kerry et al...

[DarthKosh]

Not so much Dean(he should do O.K in small towns etc. But not in Alabama), but Kerry et al...

I think Dean will be great for the liberal base but a disaster for down ticket races.

[JNB]

 
  A few things. One, should Rep. Bud Cramer retire, the Democrats probably have a 40% chance at best of retaining his seat. He was almost defeated in 94, had a better run but held to 56% in 96, and had to move his record to the right since then. His seat gave Bush 55% of the vote, and like other rural seats in the South, there is less and less ticket splitting going on. The fact that Rep Mike Rogers won in a high Democratic GOTV effort last year in a district that gave Bush a little more than 52% of the vote points to how much steeper the hill Democrats must climb in the South. The vacant seat in TN that voted for a Democrat had about 4% of GOP strength trimmed off(It gave 49% of the vote for Bush in 2000 vs almost 54% in its previous incarnation) that gave him the winning edge(51%). At 55% of the vote, while its not the most Republican seat in the South, it is almost at a point where Democrats will have difficulties trying to remain vaible in it.

[DarthKosh]

 
  A few things. One, should Rep. Bud Cramer retire, the Democrats probably have a 40% chance at best of retaining his seat. He was almost defeated in 94, had a better run but held to 56% in 96, and had to move his record to the right since then. His seat gave Bush 55% of the vote, and like other rural seats in the South, there is less and less ticket splitting going on. The fact that Rep Mike Rogers won in a high Democratic GOTV effort last year in a district that gave Bush a little more than 52% of the vote points to how much steeper the hill Democrats must climb in the South. The vacant seat in TN that voted for a Democrat had about 4% of GOP strength trimmed off(It gave 49% of the vote for Bush in 2000 vs almost 54% in its previous incarnation) that gave him the winning edge(51%). At 55% of the vote, while its not the most Republican seat in the South, it is almost at a point where Democrats will have difficulties trying to remain vaible in it.

Only if the Dem holding the seat retires.

[JNB]

 Exactly, unless there is a tidal wave that is anti Democrat, a wave that we saw in 94, the Democratic incumbents will have little trouble holding on in  the South. Many like Rep McIntyre of NC, Rep. Lucas of KY and Rep Cramer vote with the GOP on a majority of issues anyways.  People also forget the redistricing i n TX, if upheld, should produce at least 5 more GOP seats.

    People need to cast what took place between the mid 50s and 94, the era that Democratcs controled the house aside. The advantages that enabled the Democrats to hold the house, such as a lack of a viable ground level GOP in the south and the Democrats financial advantage backing liberal incumbents in conservative districts in the Midwest is long gone. If the Democratic nominee is painted as a Northren/Northeastren liberal and even loses like Dukakis did in 88, meaning a solid loss but not losing by a landslide, the GOP probably stands to gain 10 house seats. The ability for Democrats down the ticket to survive has been severely compromised because of the financial advantage they once had being gone.

[DarthKosh]

 Exactly, unless there is a tidal wave that is anti Democrat, a wave that we saw in 94, the Democratic incumbents will have little trouble holding on in  the South. Many like Rep McIntyre of NC, Rep. Lucas of KY and Rep Cramer vote with the GOP on a majority of issues anyways.  People also forget the redistricing i n TX, if upheld, should produce at least 5 more GOP seats.

    People need to cast what took place between the mid 50s and 94, the era that Democratcs controled the house aside. The advantages that enabled the Democrats to hold the house, such as a lack of a viable ground level GOP in the south and the Democrats financial advantage backing liberal incumbents in conservative districts in the Midwest is long gone. If the Democratic nominee is painted as a Northren/Northeastren liberal and even loses like Dukakis did in 88, meaning a solid loss but not losing by a landslide, the GOP probably stands to gain 10 house seats. The ability for Democrats down the ticket to survive has been severely compromised because of the financial advantage they once had being gone.

If the Dem canidate lose like Dukakis not only will it be bad in the house it would be devistating in the senate.

[jravnsbo]

The senate is already going to be devastating for the Dems--they have too many open seats in BUsh country.

FL, NC, GA, SC, most likely LA and then Inouye sounds like he will run again in HI ( sho-in, but he will be 80 when he runs and with a GOP gov, if he dies or has to retire GOP picks up another seat)

House-Down goes Lucas in KY to retirement , expect the GOP to guin for this seat and a clean sweep of the Bluegrass state

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Look... I don't have a problem with you airing yours views... but I do have a problem with some of the Usenet like language you have been using.
Tone it down.

[jravnsbo]

?? What? are you talking to me.

What is usenet like language?

ANyone see that CO SCT overturned their redistricting map today?

[JNB]

 Yep, its back to the lines used in the 2002 election in CO. The CO 3rd districts, a seat that will be a open seat should not be too much trouble for the GOP to hold, it gave Bush 54% of the vote in 2000. The CO-7th district, a seat that had the closest election in 2002 has a Republican incumbent, but the area the seat is in voted narrowly for Gore. This will be a very expensive race that will require the GOP to kick up its registrationand get out the vote efforts.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

(Potentially) vunerable incumbents:

+= Potentially in trouble, but should be safe
++= Long shot
+++= In moderate danger of losing
++++= In danger of losing
+++++= In SERIOUS danger of losing

Alabama:
03=Mike Rodgers(R)+++++

Arizona:
01=Rick Renzi(R)+++++

Arkansas:
03=John Boozman(R)+

More soon...

[DarthKosh]

(Potentially) vunerable incumbents:

+= Potentially in trouble, but should be safe
++= Long shot
+++= In moderate danger of losing
++++= In danger of losing
+++++= In SERIOUS danger of losing

Alabama:
03=Mike Rodgers(R)+++++

Arizona:
01=Rick Renzi(R)+++++

Arkansas:
03=John Boozman(R)+

More soon...

Rogers will be help because Alabama is a big Bush state.

[JNB]

 Rep Rodgers is going to have a serious fundraising advantage, and last year he overcame a massive Democratic GOTV effort. At the very worst, his district leans Republican. By the way Pealpolitik, since you are from the UK, why do you have the WVA marker on your name?

  Anyways Realpolitik, as I said before, you really need to understand the cultural dimension(culture wars) of US politics before making more predictions.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm not predicting anything.
Rodger's is very vunerable(he only won by a couple of %), and +++++ seems about right, but he still stands a good chance of winning.

My marker is D-WV, because it is only fair that people know which party I support, and because WV is the state that closest resembles where I live.

[jravnsbo]

what is GOTV?


quote author=JNB link=board=11;threadid=46;start=30#msg3242 date=1071001452]


 Rep Rodgers is going to have a serious fundraising advantage, and last year he overcame a massive Democratic GOTV effort. At the very worst, his district leans Republican. By the way Pealpolitik, since you are from the UK, why do you have the WVA marker on your name?

  Anyways Realpolitik, as I said before, you really need to understand the cultural dimension(culture wars) of US politics before making more predictions.

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[Nym90]

Get Out The Vote

[Ryan]

(Potentially) vunerable incumbents:

Arkansas:
03=John Boozman(R)+

More soon...

Potentially in trouble on what grounds?

Btw didja know Clinton himself lost that district in the early years??

[Filuwaúrdjan]

+ Means vauge chance of an upset more than anything else. I would doubt that anyone rated + will actually lose their seats.
Think of it as a face saving valve

[jravnsbo]

Thune is saying he will decide and announce int eh next few days if he will enter the House race in SD or the Senate race.