Democrat Gubernatorial Election Trends

[Zioneer]

I feel Utah is more flexible than any of the other states there, especially if a Matheson type runs.

Right now, a Matheson type (or specifically Matheson himself) is Utah's only chance for a Democratic Governor. But since he's become a DC lobbyist, I doubt he'll try for governor (or senator) in 2016. Too many opportunities for attack ads against him. Anyone else, even a moderate (see Peter Cooke in 2012) will lose horribly.

Arizona. It's only been since 2006 that they've elected a Democratic governor. Utah hasn't since 1976 IIRC, and I'm not even sure Idaho has ever had a Democratic governor tbh.

You're correct in that Scott Matheson (Jim Matheson's dad) was first elected governor in 1976, though he did win re-election in 1980. Though if I remember correctly, the Democratic nominee in 1988 came within 2% of winning due to a conservative anti-tax independent splitting the Republican vote.

Oh, and Arizona will probably be the first of these states to elect a Democratic governor again. Demographics and a slightly more competent state Democratic party than the other states.

[Zioneer]

You're correct in that Scott Matheson (Jim Matheson's dad) was first elected governor in 1976, though he did win re-election in 1980. Though if I remember correctly, the Democratic nominee in 1988 came within 2% of winning due to a conservative anti-tax independent splitting the Republican vote.

Being a Matheson alone, though, doesn't obviously guarantee you gubernatorial success. Scott Matheson, Jr. in 2004 proved that.

True. Though he was up against Huntsman, who was and is essentially Utah royalty. Scott Jr did pretty well in light of that and 2004 and it's "get the social conservative vote" theme. In any case, Huntsman and Romney are quite popular here, though Huntsman's popularity has diminished for a while, since he's less openly Mormon than Romney.

To get back to my original point, Jim Matheson is the only Utah Democrat who could win a Gubernatorial or Senate race in Utah at this point. And even then, recent polls have shown that he'd have an uphill battle. So I doubt Matheson will even try, which means Utah won't have even a chance of a Democratic Governor for at least this cycle (and probably 2020 as well).

[Zioneer]

What about Doug Owens? He came very close in 2014 in an EXTREMELY Republican district. If he was recruited for Governor in 2018 I think he'd have a serious shot.

If Doug Owens manages to win against Mia Love next year and hold on for a midterm, he'd definitely be a possibility for Governor in 2020.